SHARP Every player, every prop
The book's line is the centre. For each player we show the chance of clearing it, the ladder above and below it, and the games behind the number. Ranked by the size of the role (the posted line); change the sort to see where we lean.
The band is the middle 50% of our simulated outcomes. The centre blends our number with the book's line — the line has been the better single guess, so we never show ours alone.
The ladder chance of clearing each rung · book's price where posted
Recent games hit or miss against the line
Every game is judged against the line shown; move it to check any number. The dashed marks are the lines the books posted for this season's games.
Game log
What drives the number this season
What these terms mean
- Target share
- The share of his team's pass attempts thrown his way. Volume is the most repeatable thing in football, and this is the volume number for a receiver. 25% is a clear number one; 30% and up is elite.
- Targets per game
- How many passes came his way per game this season. Same idea as target share, in raw counts, so you can compare it to a receptions line directly.
- Catch rate
- Catches divided by targets. Turns targets into receptions. Slot and short-area receivers run high (75%+); deep threats run low (55 to 65%).
- Carries per game
- Rushing attempts per game this season. For a back this is the volume number; a line above his carries suggests the book expects more work.
- Attempts per game
- Pass attempts per game. The passing-yards line is mostly this number times yards per attempt.
- Snap share
- The share of his team's plays he was on the field for. Below about 75% means he comes off in some packages; a drop from one week to the next is the first sign of an injury or a role change.
- Spread lean
- How the betting spread expects the game to go for his team. A big favourite runs more late and throws less; a big underdog throws more. It moves rushing volume a lot and passing volume only a little.
Every probability assumes he plays; props void if he does not. Prices are the best we found at pull time and move. We never publish a single projected number: the book's line has been a better forecast than any model's point estimate, so the card shows the shape around it instead.