SHARP The weekly plan — where the money is
Every product on this sheet with its graded record, in order of return on the stake. Profit is edge × volume × stake: the edge is in the shown props, the volume is what the trim allows, and the stake is the lever. One unit on every shown play, the same unit every week.
8 weeks graded
Worth your money graded record at the stated stake, season to date
| product | stake | record | units | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shown props the trimmed groups; positive in 8 of 8 weeks | 1u each | 130–110 · 30 a week | +63.6u | +26% |
| SAFE slip 80%+ floors with a clean log, stacked | 1u | 8 of 21 | +2.6u | +12% |
| MID slip the main pool stacked to +300..+400 | 0.5u | 3 of 6 | +3.6u | +118% |
| MAIN slip surest legs to even money | 1u | 6 of 14 | -1.1u | -8% |
| 3-leg teaser the rule's legs at +160 or better | 1u | 3 of 7 | +0.8u | +11% |
| 2-leg teaser only when two legs are left over, at −120 | 1u | 2 of 3 | +0.7u | +22% |
| PrizePicks power / flex new — tracking | 0.1–0.5u | 11 of 28 | +1.4u | +16% |
| TD ticket likeliest scorers — a coin-flip product | 0.25u | 5 of 14 | +1.1u | +33% |
| Single-game night unders receiving-yds unders at −110..−150 on Thursday / Monday — tracking from Week 7; the record here is what the rule would have done | 1u each | 39–31 | +3.7u | +5% |
Shown for the record only we do not recommend staking these; they are graded so the record stays honest
| product | stake | record | units | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lotto fun ticket | 0.25u | 3 of 22 | +1.2u | +22% |
| Super lottos one leg from every game | 0.1u | 3 of 23 | -0.3u | -14% |
| TD long shot four scorers | 0.25u | 0 of 10 | -2.5u | -100% |
| Favourite moneylines, straight the sim's favourite is the book's; the price already charges for it | — | 78–42 | -3.5u | -3% |
Stake a unit is 3% of bankroll — about a quarter of the Kelly fraction the shown props' record implies; enter yours
unit —expected week — (+7.9u)a bad week — (-6.4u, the worst so far)per play —
Shown props by week under today's rules
| week | record | units |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 22–19 | +2.4u |
| Week 2 | 23–18 | +14.9u |
| Week 3 | 16–11 | +3.3u |
| Week 4 | 24–14 | +19.8u |
| Week 5 | 14–14 | +11.8u |
| Week 6 | 14–14 | +5.2u |
| Week 7 | 7–11 | +1.2u |
| Week 8 | 10–9 | +5.0u |
The rules that keep the record honest. Same unit on every shown play — never size up a play you like. No favourite moneylines straight: the sim starts from the market and the price already charges for the win rate. A parlay only multiplies the edge its legs have, so the teaser legs and the SAFE slip are the only tickets we build; everything in the second table is a tax on action. A bad week will come about one week in five at this hit rate; the plan survives it because the unit never moves.
Game sims
Simulated 40,000 times from the market's own line — the shape (key numbers, likely scores), not a claim to beat the book on the winner.
14 games
6-point teaser — the betthe tickets below are the ones we track: three legs at +160 or better (needs 38.5% to cash, these legs give about 46%), or two legs at −120 when only two remain; one unit each; legs from different days are fine
1 ticket
3 rule legs · 77% a leg on 2016–25
Ticket 1 · 3-leg six-point teaser · price needed +160 or better · chance about 46% · season 3 of 7 (+0.8u)
ATL vs TB · Sun Nov 1
take ATL +8.5 (teased from +2.5) · crosses 3 and 7
leg
KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1
take KC +7.5 (teased from +1.5) · crosses 3 and 7
leg
LV vs NYJ · Sun Nov 1
take LV +7.5 (teased from +1.5) · crosses 3 and 7
leg
season: legs 23–6our tickets: 3-leg 3 of 7 (+0.8u) · 2-leg 2 of 3 (+0.7u)every pairing: 2-leg 45 tickets +10.0u · 3-leg 40 tickets +22.4uover 8 weeks
This week: 10 of 13 winners (77%) · spread 4-9 · total 7-6 · teaser legs 2-1 · Brier 0.170 · 1 game still to play. Weeks 1–7: 68 of 107 winners (64%) · spread 62-45 · total 51-56 · teaser legs 21-5 · Brier 0.233. The "winner" is the side the sim favours, and because the sim starts from the market's own line that is the book's favourite every time — so the winner count shows whether our percentages are honest, not that we beat the book. Spread and total calls are the side the sim leans, graded against the game's posted line.
Moneylines, graded at the book's price: 50–55% favourites 1–1 (-0.1u) · 55–65% favourites 43–30 (-2.8u) · 65–75% favourites 27–5 (+4.2u) · 75%+ favourites 7–6 (-4.9u). The sim starts from the market, so its favourite is the book's favourite and the price already charges for it — a win rate that matches the stated percentage nets to nothing, and one loss at −400 costs four wins. Read the percentages as confidence for the teaser legs, not as a moneyline bet.
Thu Oct 29 · 1 game
CAR @ GB
8:15 PM ET · Thu Oct 29 · outdoors
most likely CAR 20 – GB 23
FAVOURITE WON final CAR 19 – GB 27
40K
SIMS
SIMS
CAR
Bryce Young
38%
21.6 expected points
VS
GB
Jordan Love
62%
24.9 expected points
WinnerGB lean · 62%
Totalno lean at 46.5 · sim 46.5
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 45–49 · 15% of sims
2035line · 46.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadGB -3.5 covers 47% · CAR +3.5 covers 53% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 15% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
CARGB
Pass offense4178
Rush offense7812
Pass defense3478
Rush defense3116
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
Sun Nov 1 · 12 games
TEN @ CIN
1:00 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely TEN 20 – CIN 23
FAVOURITE WON final TEN 36 – CIN 43
40K
SIMS
SIMS
TEN
Cam Ward
12%
16.2 expected points
VS
CIN
Joe Burrow
88%
29.1 expected points
WinnerCIN strong · 88%
Totalno lean at 45.5 · sim 45.3
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 45–49 · 15% of sims
2035line · 45.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadCIN -13.5 covers 50% · TEN +13.5 covers 50% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 10% · on exactly 7: 6% — why the teaser rule exists
TENCIN
Pass offense1297
Rush offense2559
Pass defense4447
Rush defense3819
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
IND @ JAX
1:00 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely IND 20 – JAX 23
FAVOURITE WON final IND 7 – JAX 42
40K
SIMS
SIMS
IND
Daniel Jones
18%
17.9 expected points
VS
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
81%
27.5 expected points
WinnerJAX strong · 81%
Totalno lean at 45.5 · sim 45.4
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 45–49 · 15% of sims
2035line · 45.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadJAX -10.0 covers 44% · IND +10.0 covers 53% · push 4% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 12% · on exactly 7: 8% — why the teaser rule exists
INDJAX
Pass offense688
Rush offense7569
Pass defense6956
Rush defense6994
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
NE @ MIA
4:25 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely NE 20 – MIA 17
FAVOURITE WON final NE 24 – MIA 19
40K
SIMS
SIMS
NE
Drake Maye
74%
24.1 expected points
VS
MIA
Malik Willis
26%
17.4 expected points
WinnerNE strong · 74%
Totalno lean at 41.5 · sim 41.4
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 40–44 · 15% of sims
2035line · 41.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadNE -7.0 covers 43% · MIA +7.0 covers 52% · push 6% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 15% · on exactly 7: 8% — why the teaser rule exists
NEMIA
Pass offense9428
Rush offense2266
Pass defense259
Rush defense3441
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
ARI @ DAL
1:00 PM ET · Sun Nov 1
most likely ARI 27 – DAL 24
UPSET final ARI 33 – DAL 30
40K
SIMS
SIMS
ARI
Jacoby Brissett
27%
23.9 expected points
VS
DAL
Dak Prescott
73%
30.5 expected points
WinnerDAL strong · 73%
Totalno lean at 54.5 · sim 54.4
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 50–54 · 15% of sims
2035line · 54.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadDAL -7.0 covers 43% · ARI +7.0 covers 52% · push 5% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 14% · on exactly 7: 8% — why the teaser rule exists
ARIDAL
Pass offense2562
Rush offense5697
Pass defense03
Rush defense5328
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
LAC @ LA
4:05 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · dome
most likely LAC 17 – LA 20
FAVOURITE WON final LAC 9 – LA 24
40K
SIMS
SIMS
LAC
Justin Herbert
28%
19.7 expected points
VS
LA
Matthew Stafford
71%
25.8 expected points
WinnerLA strong · 71%
Totalno lean at 45.5 · sim 45.5
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 45–49 · 15% of sims
2035line · 45.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadLA -6.5 covers 46% · LAC +6.5 covers 54% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 14% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
LACLA
Pass offense356
Rush offense3881
Pass defense9159
Rush defense1281
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
PHI @ WAS
8:20 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely PHI 17 – WAS 20
FAVOURITE WON final PHI 10 – WAS 27
40K
SIMS
SIMS
PHI
Tanner McKee
29%
17.4 expected points
VS
WAS
Jayden Daniels
70%
23.0 expected points
WinnerWAS strong · 70%
Totalno lean at 40.5 · sim 40.4
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 40–44 · 15% of sims
2035line · 40.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadWAS -6.0 covers 45% · PHI +6.0 covers 51% · push 4% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 15% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
PHIWAS
Pass offense944
Rush offense2819
Pass defense2250
Rush defense922
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
CLE @ PIT
1:00 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely CLE 17 – PIT 20
FAVOURITE WON final CLE 6 – PIT 27
40K
SIMS
SIMS
CLE
Deshaun Watson
38%
17.7 expected points
VS
PIT
Aaron Rodgers
62%
20.8 expected points
WinnerPIT lean · 62%
Totalno lean at 38.5 · sim 38.5
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 35–39 · 15% of sims
2035line · 38.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadPIT -3.5 covers 46% · CLE +3.5 covers 54% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 16% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
CLEPIT
Pass offense3847
Rush offense41100
Pass defense7538
Rush defense7584
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
BAL @ BUF
1:00 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely BAL 24 – BUF 27
FAVOURITE WON final BAL 10 – BUF 36
40K
SIMS
SIMS
BAL
Lamar Jackson
40%
25.8 expected points
VS
BUF
Josh Allen
60%
28.6 expected points
WinnerBUF lean · 60%
Totalno lean at 54.5 · sim 54.5
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 50–54 · 15% of sims
2035line · 54.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadBUF -3.0 covers 45% · BAL +3.0 covers 47% · push 8% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 15% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
BALBUF
Pass offense7584
Rush offense3188
Pass defense316
Rush defense6244
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
MIN @ DET
1:00 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · dome
most likely MIN 17 – DET 20
FAVOURITE WON final MIN 15 – DET 19
40K
SIMS
SIMS
MIN
Kyler Murray
40%
21.8 expected points
VS
DET
Jared Goff
60%
24.6 expected points
WinnerDET lean · 60%
Totalno lean at 46.5 · sim 46.4
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 45–49 · 15% of sims
2035line · 46.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadDET -3.0 covers 45% · MIN +3.0 covers 46% · push 8% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 15% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
MINDET
Pass offense16100
Rush offense950
Pass defense9712
Rush defense6688
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
ATL @ TB
1:00 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely ATL 20 – TB 17
Bet ATL +8.5 6-point teaser · posted +2.5, crosses 3 and 7
FAVOURITE WON final ATL 0 – TB 16
40K
SIMS
SIMS
ATL
Michael Penix Jr.
41%
20.0 expected points
VS
TB
Baker Mayfield
59%
22.4 expected points
WinnerTB lean · 59%
Totalno lean at 42.5 · sim 42.4
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 40–44 · 15% of sims
2035line · 42.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadTB -2.5 covers 52% · ATL +2.5 covers 48% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 16% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
ATLTB
Pass offense8119
Rush offense9472
Pass defense6694
Rush defense2572
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
LV @ NYJ
1:00 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely LV 20 – NYJ 23
Bet LV +7.5 6-point teaser · posted +1.5, crosses 3 and 7
UPSET final LV 38 – NYJ 33
40K
SIMS
SIMS
LV
Kirk Cousins
44%
22.5 expected points
VS
NYJ
Geno Smith
55%
23.9 expected points
Winnertoss-up · 55% — no play
Totalno lean at 46.5 · sim 46.5
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 45–49 · 15% of sims
2035line · 46.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadNYJ -1.5 covers 52% · LV +1.5 covers 48% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 16% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
LVNYJ
Pass offense6950
Rush offense647
Pass defense1619
Rush defense059
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
KC @ DEN
4:25 PM ET · Sun Nov 1 · outdoors
most likely KC 20 – DEN 17
Bet KC +7.5 6-point teaser · posted +1.5, crosses 3 and 7
UPSET final KC 24 – DEN 28
40K
SIMS
SIMS
KC
Patrick Mahomes
55%
21.4 expected points
VS
DEN
Bo Nix
44%
20.0 expected points
Winnertoss-up · 55% — no play
Totalno lean at 41.5 · sim 41.5
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 40–44 · 15% of sims
2035line · 41.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadKC -1.5 covers 52% · DEN +1.5 covers 48% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 16% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
KCDEN
Pass offense5334
Rush offense8462
Pass defense5381
Rush defense9778
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
Mon Nov 2 · 1 game
CHI @ SEA
8:15 PM ET · Mon Nov 2 · outdoors
most likely CHI 17 – SEA 20
40K
SIMS
SIMS
CHI
Caleb Williams
38%
21.6 expected points
VS
SEA
Sam Darnold
62%
24.9 expected points
WinnerSEA lean · 62%
Totalno lean at 46.5 · sim 46.5
TOTAL POINTS DISTRIBUTION
peak 45–49 · 15% of sims
2035line · 46.56070+
How the game shapes
SpreadSEA -3.5 covers 47% · CHI +3.5 covers 53% — a coin flip either way; we do not pick sides
Key numbersmargin lands on exactly 3: 15% · on exactly 7: 9% — why the teaser rule exists
CHISEA
Pass offense5931
Rush offense533
Pass defense7288
Rush defense4756
League percentile, last 5 weeks of efficiency per play. Context only — already in the price; unit mismatches did not predict upsets on 2023-25.
6-point teaser legs
Found by rule: underdogs +1.5 to +2.5, teased 6 points. The highlighted number is the line to take.
3 legs
Why these. A teaser is priced the same whatever numbers it crosses, so moving a small underdog through both 3 and 7 is worth more than the price reflects. On 2016–2025 these legs covered 77.4% (n=421), and held up on unseen seasons. Check the price first: a two-leg teaser is only worth it better than -150, and some books now post −130 or worse, which erases it.
Sun Nov 1 · 3 legs
Bet ATL +8.5 (posted +2.5, teased 6) vs TB
crosses 3 and 7
77%
historical
Bet LV +7.5 (posted +1.5, teased 6) vs NYJ
crosses 3 and 7
77%
historical
Bet KC +7.5 (posted +1.5, teased 6) vs DEN
crosses 3 and 7
77%
historical
Thu Oct 29
CAR @ GB · first kickoff 8:15 PM ET · 8 plays · 5 held
Thu Oct 29 — results
How this day's plays did, graded under today's rules.
4–4
Record
4–4
Hit rate
50%
Units
+0.20u
ROI
+2.5%
Held plays
11–16 · -5.23u
Held plays by reason
model/book gap 25pp+3–1 · +1.78u
negative-EV backtest3–2 · +1.28u
passing yards, no record1–1 · +0.85u
yardage overs run cold1–2 · -1.11u
no consistent record3–10 · -8.02u
Graded at the line and price shown on each row, flat one unit per play, under the rules in force today (allowlist last reviewed 2026-10-19). Voided plays (player did not take a snap) are excluded, not counted as losses. Held plays are graded too, so each hold can be judged on its own record.
Plays by prop
Only groups with a profitable record are shown (trimmed 2026-10-06 on four graded weeks): core = rushing-yards unders and receptions overs where we differ from the book by 15–25 points, and anytime TDs 3–6 points above the blended price; big gap = receptions unders 25+ points apart; rookie path = rookie rushing-yards unders. Each group's record is in the Results tab. Everything else that cleared the filters is held — graded, reason on the row, shown under Held plays — until it earns a record. Hold groups with a losing record are not listed at all; their record stays in the Results tab.
13 plays
Best value · every prop, by game, biggest edge first
CAR @ GB8:15 PM ET8 plays · 8 core · 5 held
1
Savion Williams GB — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 5 · +0.89u night · tracking edge +40pp · 2 books
90%
hit · ours
−113
DraftKings
2
Tucker Kraft GB — Under 46.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 · -1.00u night · tracking edge +31pp · 1 book
81%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
3
Brycen Tremayne CAR — Under 5.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 11 · -1.00u night · tracking edge +29pp · 2 books VOID RISK 57% to play
80%
hit · ours
−110
BetMGM
4
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 38 · -1.00u night · tracking edge +20pp · 5 books
70%
hit · ours
−112
DraftKings
5
Josh Jacobs GB — Under 48.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 39 · +1.55u rush under edge +15pp · 1 book
51%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
6
Darren Waller CAR — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 11 · +0.89u night · tracking edge +14pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
65%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
7
MarShawn Lloyd GB — Anytime TD
LOST · actual 0 · -1.00u core edge +5pp · 7 books VOID RISK 65% to play
26%
hit · ours
+400
DraftKings
8
Trevor Etienne CAR — Under 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 1 · +0.88u rush under edge +4pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
55%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
5 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
9
John Metchie III CAR — Under 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 14 · +1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +15pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
61%
hit · ours
+100
BetMGM
10
Josh Jacobs GB — Under 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 13 · +0.93u held — negative-EV backtest edge +13pp · 5 books
62%
hit · ours
−108
DraftKings
11
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — Under 63.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 · +1.35u held — negative-EV backtest edge +9pp · 1 book
49%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
12
Matthew Golden GB — Under 48.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 79 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 1 book
46%
hit · ours
+140
Bovada
13
Mitchell Evans CAR — Under 6.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 22 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +5pp · 2 books
53%
hit · ours
+100
FanDuel
Anytime TD · 1 core
CAR @ GB8:15 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 5 projections
1
MarShawn Lloyd GB — Anytime TD
LOST · actual 0 · -1.00u core edge +5pp · 7 books VOID RISK 65% to play
26%
hit · ours
+400
DraftKings
Most likely to score · 4 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
2
Josh Jacobs GB — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 5pp higher · 7 books
53%
score · ours
−137
BetRivers
3
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 8pp higher · 7 books
45%
score · ours
−115
DraftKings
4
Christian Watson GB — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 7 books
42%
score · ours
+145
FanDuel
5
Jalen Coker CAR — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 7 books
33%
score · ours
+215
BetRivers
6
Matthew Golden GB — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 5pp higher · 7 books
32%
score · ours
+170
BetRivers
Passing Yds
No passing yds play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
CAR @ GB8:15 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Bryce Young CAR — Under 254.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 209 projection we are 20pp higher · 2 books
70%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
2
Jordan Love GB — Under 262.5 Passing Yds
MISS · actual 288 projection we are 5pp higher · 2 books
55%
lean · ours
−115
BetMGM
Passing TDs
No passing tds play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
CAR @ GB8:15 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Jordan Love GB — Over 1.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 3 projection book agrees · 5 books
59%
lean · ours
−143
BetRivers
Receptions
No receptions play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
CAR @ GB8:15 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Savion Williams GB — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 42pp higher · 5 books
92%
lean · ours
−105
BetMGM
2
Tucker Kraft GB — Under 4.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 6 projection we are 32pp higher · 5 books
86%
lean · ours
−120
BetMGM
3
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Under 2.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 23pp higher · 6 books
72%
lean · ours
−105
Fanatics
4
Darren Waller CAR — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 8pp higher · 5 books
68%
lean · ours
−170
Bovada
5
Tommy Tremble CAR — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 7pp higher · 5 books
67%
lean · ours
−178
DraftKings
Rushing Yds · 2 core
CAR @ GB8:15 PM ET2 plays · 2 core · 4 projections
1
Josh Jacobs GB — Under 48.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 39 · +1.55u rush under edge +15pp · 1 book
51%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
2
Trevor Etienne CAR — Under 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 1 · +0.88u rush under edge +4pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
55%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
Where our projection leans · 2 of 4 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
3
Jordan Love GB — Under 4.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 40pp higher · 4 books
89%
lean · ours
−106
DraftKings
4
MarShawn Lloyd GB — Over 17.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 30pp higher · 3 books
80%
lean · ours
−109
DraftKings
5
Bryce Young CAR — Under 9.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 26pp higher · 4 books
77%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
6
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Under 67.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 81 projection we are 19pp higher · 4 books
70%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
Receiving Yds · 5 core · 5 held
CAR @ GB8:15 PM ET5 plays · 5 core · 2 projections · 5 held
1
Savion Williams GB — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 5 · +0.89u night · tracking edge +40pp · 2 books
90%
hit · ours
−113
DraftKings
2
Tucker Kraft GB — Under 46.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 · -1.00u night · tracking edge +31pp · 1 book
81%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
3
Brycen Tremayne CAR — Under 5.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 11 · -1.00u night · tracking edge +29pp · 2 books VOID RISK 57% to play
80%
hit · ours
−110
BetMGM
4
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 38 · -1.00u night · tracking edge +20pp · 5 books
70%
hit · ours
−112
DraftKings
5
Darren Waller CAR — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 11 · +0.89u night · tracking edge +14pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
65%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
6
Jonnu Smith GB — Over 2.5 Receiving Yds
no snap projection we are 8pp higher · 1 book
58%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
7
MarShawn Lloyd GB — Over 4.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 9 projection we are 5pp higher · 2 books
56%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
5 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
8
John Metchie III CAR — Under 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 14 · +1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +15pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
61%
hit · ours
+100
BetMGM
9
Josh Jacobs GB — Under 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 13 · +0.93u held — negative-EV backtest edge +13pp · 5 books
62%
hit · ours
−108
DraftKings
10
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — Under 63.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 · +1.35u held — negative-EV backtest edge +9pp · 1 book
49%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
11
Matthew Golden GB — Under 48.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 79 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 1 book
46%
hit · ours
+140
Bovada
12
Mitchell Evans CAR — Under 6.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 22 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +5pp · 2 books
53%
hit · ours
+100
FanDuel
Tackles
No tackles play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
CAR @ GB8:15 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Nick Scott CAR — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 5 projection we are 46pp higher · 2 books
90%
lean · ours
+116
DraftKings
2
Isaiah McDuffie GB — Under 7.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 10 projection we are 35pp higher · 2 books
83%
lean · ours
−106
DraftKings
3
Javon Bullard GB — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 23pp higher · 1 book
79%
lean · ours
−148
DraftKings
4
Evan Williams GB — Under 6.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 10 projection we are 19pp higher · 2 books
68%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
5
Tre'von Moehrig CAR — Under 4.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 5 projection we are 19pp higher · 1 book
63%
lean · ours
+113
DraftKings
Sun Nov 1
BAL @ BUF · TEN @ CIN · ARI @ DAL · MIN @ DET · IND @ JAX · LV @ NYJ · CLE @ PIT · ATL @ TB · LAC @ LA · KC @ DEN · NE @ MIA · PHI @ WAS · first kickoff 1:00 PM ET · 16 plays · 106 held
Sun Nov 1 — results
How this day's plays did, graded under today's rules.
8–8
Record
8–8
Hit rate
50%
Units
+3.58u
ROI
+22.4%
Held plays
197–234 · -32.53u
Held plays by reason
passing yards, no record13–9 · +6.67u
no consistent record58–51 · +2.90u
rookie prior3–1 · +1.63u
negative-EV backtest48–58 · -3.69u
model/book gap 25pp+18–29 · -10.58u
yardage overs run cold27–39 · -11.39u
tackles (held since week 1)30–47 · -18.07u
Graded at the line and price shown on each row, flat one unit per play, under the rules in force today (allowlist last reviewed 2026-10-19). Voided plays (player did not take a snap) are excluded, not counted as losses. Held plays are graded too, so each hold can be judged on its own record.
Plays by prop
Only groups with a profitable record are shown (trimmed 2026-10-06 on four graded weeks): core = rushing-yards unders and receptions overs where we differ from the book by 15–25 points, and anytime TDs 3–6 points above the blended price; big gap = receptions unders 25+ points apart; rookie path = rookie rushing-yards unders. Each group's record is in the Results tab. Everything else that cleared the filters is held — graded, reason on the row, shown under Held plays — until it earns a record. Hold groups with a losing record are not listed at all; their record stays in the Results tab.
122 plays
Best value · every prop, by game, biggest edge first
ARI @ DAL1:00 PM ET2 plays · 2 core · 8 held
1
Jacoby Brissett ARI — Under 10.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 7 · +0.89u rush under edge +18pp · 1 book
68%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
2
Jeremiyah Love ARI — Under 37.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 23 · +1.70u rush under edge +15pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
50%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
8 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
3
Elijah Higgins ARI — Under 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 10 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +44pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
95%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
4
Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +38pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
73%
hit · ours
+160
BetRivers
5
George Pickens DAL — Under 55.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 48 · +1.35u held — negative-EV backtest edge +21pp · 1 book
61%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
6
CeeDee Lamb DAL — Under 64.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 · +2.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +19pp · 1 book
50%
hit · ours
+200
Bovada
7
Michael Wilson ARI — Under 50.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 111 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book
56%
hit · ours
+140
Bovada
8
Kendrick Bourne ARI — Under 28.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 29 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +14pp · 1 book
50%
hit · ours
+160
Bovada
9
Ryan Flournoy DAL — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 38 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +9pp · 1 book
45%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
10
Trey McBride ARI — Under 64.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 72 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book
46%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
ATL @ TB1:00 PM ET9 held
9 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
1
Drake London ATL — Under 58.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 8 · +2.05u held — negative-EV backtest edge +47pp · 1 book
78%
hit · ours
+205
Bovada
2
Kyle Pitts ATL — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 6 · +1.70u held — negative-EV backtest edge +41pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
76%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
3
Chris Godwin TB — Under 30.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.60u held — negative-EV backtest edge +30pp · 1 book
66%
hit · ours
+160
Bovada
4
Tez Johnson TB — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.75u held — negative-EV backtest edge +26pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
60%
hit · ours
+175
Bovada
5
Zachariah Branch ATL — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +9pp · 5 books VOID RISK 65% to play
59%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
6
Bijan Robinson ATL — Under 32.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +8pp · 1 book
58%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
7
Kenny Gainwell TB — Under 11.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.91u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 5 books VOID RISK 72% to play
57%
hit · ours
−110
BetMGM
8
Cade Otton TB — Under 35.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.87u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book
56%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
9
Jahan Dotson ATL — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 95 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +5pp · 2 books
56%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
BAL @ BUF1:00 PM ET4 plays · 4 core · 6 held
1
James Cook BUF — Under 64.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 80 · -1.00u rush under edge +19pp · 1 book
47%
hit · ours
+235
Bovada
2
Lamar Jackson BAL — Under 15.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 0 · +2.30u rush under edge +15pp · 1 book
43%
hit · ours
+230
Bovada
3
Ray Davis BUF — Under 4.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 30 · -1.00u rush under edge +14pp · 4 books VOID RISK 57% to play
63%
hit · ours
−104
DraftKings
4
Derrick Henry BAL — Under 60.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 53 · +2.40u rush under edge +10pp · 1 book
38%
hit · ours
+240
Bovada
6 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
5
DJ Moore BUF — Under 43.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 82 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +43pp · 1 book VOID RISK 72% to play
82%
hit · ours
+145
Bovada
6
Josh Cuevas BAL — Under 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 15 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +39pp · 4 books VOID RISK 50% to play
89%
hit · ours
−110
BetMGM
7
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 13 · +1.75u held — negative-EV backtest edge +25pp · 1 book
59%
hit · ours
+175
Bovada
8
Zay Flowers BAL — Under 69.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.90u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 1 book
54%
hit · ours
+190
Bovada
9
Justice Hill BAL — Under 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 2 books VOID RISK 73% to play
68%
hit · ours
−117
DraftKings
10
Ty Johnson BUF — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 19 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
67%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
CLE @ PIT1:00 PM ET2 plays · 2 core · 9 held
1
Quinshon Judkins CLE — Under 38.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 25 · +1.65u rush under edge +8pp · 1 book
44%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
2
Rico Dowdle PIT — Under 21.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 56 · -1.00u rush under edge +6pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
37%
hit · ours
+205
Bovada
9 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
3
Darnell Washington PIT — Under 22.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 94 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +28pp · 2 books
78%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
4
Germie Bernard PIT — Under 33.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 · +1.50u held — negative-EV backtest edge +18pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
5
Jerry Jeudy CLE — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.92u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 5 books
67%
hit · ours
−109
DraftKings
6
Rico Dowdle PIT — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.93u held — negative-EV backtest edge +16pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
65%
hit · ours
−108
DraftKings
7
Jaylen Warren PIT — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +14pp · 1 book
61%
hit · ours
+100
BetMGM
8
Dylan Sampson CLE — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 62 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 5 books VOID RISK 65% to play
62%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
9
KC Concepcion CLE — Under 37.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 37 · +1.50u held — negative-EV backtest edge +11pp · 1 book
49%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
10
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE — Under 35.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 154 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book
56%
hit · ours
−114
BetRivers
11
DK Metcalf PIT — Under 55.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 4 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +5pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
IND @ JAX1:00 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 10 held
1
Bhayshul Tuten JAX — Under 46.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 104 · -1.00u rush under edge +14pp · 1 book
39%
hit · ours
+275
Bovada
10 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Brenton Strange JAX — Under 30.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 55 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +42pp · 1 book
77%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
3
Jakobi Meyers JAX — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 24 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +41pp · 1 book VOID RISK 55% to play
76%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
4
Travis Hunter JAX — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +37pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
86%
hit · ours
−113
BetRivers
5
Nate Boerkircher JAX — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +28pp · 5 books VOID RISK 73% to play
79%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
6
Josh Cameron JAX — Under 13.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +26pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
76%
hit · ours
−113
BetRivers
7
Bhayshul Tuten JAX — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 55 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 1 book
74%
hit · ours
−120
BetMGM
8
Laquon Treadwell IND — Under 25.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 18 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +18pp · 1 book
68%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
9
Ashton Dulin IND — Under 4.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.80u held — negative-EV backtest edge +15pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
68%
hit · ours
−125
FanDuel
10
Tyler Warren IND — Under 41.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 18 · +0.88u held — negative-EV backtest edge +8pp · 2 books
58%
hit · ours
−114
BetOnline.ag
11
Keenan Allen IND — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 67 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book
40%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
LV @ NYJ1:00 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 8 held
1
Isaiah Davis NYJ — Under 10.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 15 · -1.00u rush under edge +11pp · 2 books VOID RISK 57% to play
62%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
8 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Mason Taylor NYJ — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 19 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +37pp · 1 book
87%
hit · ours
−113
BetRivers
3
Braelon Allen NYJ — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 6 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +33pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
84%
hit · ours
−112
BetOnline.ag
4
Brock Bowers LV — Under 60.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 92 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +33pp · 1 book
73%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
5
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ — Under 31.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.55u held — negative-EV backtest edge +19pp · 1 book
56%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
6
Garrett Wilson NYJ — Under 53.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 83 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +16pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
+140
Bovada
7
Ashton Jeanty LV — Under 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 64 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 2 books
58%
hit · ours
−116
DraftKings
8
Kenyon Sadiq NYJ — Under 18.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 22 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
56%
hit · ours
−114
BetRivers
9
Tre Tucker LV — Under 38.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.55u held — negative-EV backtest edge +5pp · 1 book
42%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
MIN @ DET1:00 PM ET2 plays · 2 core · 7 held
1
Aaron Jones MIN — Anytime TD
LOST · actual 0 · -1.00u core edge +4pp · 8 books
34%
hit · ours
+250
FanDuel
2
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Under 68.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 153 · -1.00u rush under edge +3pp · 1 book
31%
hit · ours
+230
Bovada
7 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
3
Aaron Jones MIN — Under 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 18 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +30pp · 6 books
80%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
4
Jameson Williams DET — Under 41.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 70 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +25pp · 1 book
64%
hit · ours
+145
Bovada
5
T.J. Hockenson MIN — Under 32.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 58 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +15pp · 1 book
51%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
6
Jordan Addison MIN — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 66 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +9pp · 1 book
45%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
7
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Under 30.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 15 · +0.88u held — negative-EV backtest edge +8pp · 4 books
59%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
8
Sam LaPorta DET — Under 45.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 33 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 3 books
57%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
9
Isaac TeSlaa DET — Under 20.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.85u held — negative-EV backtest edge +4pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
−117
BetRivers
TEN @ CIN1:00 PM ET12 held
12 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
1
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN — Under 36.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 57 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +37pp · 1 book
75%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
2
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Under 63.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 141 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +35pp · 1 book
66%
hit · ours
+200
Bovada
3
Mike Gesicki CIN — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 76 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
73%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
4
Tony Pollard TEN — Under 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 3 books
71%
hit · ours
+100
BetMGM
5
Dohnte Meyers CIN — Under 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 34 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 4 books VOID RISK 57% to play
72%
hit · ours
−107
DraftKings
6
Calvin Ridley TEN — Under 22.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 10 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 2 books
72%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
7
Drew Sample CIN — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.95u held — negative-EV backtest edge +18pp · 4 books
67%
hit · ours
−105
DraftKings
8
Daniel Bellinger TEN — Under 10.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 36 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +16pp · 2 books VOID RISK 73% to play
66%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
9
Tee Higgins CIN — Under 63.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 155 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +13pp · 1 book
53%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
10
Elic Ayomanor TEN — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 34 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 1 book
46%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
11
Chase Brown CIN — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 46 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 4 books
57%
hit · ours
−112
DraftKings
12
Samaje Perine CIN — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 9 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
58%
hit · ours
−120
DraftKings
LAC @ LA4:05 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 12 held
1
Omarion Hampton LAC — Anytime TD
LOST · actual 0 · -1.00u core edge +5pp · 8 books
39%
hit · ours
+210
DraftKings
12 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Tyler Higbee LA — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 14 · +1.70u held — negative-EV backtest edge +56pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
91%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
3
Kimani Vidal LAC — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 7 · +0.90u held — negative-EV backtest edge +33pp · 3 books VOID RISK 50% to play
84%
hit · ours
−111
DraftKings
4
Kyren Williams LA — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 3 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +30pp · 6 books
80%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
5
Ladd McConkey LAC — Under 38.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 86 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +20pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
58%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
6
Blake Corum LA — Under 7.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.88u held — negative-EV backtest edge +20pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
70%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
7
Keaton Mitchell LAC — Under 7.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 17 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +20pp · 2 books VOID RISK 65% to play
69%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
8
Charlie Kolar LAC — Under 18.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book
67%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
9
Konata Mumpfield LA — Under 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 4 books
67%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
10
Oronde Gadsden II LAC — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 52 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 4 books VOID RISK 73% to play
62%
hit · ours
−112
DraftKings
11
Tre Harris LAC — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +11pp · 1 book
45%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
12
Omarion Hampton LAC — Under 6.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 7 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +4pp · 3 books
54%
hit · ours
−113
DraftKings
13
Puka Nacua LA — Under 72.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 80 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +4pp · 1 book
36%
hit · ours
+190
Bovada
KC @ DEN4:25 PM ET2 plays · 2 core · 8 held
1
Patrick Mahomes KC — Under 13.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 6 · +0.93u rush under edge +18pp · 5 books
67%
hit · ours
−108
DraftKings
2
Bo Nix DEN — Under 16.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 4 · +0.85u rush under edge +5pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
−118
BetRivers
8 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
3
Noah Gray KC — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 15 · +0.88u held — negative-EV backtest edge +32pp · 3 books
82%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
4
Jonah Coleman DEN — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 63 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +32pp · 5 books VOID RISK 65% to play
82%
hit · ours
−114
BetRivers
5
Rashee Rice KC — Under 39.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +31pp · 1 book
68%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
6
Evan Engram DEN — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 4 books
73%
hit · ours
−112
BetOnline.ag
7
Courtland Sutton DEN — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +18pp · 1 book
54%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
8
Cyrus Allen KC — Under 4.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +16pp · 1 book VOID RISK 50% to play
69%
hit · ours
−130
FanDuel
9
Troy Franklin DEN — Under 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 3 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +15pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
65%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
10
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 10 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
58%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
NE @ MIA4:25 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 10 held
1
Jaylen Wright MIA — Under 14.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 5 · +0.87u rush under edge +20pp · 4 books VOID RISK 50% to play
70%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
10 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Efton Chism III NE — Under 25.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 37 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +45pp · 3 books
95%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
3
Eli Raridon NE — Under 28.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 5 · +0.90u held — negative-EV backtest edge +40pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
89%
hit · ours
−111
BetMGM
4
Ollie Gordon II MIA — Under 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.93u held — negative-EV backtest edge +36pp · 2 books VOID RISK 57% to play
85%
hit · ours
−107
DraftKings
5
Kyle Williams NE — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 43 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +32pp · 1 book VOID RISK 57% to play
79%
hit · ours
−104
BetRivers
6
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — Under 25.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 8 · +0.93u held — negative-EV backtest edge +24pp · 2 books
73%
hit · ours
−108
DraftKings
7
DeMario Douglas NE — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 76 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 1 book
59%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
8
Chris Bell MIA — Under 18.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
73%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
9
Greg Dulcich MIA — Under 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 43 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 1 book
72%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
10
Hunter Henry NE — Under 34.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 · +1.50u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
11
Caleb Douglas MIA — Under 37.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 43 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 2 books
57%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
PHI @ WAS8:20 PM ET7 held
7 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
1
Makai Lemon PHI — Under 33.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 57 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +41pp · 1 book
78%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
2
Dallas Goedert PHI — Under 35.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 · +1.45u held — negative-EV backtest edge +30pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
68%
hit · ours
+145
Bovada
3
Darius Cooper PHI — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 19 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 3 books VOID RISK 65% to play
73%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
4
Antonio Williams WAS — Under 25.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 54 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
57%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
5
Chig Okonkwo WAS — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 32 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book
54%
hit · ours
+160
Bovada
6
Saquon Barkley PHI — Under 13.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 24 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +13pp · 2 books VOID RISK 73% to play
64%
hit · ours
−117
DraftKings
7
Treylon Burks WAS — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 81 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 4 books
62%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
Anytime TD · 2 core
ARI @ DAL1:00 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 1 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Javonte Williams DAL — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
65%
score · ours
−235
Caesars
2
CeeDee Lamb DAL — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
57%
score · ours
−135
FanDuel
3
Trey McBride ARI — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
49%
score · ours
−105
DraftKings
4
George Pickens DAL — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
44%
score · ours
+110
BetMGM
5
Jeremiyah Love ARI — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
39%
score · ours
+165
Fanatics
ATL @ TB1:00 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 1 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Bijan Robinson ATL — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 10pp higher · 8 books
58%
score · ours
−180
FanDuel
2
Bucky Irving TB — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 4pp higher · 8 books
49%
score · ours
+110
DraftKings
3
Drake London ATL — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 10pp higher · 8 books
32%
score · ours
+155
FanDuel
4
Chris Godwin TB — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
26%
score · ours
+240
BetMGM
5
Cade Otton TB — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
25%
score · ours
+320
FanDuel
BAL @ BUF1:00 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 4 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Derrick Henry BAL — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 8pp higher · 8 books
61%
score · ours
−205
Caesars
2
Josh Allen BUF — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
56%
score · ours
−150
BetMGM
3
James Cook BUF — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
55%
score · ours
−159
Caesars
4
Zay Flowers BAL — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 7pp higher · 8 books
37%
score · ours
+140
BetRivers
5
Dalton Kincaid BUF — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
33%
score · ours
+225
BetMGM
CLE @ PIT1:00 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 3 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Jaylen Warren PIT — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
41%
score · ours
+115
DraftKings
2
Quinshon Judkins CLE — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 9pp higher · 8 books
33%
score · ours
+140
DraftKings
3
DK Metcalf PIT — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
31%
score · ours
+205
BetRivers
4
Rico Dowdle PIT — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
27%
score · ours
+300
DraftKings
5
Pat Freiermuth PIT — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
25%
score · ours
+380
Fanatics
IND @ JAX1:00 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 2 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Bhayshul Tuten JAX — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
53%
score · ours
−105
DraftKings
2
Parker Washington JAX — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
50%
score · ours
+110
FanDuel
3
Jonathan Taylor IND — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
47%
score · ours
+120
DraftKings
4
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
31%
score · ours
+230
DraftKings
5
Brenton Strange JAX — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
29%
score · ours
+215
DraftKings
LV @ NYJ1:00 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 2 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Ashton Jeanty LV — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 4pp higher · 7 books
50%
score · ours
+100
DraftKings
2
Braelon Allen NYJ — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 18pp higher · 7 books
43%
score · ours
−120
Fanatics
3
Brock Bowers LV — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 9pp higher · 7 books
41%
score · ours
+115
DraftKings
4
Garrett Wilson NYJ — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 7pp higher · 7 books
32%
score · ours
+180
Fanatics
5
Tre Tucker LV — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 5pp higher · 7 books
26%
score · ours
+250
Fanatics
MIN @ DET1:00 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 5 projections
1
Aaron Jones MIN — Anytime TD
LOST · actual 0 · -1.00u core edge +4pp · 8 books
34%
hit · ours
+250
FanDuel
Most likely to score · 2 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
2
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 10pp higher · 8 books
63%
score · ours
−235
BetMGM
3
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
47%
score · ours
+120
Caesars
4
Jordan Mason MIN — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
32%
score · ours
+185
Fanatics
5
Sam LaPorta DET — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
30%
score · ours
+240
BetMGM
6
Jameson Williams DET — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 7pp higher · 8 books
26%
score · ours
+230
BetMGM
TEN @ CIN1:00 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 3 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Chase Brown CIN — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
63%
score · ours
−143
BetRivers
2
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
52%
score · ours
−117
Caesars
3
Tee Higgins CIN — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 7pp higher · 8 books
47%
score · ours
+100
FanDuel
4
Tony Pollard TEN — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 7pp higher · 8 books
37%
score · ours
+155
BetMGM
5
Samaje Perine CIN — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 4pp higher · 8 books
30%
score · ours
+210
DraftKings
LAC @ LA4:05 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 5 projections
1
Omarion Hampton LAC — Anytime TD
LOST · actual 0 · -1.00u core edge +5pp · 8 books
39%
hit · ours
+210
DraftKings
Most likely to score · 3 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
2
Kyren Williams LA — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 5pp higher · 8 books
55%
score · ours
−125
FanDuel
3
Puka Nacua LA — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 4pp higher · 8 books
52%
score · ours
−118
BetRivers
4
Blake Corum LA — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
38%
score · ours
+175
BetRivers
5
Ladd McConkey LAC — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 4pp higher · 8 books
24%
score · ours
+280
FanDuel
6
Quentin Johnston LAC — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
22%
score · ours
+400
Fanatics
KC @ DEN4:25 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 2 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Kenneth Walker III KC — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 9pp higher · 8 books
51%
score · ours
−140
FanDuel
2
Jonah Coleman DEN — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 5pp higher · 8 books
33%
score · ours
+180
Fanatics
3
J.K. Dobbins DEN — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 3pp higher · 8 books
30%
score · ours
+220
BetMGM
4
Jaylen Waddle DEN — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
26%
score · ours
+285
DraftKings
5
Travis Kelce KC — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book agrees · 8 books
25%
score · ours
+270
Fanatics
NE @ MIA4:25 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 2 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 10pp higher · 8 books
53%
score · ours
−125
Caesars
2
Hunter Henry NE — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 6pp higher · 8 books
34%
score · ours
+175
DraftKings
3
Ollie Gordon II MIA — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 15pp higher · 8 books
28%
score · ours
+160
FanDuel
4
DeMario Douglas NE — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 4pp higher · 8 books
27%
score · ours
+260
FanDuel
5
Drake Maye NE — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
26%
score · ours
+330
Fanatics
PHI @ WAS8:20 PM ET5 projections
Most likely to score · 3 of 5 scored our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Rachaad White WAS — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 11pp higher · 8 books
37%
score · ours
+125
DraftKings
2
Saquon Barkley PHI — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book is 8pp higher · 8 books
35%
score · ours
+170
FanDuel
3
Stefon Diggs WAS — Anytime TD
SCORED projection book agrees · 8 books
35%
score · ours
+230
BetMGM
4
Dallas Goedert PHI — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 4pp higher · 8 books
27%
score · ours
+270
BetRivers
5
Jayden Daniels WAS — Anytime TD
NO TD projection book is 7pp higher · 8 books
26%
score · ours
+230
BetMGM
Passing Yds
No passing yds play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
ARI @ DAL1:00 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Dak Prescott DAL — Under 271.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 195 projection we are 9pp higher · 4 books
59%
lean · ours
−106
BetOnline.ag
ATL @ TB1:00 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Baker Mayfield TB — Under 215.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 17pp higher · 2 books
67%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
2
Michael Penix Jr. ATL — Under 228.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 125 projection we are 7pp higher · 2 books
57%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
BAL @ BUF1:00 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Lamar Jackson BAL — Over 239.5 Passing Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 12pp higher · 2 books
62%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
CLE @ PIT1:00 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Aaron Rodgers PIT — Under 216.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 172 projection we are 9pp higher · 2 books
59%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
IND @ JAX1:00 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Daniel Jones IND — Over 190.5 Passing Yds
MISS · actual 144 projection we are 23pp higher · 4 books
73%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
LV @ NYJ1:00 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Geno Smith NYJ — Under 225.5 Passing Yds
MISS · actual 290 projection we are 11pp higher · 3 books
61%
lean · ours
−111
BetOnline.ag
MIN @ DET1:00 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Kyler Murray MIN — Under 225.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 210 projection we are 18pp higher · 2 books
67%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
2
Jared Goff DET — Under 257.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 176 projection we are 10pp higher · 3 books
60%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
TEN @ CIN1:00 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Joe Burrow CIN — Under 272.5 Passing Yds
MISS · actual 462 projection we are 26pp higher · 5 books
76%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
LAC @ LA4:05 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Justin Herbert LAC — Over 205.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 257 projection we are 10pp higher · 2 books
60%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
KC @ DEN4:25 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 0 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Bo Nix DEN — Under 208.5 Passing Yds
MISS · actual 222 projection we are 12pp higher · 4 books
62%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
2
Patrick Mahomes KC — Under 223.5 Passing Yds
MISS · actual 321 projection we are 8pp higher · 3 books
58%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
NE @ MIA4:25 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Malik Willis MIA — Over 174.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 211 projection we are 24pp higher · 3 books
73%
lean · ours
−104
BetRivers
PHI @ WAS8:20 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Tanner McKee PHI — Over 204.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 212 projection we are 9pp higher · 2 books
59%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
2
Jayden Daniels WAS — Over 198.5 Passing Yds
HIT · actual 217 projection we are 5pp higher · 4 books
55%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
Passing TDs
No passing tds play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
ARI @ DAL1:00 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Dak Prescott DAL — Under 2.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 4pp higher · 6 books
60%
lean · ours
−135
BetOnline.ag
2
Jacoby Brissett ARI — Over 1.5 Passing TDs
MISS · actual 0 projection book agrees · 7 books
56%
lean · ours
−148
FanDuel
ATL @ TB1:00 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Michael Penix Jr. ATL — Under 1.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 0 projection book agrees · 7 books
62%
lean · ours
−179
DraftKings
2
Baker Mayfield TB — Under 1.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 0 projection book agrees · 6 books
59%
lean · ours
−148
FanDuel
CLE @ PIT1:00 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Deshaun Watson CLE — Over 0.5 Passing TDs
MISS · actual 0 projection book agrees · 5 books
66%
lean · ours
−227
BetOnline.ag
IND @ JAX1:00 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Trevor Lawrence JAX — Over 1.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 3 projection we are 3pp higher · 7 books
66%
lean · ours
−180
BetRivers
2
Daniel Jones IND — Over 0.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 1 projection book agrees · 6 books
61%
lean · ours
−182
FanDuel
MIN @ DET1:00 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Kyler Murray MIN — Under 1.5 Passing TDs
MISS · actual 2 projection book agrees · 6 books
56%
lean · ours
−142
DraftKings
TEN @ CIN1:00 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Cam Ward TEN — Over 0.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 2 projection book agrees · 7 books
62%
lean · ours
−184
DraftKings
2
Joe Burrow CIN — Under 2.5 Passing TDs
MISS · actual 5 projection book agrees · 6 books
57%
lean · ours
−156
BetOnline.ag
LAC @ LA4:05 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Justin Herbert LAC — Under 1.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 0 projection book agrees · 6 books
64%
lean · ours
−196
FanDuel
2
Matthew Stafford LA — Over 1.5 Passing TDs
MISS · actual 1 projection book agrees · 7 books
58%
lean · ours
−165
BetRivers
KC @ DEN4:25 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 0 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Bo Nix DEN — Under 1.5 Passing TDs
MISS · actual 2 projection book agrees · 7 books
67%
lean · ours
−220
FanDuel
2
Patrick Mahomes KC — Under 1.5 Passing TDs
MISS · actual 3 projection book agrees · 6 books
62%
lean · ours
−185
BetOnline.ag
NE @ MIA4:25 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Malik Willis MIA — Over 0.5 Passing TDs
HIT · actual 2 projection book agrees · 6 books
62%
lean · ours
−164
FanDuel
PHI @ WAS8:20 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Tanner McKee PHI — Over 0.5 Passing TDs
MISS · actual 0 projection book agrees · 6 books
66%
lean · ours
−200
BetMGM
Receptions
No receptions play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
ARI @ DAL1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Elijah Higgins ARI — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 35pp higher · 4 books
95%
lean · ours
−175
DraftKings
2
Reggie Virgil ARI — Over 0.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 17pp higher · 3 books
78%
lean · ours
−170
Bovada
3
Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL — Under 1.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 4 projection we are 31pp higher · 5 books
75%
lean · ours
+121
DraftKings
4
CeeDee Lamb DAL — Under 6.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 21pp higher · 7 books
70%
lean · ours
−108
DraftKings
5
Javonte Williams DAL — Over 1.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 1 projection we are 9pp higher · 5 books
70%
lean · ours
−175
BetRivers
ATL @ TB1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 5 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Drake London ATL — Under 6.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 39pp higher · 6 books
94%
lean · ours
−135
DraftKings
2
Chris Godwin TB — Under 4.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 38pp higher · 7 books
89%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
3
Kyle Pitts ATL — Under 3.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 39pp higher · 6 books
88%
lean · ours
−106
DraftKings
4
Austin Hooper ATL — Over 0.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 18pp higher · 5 books
79%
lean · ours
−165
BetMGM
5
Tez Johnson TB — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 18pp higher · 4 books
74%
lean · ours
−137
DraftKings
BAL @ BUF1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
DJ Moore BUF — Under 4.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 35pp higher · 5 books
93%
lean · ours
−149
BetOnline.ag
2
Josh Cuevas BAL — Under 1.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 25pp higher · 5 books
86%
lean · ours
−185
BetMGM
3
Ty Johnson BUF — Under 2.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 3 projection we are 14pp higher · 4 books
75%
lean · ours
−182
BetOnline.ag
4
Rashod Bateman BAL — Over 2.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 1 projection we are 29pp higher · 6 books
71%
lean · ours
+130
FanDuel
5
Zay Flowers BAL — Under 6.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 14pp higher · 6 books
69%
lean · ours
−125
BetMGM
CLE @ PIT1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Germie Bernard PIT — Under 4.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 5 projection we are 31pp higher · 6 books
81%
lean · ours
−102
DraftKings
2
Darnell Washington PIT — Under 2.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 3 projection we are 23pp higher · 7 books
78%
lean · ours
−130
DraftKings
3
Jerry Jeudy CLE — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 18pp higher · 6 books
78%
lean · ours
−164
DraftKings
4
Rico Dowdle PIT — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 19pp higher · 6 books
70%
lean · ours
−114
DraftKings
5
Quinshon Judkins CLE — Over 1.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 12pp higher · 5 books
69%
lean · ours
−144
DraftKings
IND @ JAX1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 4 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Jakobi Meyers JAX — Under 3.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 33pp higher · 4 books
93%
lean · ours
−165
DraftKings
2
Brian Thomas Jr JAX — Over 1.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 1 projection we are 50pp higher · 6 books
86%
lean · ours
+165
BetRivers
3
Travis Hunter JAX — Under 1.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 33pp higher · 5 books
84%
lean · ours
−114
BetOnline.ag
4
Brenton Strange JAX — Under 3.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 40pp higher · 6 books
83%
lean · ours
+124
FanDuel
5
Nate Boerkircher JAX — Under 1.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 15pp higher · 4 books
80%
lean · ours
−217
BetOnline.ag
LV @ NYJ1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Mason Taylor NYJ — Under 2.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 3 projection we are 39pp higher · 5 books
86%
lean · ours
+104
FanDuel
2
Braelon Allen NYJ — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 38pp higher · 4 books
86%
lean · ours
+100
BetOnline.ag
3
Adonai Mitchell NYJ — Over 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 7 projection we are 43pp higher · 5 books
82%
lean · ours
+154
FanDuel
4
Brock Bowers LV — Under 5.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 30pp higher · 5 books
73%
lean · ours
+120
Bovada
5
Garrett Wilson NYJ — Under 5.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 6 projection we are 18pp higher · 5 books
70%
lean · ours
−123
BetOnline.ag
MIN @ DET1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Aaron Jones MIN — Under 1.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 2 projection we are 36pp higher · 6 books
78%
lean · ours
+136
DraftKings
2
Jauan Jennings MIN — Over 1.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 26pp higher · 6 books
75%
lean · ours
+100
BetMGM
3
T.J. Hockenson MIN — Under 4.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 22pp higher · 6 books
72%
lean · ours
−103
DraftKings
4
Jordan Addison MIN — Under 3.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 3 projection we are 11pp higher · 6 books
67%
lean · ours
−138
DraftKings
5
Jameson Williams DET — Under 3.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 4 projection we are 13pp higher · 7 books
67%
lean · ours
−130
DraftKings
TEN @ CIN1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 0 of 4 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Carnell Tate TEN — Under 4.5 Receptions
no snap projection we are 50pp higher · 1 book
100%
lean · ours
−115
BetOnline.ag
2
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN — Under 5.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 6 projection we are 42pp higher · 6 books
96%
lean · ours
−118
FanDuel
3
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Under 6.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 11 projection we are 36pp higher · 3 books
82%
lean · ours
+104
FanDuel
4
Tony Pollard TEN — Under 2.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 3 projection we are 22pp higher · 6 books
80%
lean · ours
−150
BetMGM
5
Dohnte Meyers CIN — Under 1.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 3 projection we are 21pp higher · 6 books
75%
lean · ours
−125
Fanatics
LAC @ LA4:05 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 4 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Tyler Higbee LA — Under 3.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 45pp higher · 6 books
96%
lean · ours
−114
BetOnline.ag
2
Kyren Williams LA — Under 3.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 30pp higher · 6 books
83%
lean · ours
−130
FanDuel
3
Kimani Vidal LAC — Under 1.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 2 projection we are 29pp higher · 6 books
83%
lean · ours
−132
FanDuel
4
Charlie Kolar LAC — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 15pp higher · 6 books
73%
lean · ours
−152
FanDuel
5
Blake Corum LA — Under 1.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 10pp higher · 7 books
73%
lean · ours
−187
DraftKings
KC @ DEN4:25 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Jonah Coleman DEN — Under 3.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 4 projection we are 30pp higher · 5 books
88%
lean · ours
−152
DraftKings
2
Rashee Rice KC — Under 4.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 34pp higher · 6 books
85%
lean · ours
−110
Bovada
3
Noah Gray KC — Under 1.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 2 projection we are 23pp higher · 6 books
73%
lean · ours
−103
BetOnline.ag
4
Courtland Sutton DEN — Under 3.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 4 projection we are 17pp higher · 6 books
72%
lean · ours
−128
DraftKings
5
Evan Engram DEN — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 22pp higher · 6 books
72%
lean · ours
−105
BetMGM
NE @ MIA4:25 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Efton Chism III NE — Under 2.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 5 projection we are 48pp higher · 6 books
97%
lean · ours
−105
BetMGM
2
Eli Raridon NE — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 33pp higher · 6 books
85%
lean · ours
−120
BetMGM
3
Ollie Gordon II MIA — Under 1.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 0 projection we are 32pp higher · 6 books
83%
lean · ours
−110
Fanatics
4
Greg Dulcich MIA — Under 3.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 4 projection we are 21pp higher · 5 books
80%
lean · ours
−154
FanDuel
5
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — Under 3.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 3 projection we are 19pp higher · 6 books
75%
lean · ours
−141
DraftKings
PHI @ WAS8:20 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Makai Lemon PHI — Under 4.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 6 projection we are 45pp higher · 6 books
93%
lean · ours
+105
BetMGM
2
Dallas Goedert PHI — Under 4.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 41pp higher · 6 books
85%
lean · ours
+120
DraftKings
3
Antonio Williams WAS — Under 3.5 Receptions
MISS · actual 5 projection we are 19pp higher · 6 books
77%
lean · ours
−155
BetMGM
4
Darius Cooper PHI — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 24pp higher · 6 books
76%
lean · ours
−121
DraftKings
5
Saquon Barkley PHI — Under 2.5 Receptions
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 12pp higher · 5 books
72%
lean · ours
−158
FanDuel
Rushing Yds · 14 core
ARI @ DAL1:00 PM ET2 plays · 2 core · 5 projections
1
Jacoby Brissett ARI — Under 10.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 7 · +0.89u rush under edge +18pp · 1 book
68%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
2
Jeremiyah Love ARI — Under 37.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 23 · +1.70u rush under edge +15pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
50%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
Where our projection leans · 5 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
3
Tyler Goodson DAL — Under 20.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 14 projection we are 27pp higher · 4 books
78%
lean · ours
−110
DraftKings
4
Tyler Allgeier ARI — Over 13.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 147 projection we are 27pp higher · 4 books
78%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
5
Bam Knight ARI — Under 18.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 8 projection we are 25pp higher · 1 book
75%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
6
Javonte Williams DAL — Under 75.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 56 projection we are 22pp higher · 2 books
72%
lean · ours
−110
DraftKings
7
Dak Prescott DAL — Over 8.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 20 projection we are 22pp higher · 4 books
72%
lean · ours
−109
DraftKings
ATL @ TB1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Bijan Robinson ATL — Under 80.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 76 projection we are 25pp higher · 4 books
75%
lean · ours
−103
BetOnline.ag
2
Sean Tucker TB — Over 7.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 23pp higher · 2 books
72%
lean · ours
−108
DraftKings
3
Baker Mayfield TB — Over 15.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 14 projection we are 17pp higher · 3 books
68%
lean · ours
−115
DraftKings
4
Michael Penix Jr. ATL — Over 2.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 11 projection we are 10pp higher · 3 books
63%
lean · ours
−121
DraftKings
5
Khalil Herbert ATL — Over 8.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 12 projection we are 8pp higher · 4 books
59%
lean · ours
−114
DraftKings
BAL @ BUF1:00 PM ET4 plays · 4 core · 1 projection
1
James Cook BUF — Under 64.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 80 · -1.00u rush under edge +19pp · 1 book
47%
hit · ours
+235
Bovada
2
Lamar Jackson BAL — Under 15.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 0 · +2.30u rush under edge +15pp · 1 book
43%
hit · ours
+230
Bovada
3
Ray Davis BUF — Under 4.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 30 · -1.00u rush under edge +14pp · 4 books VOID RISK 57% to play
63%
hit · ours
−104
DraftKings
4
Derrick Henry BAL — Under 60.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 53 · +2.40u rush under edge +10pp · 1 book
38%
hit · ours
+240
Bovada
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
5
Ty Johnson BUF — Over 1.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 28pp higher · 2 books
78%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
CLE @ PIT1:00 PM ET2 plays · 2 core · 3 projections
1
Quinshon Judkins CLE — Under 38.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 25 · +1.65u rush under edge +8pp · 1 book
44%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
2
Rico Dowdle PIT — Under 21.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 56 · -1.00u rush under edge +6pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
37%
hit · ours
+205
Bovada
Where our projection leans · 0 of 3 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
3
Aaron Rodgers PIT — Over 0.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 30pp higher · 3 books
80%
lean · ours
−109
DraftKings
4
Jaylen Warren PIT — Under 66.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 143 projection we are 19pp higher · 2 books
69%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
5
Deshaun Watson CLE — Over 25.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 2 projection we are 11pp higher · 2 books
61%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
IND @ JAX1:00 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 5 projections
1
Bhayshul Tuten JAX — Under 46.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 104 · -1.00u rush under edge +14pp · 1 book
39%
hit · ours
+275
Bovada
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
2
Seth McGowan IND — Under 24.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 29 projection we are 38pp higher · 3 books
89%
lean · ours
−115
DraftKings
3
Jonathan Taylor IND — Over 48.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 23 projection we are 29pp higher · 3 books
79%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
4
Trevor Lawrence JAX — Under 11.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 10 projection we are 23pp higher · 3 books
73%
lean · ours
−112
BetOnline.ag
5
Daniel Jones IND — Under 8.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 7 projection we are 17pp higher · 3 books
66%
lean · ours
−109
DraftKings
6
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX — Under 31.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 41 projection we are 15pp higher · 4 books
66%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
LV @ NYJ1:00 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 5 projections
1
Isaiah Davis NYJ — Under 10.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 15 · -1.00u rush under edge +11pp · 2 books VOID RISK 57% to play
62%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
Where our projection leans · 1 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
2
Braelon Allen NYJ — Under 79.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 147 projection we are 46pp higher · 3 books
96%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
3
Kirk Cousins LV — Over 0.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 3 projection we are 42pp higher · 3 books
89%
lean · ours
+103
DraftKings
4
Mike Washington Jr. LV — Under 32.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 83 projection we are 32pp higher · 2 books
82%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
5
Geno Smith NYJ — Over 6.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 4 projection we are 22pp higher · 5 books
72%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
6
Ashton Jeanty LV — Over 50.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 9 projection we are 5pp higher · 3 books
55%
lean · ours
−114
DraftKings
MIN @ DET1:00 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 2 projections
1
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Under 68.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 153 · -1.00u rush under edge +3pp · 1 book
31%
hit · ours
+230
Bovada
Where our projection leans · 0 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
2
Aaron Jones MIN — Over 27.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 22 projection we are 40pp higher · 3 books
90%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
3
Jared Goff DET — Over 1.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 37pp higher · 2 books
86%
lean · ours
−105
DraftKings
TEN @ CIN1:00 PM ET4 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 4 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Samaje Perine CIN — Under 23.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 10 projection we are 23pp higher · 5 books
73%
lean · ours
−110
DraftKings
2
Tony Pollard TEN — Under 65.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 117 projection we are 21pp higher · 4 books
71%
lean · ours
−112
BetOnline.ag
3
Cam Ward TEN — Over 9.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 41 projection we are 17pp higher · 4 books
67%
lean · ours
−110
DraftKings
4
Chase Brown CIN — Over 59.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 55 projection we are 15pp higher · 3 books
66%
lean · ours
−114
DraftKings
LAC @ LA4:05 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Kimani Vidal LAC — Under 23.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 23 projection we are 50pp higher · 2 books
100%
lean · ours
−111
BetOnline.ag
2
Matthew Stafford LA — Over 0.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 48pp higher · 3 books
91%
lean · ours
+126
FanDuel
3
Omarion Hampton LAC — Over 34.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 20 projection we are 30pp higher · 3 books
80%
lean · ours
−110
DraftKings
4
Justin Herbert LAC — Under 24.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 15 projection we are 29pp higher · 4 books
79%
lean · ours
−112
BetRivers
5
Kyren Williams LA — Under 60.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 56 projection we are 14pp higher · 3 books
65%
lean · ours
−114
BetOnline.ag
KC @ DEN4:25 PM ET2 plays · 2 core · 3 projections
1
Patrick Mahomes KC — Under 13.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 6 · +0.93u rush under edge +18pp · 5 books
67%
hit · ours
−108
DraftKings
2
Bo Nix DEN — Under 16.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 4 · +0.85u rush under edge +5pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
−118
BetRivers
Where our projection leans · 2 of 3 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
3
Jonah Coleman DEN — Under 44.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 41 projection we are 28pp higher · 3 books
78%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
4
J.K. Dobbins DEN — Over 30.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 13 projection we are 14pp higher · 3 books
63%
lean · ours
−109
DraftKings
5
Emmett Johnson KC — Over 7.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 15 projection we are 7pp higher · 4 books
58%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
NE @ MIA4:25 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 5 projections
1
Jaylen Wright MIA — Under 14.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 5 · +0.87u rush under edge +20pp · 4 books VOID RISK 50% to play
70%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
2
Ollie Gordon II MIA — Under 62.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 69 projection we are 47pp higher · 3 books
98%
lean · ours
−114
DraftKings
3
Corey Kiner NE — Under 35.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 38 projection we are 37pp higher · 3 books
88%
lean · ours
−115
DraftKings
4
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — Under 59.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 82 projection we are 29pp higher · 4 books
79%
lean · ours
−110
DraftKings
5
Malik Willis MIA — Under 33.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 28pp higher · 3 books
78%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
6
Drake Maye NE — Under 23.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 5 projection we are 13pp higher · 3 books
63%
lean · ours
−109
BetOnline.ag
PHI @ WAS8:20 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Elijah Mitchell PHI — Under 26.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 34 projection we are 51pp higher · 3 books
100%
lean · ours
−108
DraftKings
2
Jeremy McNichols WAS — Under 19.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 21 projection we are 30pp higher · 5 books
80%
lean · ours
−110
BetOnline.ag
3
Rachaad White WAS — Under 40.5 Rushing Yds
MISS · actual 55 projection we are 25pp higher · 3 books
75%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
4
Saquon Barkley PHI — Under 52.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 30 projection we are 24pp higher · 2 books
74%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
5
Jayden Daniels WAS — Under 36.5 Rushing Yds
HIT · actual 23 projection we are 21pp higher · 4 books
70%
lean · ours
−109
DraftKings
Receiving Yds · 106 held
No receiving yds play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only, plus the held plays folded.
ARI @ DAL1:00 PM ET2 projections · 8 held
Where our projection leans · 0 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Reggie Virgil ARI — Over 8.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 15pp higher · 2 books
64%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
2
Javonte Williams DAL — Over 11.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 1 projection we are 12pp higher · 5 books
62%
lean · ours
−109
DraftKings
8 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
3
Elijah Higgins ARI — Under 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 10 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +44pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
95%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
4
Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +38pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
73%
hit · ours
+160
BetRivers
5
George Pickens DAL — Under 55.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 48 · +1.35u held — negative-EV backtest edge +21pp · 1 book
61%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
6
CeeDee Lamb DAL — Under 64.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 · +2.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +19pp · 1 book
50%
hit · ours
+200
Bovada
7
Michael Wilson ARI — Under 50.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 111 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book
56%
hit · ours
+140
Bovada
8
Kendrick Bourne ARI — Under 28.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 29 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +14pp · 1 book
50%
hit · ours
+160
Bovada
9
Ryan Flournoy DAL — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 38 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +9pp · 1 book
45%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
10
Trey McBride ARI — Under 64.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 72 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book
46%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
ATL @ TB1:00 PM ET1 projection · 9 held
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Austin Hooper ATL — Over 5.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 9 projection we are 22pp higher · 5 books
71%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
9 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Drake London ATL — Under 58.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 8 · +2.05u held — negative-EV backtest edge +47pp · 1 book
78%
hit · ours
+205
Bovada
3
Kyle Pitts ATL — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 6 · +1.70u held — negative-EV backtest edge +41pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
76%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
4
Chris Godwin TB — Under 30.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.60u held — negative-EV backtest edge +30pp · 1 book
66%
hit · ours
+160
Bovada
5
Tez Johnson TB — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.75u held — negative-EV backtest edge +26pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
60%
hit · ours
+175
Bovada
6
Zachariah Branch ATL — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +9pp · 5 books VOID RISK 65% to play
59%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
7
Bijan Robinson ATL — Under 32.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +8pp · 1 book
58%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
8
Kenny Gainwell TB — Under 11.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.91u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 5 books VOID RISK 72% to play
57%
hit · ours
−110
BetMGM
9
Cade Otton TB — Under 35.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.87u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book
56%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
10
Jahan Dotson ATL — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 95 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +5pp · 2 books
56%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
BAL @ BUF1:00 PM ET5 projections · 6 held
Where our projection leans · 1 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Rashod Bateman BAL — Over 25.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 22 projection we are 24pp higher · 4 books
74%
lean · ours
−111
BetOnline.ag
2
Mark Andrews BAL — Over 29.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 14 projection we are 20pp higher · 2 books
69%
lean · ours
−105
BetMGM
3
Dalton Kincaid BUF — Over 43.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 86 projection we are 18pp higher · 3 books
68%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
4
Joshua Palmer BUF — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 18pp higher · 3 books
68%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
5
Devontez Walker BAL — Over 0.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 24pp higher · 2 books
62%
lean · ours
+148
DraftKings
6 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
6
DJ Moore BUF — Under 43.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 82 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +43pp · 1 book VOID RISK 72% to play
82%
hit · ours
+145
Bovada
7
Josh Cuevas BAL — Under 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 15 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +39pp · 4 books VOID RISK 50% to play
89%
hit · ours
−110
BetMGM
8
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 13 · +1.75u held — negative-EV backtest edge +25pp · 1 book
59%
hit · ours
+175
Bovada
9
Zay Flowers BAL — Under 69.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.90u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 1 book
54%
hit · ours
+190
Bovada
10
Justice Hill BAL — Under 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 2 books VOID RISK 73% to play
68%
hit · ours
−117
DraftKings
11
Ty Johnson BUF — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 19 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
67%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
CLE @ PIT1:00 PM ET1 projection · 9 held
Where our projection leans · 1 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Quinshon Judkins CLE — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 24 projection we are 17pp higher · 4 books
67%
lean · ours
−105
DraftKings
9 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Darnell Washington PIT — Under 22.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 94 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +28pp · 2 books
78%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
3
Germie Bernard PIT — Under 33.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 · +1.50u held — negative-EV backtest edge +18pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
4
Jerry Jeudy CLE — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.92u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 5 books
67%
hit · ours
−109
DraftKings
5
Rico Dowdle PIT — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.93u held — negative-EV backtest edge +16pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
65%
hit · ours
−108
DraftKings
6
Jaylen Warren PIT — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +14pp · 1 book
61%
hit · ours
+100
BetMGM
7
Dylan Sampson CLE — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 62 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 5 books VOID RISK 65% to play
62%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
8
KC Concepcion CLE — Under 37.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 37 · +1.50u held — negative-EV backtest edge +11pp · 1 book
49%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
9
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE — Under 35.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 154 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book
56%
hit · ours
−114
BetRivers
10
DK Metcalf PIT — Under 55.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 4 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +5pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
IND @ JAX1:00 PM ET3 projections · 10 held
Where our projection leans · 1 of 3 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Brian Thomas Jr JAX — Over 10.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 12 projection we are 43pp higher · 5 books
93%
lean · ours
−110
DraftKings
2
Josh Downs IND — Over 32.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 23 projection we are 21pp higher · 2 books
71%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
3
Parker Washington JAX — Over 68.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 16 projection we are 9pp higher · 2 books
59%
lean · ours
−114
BetOnline.ag
10 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
4
Brenton Strange JAX — Under 30.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 55 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +42pp · 1 book
77%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
5
Jakobi Meyers JAX — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 24 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +41pp · 1 book VOID RISK 55% to play
76%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
6
Travis Hunter JAX — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +37pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
86%
hit · ours
−113
BetRivers
7
Nate Boerkircher JAX — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +28pp · 5 books VOID RISK 73% to play
79%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
8
Josh Cameron JAX — Under 13.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +26pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
76%
hit · ours
−113
BetRivers
9
Bhayshul Tuten JAX — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 55 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 1 book
74%
hit · ours
−120
BetMGM
10
Laquon Treadwell IND — Under 25.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 18 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +18pp · 1 book
68%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
11
Ashton Dulin IND — Under 4.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.80u held — negative-EV backtest edge +15pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
68%
hit · ours
−125
FanDuel
12
Tyler Warren IND — Under 41.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 18 · +0.88u held — negative-EV backtest edge +8pp · 2 books
58%
hit · ours
−114
BetOnline.ag
13
Keenan Allen IND — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 67 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book
40%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
LV @ NYJ1:00 PM ET4 projections · 8 held
Where our projection leans · 3 of 4 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Adonai Mitchell NYJ — Over 25.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 142 projection we are 35pp higher · 3 books
86%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
2
Jack Bech LV — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 12pp higher · 3 books
63%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
3
Jalen Nailor LV — Over 16.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 38 projection we are 9pp higher · 3 books
59%
lean · ours
−112
BetRivers
4
Michael Mayer LV — Over 25.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 53 projection we are 5pp higher · 3 books
55%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
8 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
5
Mason Taylor NYJ — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 19 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +37pp · 1 book
87%
hit · ours
−113
BetRivers
6
Braelon Allen NYJ — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 6 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +33pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
84%
hit · ours
−112
BetOnline.ag
7
Brock Bowers LV — Under 60.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 92 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +33pp · 1 book
73%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
8
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ — Under 31.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.55u held — negative-EV backtest edge +19pp · 1 book
56%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
9
Garrett Wilson NYJ — Under 53.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 83 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +16pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
+140
Bovada
10
Ashton Jeanty LV — Under 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 64 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 2 books
58%
hit · ours
−116
DraftKings
11
Kenyon Sadiq NYJ — Under 18.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 22 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +6pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
56%
hit · ours
−114
BetRivers
12
Tre Tucker LV — Under 38.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +1.55u held — negative-EV backtest edge +5pp · 1 book
42%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
MIN @ DET1:00 PM ET1 projection · 7 held
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Jauan Jennings MIN — Over 12.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 11 projection we are 26pp higher · 4 books
76%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
7 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Aaron Jones MIN — Under 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 18 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +30pp · 6 books
80%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
3
Jameson Williams DET — Under 41.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 70 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +25pp · 1 book
64%
hit · ours
+145
Bovada
4
T.J. Hockenson MIN — Under 32.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 58 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +15pp · 1 book
51%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
5
Jordan Addison MIN — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 66 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +9pp · 1 book
45%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
6
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Under 30.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 15 · +0.88u held — negative-EV backtest edge +8pp · 4 books
59%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
7
Sam LaPorta DET — Under 45.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 33 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 3 books
57%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
8
Isaac TeSlaa DET — Under 20.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.85u held — negative-EV backtest edge +4pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
−117
BetRivers
TEN @ CIN1:00 PM ET1 projection · 12 held
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Chimere Dike TEN — Under 9.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 71 projection we are 29pp higher · 1 book
79%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
12 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN — Under 36.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 57 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +37pp · 1 book
75%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
3
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Under 63.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 141 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +35pp · 1 book
66%
hit · ours
+200
Bovada
4
Mike Gesicki CIN — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 76 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
73%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
5
Tony Pollard TEN — Under 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 3 books
71%
hit · ours
+100
BetMGM
6
Dohnte Meyers CIN — Under 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 34 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 4 books VOID RISK 57% to play
72%
hit · ours
−107
DraftKings
7
Calvin Ridley TEN — Under 22.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 10 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 2 books
72%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
8
Drew Sample CIN — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.95u held — negative-EV backtest edge +18pp · 4 books
67%
hit · ours
−105
DraftKings
9
Daniel Bellinger TEN — Under 10.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 36 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +16pp · 2 books VOID RISK 73% to play
66%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
10
Tee Higgins CIN — Under 63.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 155 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +13pp · 1 book
53%
hit · ours
+135
Bovada
11
Elic Ayomanor TEN — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 34 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 1 book
46%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
12
Chase Brown CIN — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 46 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 4 books
57%
hit · ours
−112
DraftKings
13
Samaje Perine CIN — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 9 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
58%
hit · ours
−120
DraftKings
LAC @ LA4:05 PM ET12 held
12 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
1
Tyler Higbee LA — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 14 · +1.70u held — negative-EV backtest edge +56pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
91%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
2
Kimani Vidal LAC — Under 8.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 7 · +0.90u held — negative-EV backtest edge +33pp · 3 books VOID RISK 50% to play
84%
hit · ours
−111
DraftKings
3
Kyren Williams LA — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 3 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +30pp · 6 books
80%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
4
Ladd McConkey LAC — Under 38.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 86 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +20pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
58%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
5
Blake Corum LA — Under 7.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.88u held — negative-EV backtest edge +20pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
70%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
6
Keaton Mitchell LAC — Under 7.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 17 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +20pp · 2 books VOID RISK 65% to play
69%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
7
Charlie Kolar LAC — Under 18.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book
67%
hit · ours
−115
BetMGM
8
Konata Mumpfield LA — Under 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 4 books
67%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
9
Oronde Gadsden II LAC — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 52 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 4 books VOID RISK 73% to play
62%
hit · ours
−112
DraftKings
10
Tre Harris LAC — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +11pp · 1 book
45%
hit · ours
+170
Bovada
11
Omarion Hampton LAC — Under 6.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 7 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +4pp · 3 books
54%
hit · ours
−113
DraftKings
12
Puka Nacua LA — Under 72.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 80 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +4pp · 1 book
36%
hit · ours
+190
Bovada
KC @ DEN4:25 PM ET4 projections · 8 held
Where our projection leans · 2 of 4 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Kenneth Walker III KC — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 15 projection we are 17pp higher · 4 books
68%
lean · ours
−115
BetMGM
2
Jaylen Waddle DEN — Over 38.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 39 projection we are 16pp higher · 3 books
67%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
3
Travis Kelce KC — Over 45.5 Receiving Yds
HIT · actual 67 projection we are 9pp higher · 4 books
59%
lean · ours
−114
DraftKings
4
Xavier Worthy KC — Over 29.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 13 projection we are 6pp higher · 2 books
57%
lean · ours
−113
FanDuel
8 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
5
Noah Gray KC — Under 15.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 15 · +0.88u held — negative-EV backtest edge +32pp · 3 books
82%
hit · ours
−114
DraftKings
6
Jonah Coleman DEN — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 63 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +32pp · 5 books VOID RISK 65% to play
82%
hit · ours
−114
BetRivers
7
Rashee Rice KC — Under 39.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +31pp · 1 book
68%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
8
Evan Engram DEN — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 4 books
73%
hit · ours
−112
BetOnline.ag
9
Courtland Sutton DEN — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +18pp · 1 book
54%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
10
Cyrus Allen KC — Under 4.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +16pp · 1 book VOID RISK 50% to play
69%
hit · ours
−130
FanDuel
11
Troy Franklin DEN — Under 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 3 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +15pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
65%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
12
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN — Under 16.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 10 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
58%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
NE @ MIA4:25 PM ET1 projection · 10 held
Where our projection leans · 0 of 1 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Will Kacmarek MIA — Over 0.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 35pp higher · 2 books
79%
lean · ours
+114
DraftKings
10 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
2
Efton Chism III NE — Under 25.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 37 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +45pp · 3 books
95%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
3
Eli Raridon NE — Under 28.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 5 · +0.90u held — negative-EV backtest edge +40pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
89%
hit · ours
−111
BetMGM
4
Ollie Gordon II MIA — Under 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 · +0.93u held — negative-EV backtest edge +36pp · 2 books VOID RISK 57% to play
85%
hit · ours
−107
DraftKings
5
Kyle Williams NE — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 43 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +32pp · 1 book VOID RISK 57% to play
79%
hit · ours
−104
BetRivers
6
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — Under 25.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 8 · +0.93u held — negative-EV backtest edge +24pp · 2 books
73%
hit · ours
−108
DraftKings
7
DeMario Douglas NE — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 76 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 1 book
59%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
8
Chris Bell MIA — Under 18.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
73%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
9
Greg Dulcich MIA — Under 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 43 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 1 book
72%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
10
Hunter Henry NE — Under 34.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 · +1.50u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book
55%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
11
Caleb Douglas MIA — Under 37.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 43 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +7pp · 2 books
57%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
PHI @ WAS8:20 PM ET2 projections · 7 held
Where our projection leans · 0 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Dyami Brown WAS — Over 12.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 25pp higher · 6 books
74%
lean · ours
−108
DraftKings
2
Rachaad White WAS — Over 13.5 Receiving Yds
MISS · actual 5 projection we are 9pp higher · 6 books
58%
lean · ours
−102
FanDuel
7 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
3
Makai Lemon PHI — Under 33.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 57 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +41pp · 1 book
78%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
4
Dallas Goedert PHI — Under 35.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 · +1.45u held — negative-EV backtest edge +30pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
68%
hit · ours
+145
Bovada
5
Darius Cooper PHI — Under 27.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 19 · +0.89u held — negative-EV backtest edge +23pp · 3 books VOID RISK 65% to play
73%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
6
Antonio Williams WAS — Under 25.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 54 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 1 book VOID RISK 73% to play
57%
hit · ours
+165
Bovada
7
Chig Okonkwo WAS — Under 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 32 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +17pp · 1 book
54%
hit · ours
+160
Bovada
8
Saquon Barkley PHI — Under 13.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 24 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +13pp · 2 books VOID RISK 73% to play
64%
hit · ours
−117
DraftKings
9
Treylon Burks WAS — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 81 · -1.00u held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 4 books
62%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
Tackles
No tackles play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
ARI @ DAL1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Donovan Ezeiruaku DAL — Over 3.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 3 projection we are 32pp higher · 2 books
72%
lean · ours
+133
DraftKings
2
Caleb Downs DAL — Under 6.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 19pp higher · 2 books
67%
lean · ours
+108
DraftKings
3
DeMarvion Overshown DAL — Under 5.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 8 projection we are 13pp higher · 3 books
66%
lean · ours
−130
BetOnline.ag
4
Jack Gibbens ARI — Over 6.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 11 projection we are 18pp higher · 2 books
63%
lean · ours
+115
BetOnline.ag
5
Budda Baker ARI — Under 6.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 12pp higher · 2 books
63%
lean · ours
−118
DraftKings
ATL @ TB1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
LaCale London ATL — Under 3.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 5 projection we are 22pp higher · 1 book
79%
lean · ours
−149
BetOnline.ag
2
Gervon Dexter Sr. ATL — Under 3.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 3 projection we are 22pp higher · 1 book
78%
lean · ours
−149
BetOnline.ag
3
C.J. Henderson ATL — Under 4.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 8 projection we are 19pp higher · 3 books
71%
lean · ours
−131
DraftKings
4
Tykee Smith TB — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 25pp higher · 3 books
70%
lean · ours
+112
DraftKings
5
Alex Anzalone TB — Over 5.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 5 projection we are 14pp higher · 2 books
69%
lean · ours
−146
DraftKings
BAL @ BUF1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 4 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Trenton Simpson BAL — Under 6.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 28pp higher · 2 books
79%
lean · ours
−117
DraftKings
2
Cole Bishop BUF — Under 6.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 22pp higher · 3 books
75%
lean · ours
−116
DraftKings
3
Dorian Williams BUF — Under 6.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 25pp higher · 3 books
73%
lean · ours
−103
DraftKings
4
Deone Walker BUF — Under 3.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 2 projection we are 15pp higher · 3 books
68%
lean · ours
−125
DraftKings
5
Christian Benford BUF — Over 3.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 1 projection we are 17pp higher · 2 books
68%
lean · ours
−120
DraftKings
CLE @ PIT1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Patrick Queen PIT — Under 7.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 12 projection we are 24pp higher · 2 books
77%
lean · ours
−118
DraftKings
2
Quincy Williams CLE — Under 7.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 5 projection we are 20pp higher · 3 books
75%
lean · ours
−135
DraftKings
3
Jaquan Brisker PIT — Under 6.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 24pp higher · 3 books
74%
lean · ours
−112
DraftKings
4
T.J. Watt PIT — Over 2.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 2 projection we are 13pp higher · 2 books
70%
lean · ours
−156
BetOnline.ag
5
Jalen Ramsey PIT — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 21pp higher · 3 books
69%
lean · ours
−107
DraftKings
IND @ JAX1:00 PM ET2 projections
Where our projection leans · 0 of 2 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Foyesade Oluokun JAX — Under 7.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 8 projection we are 28pp higher · 2 books
72%
lean · ours
+110
BetOnline.ag
2
Cam Bynum IND — Over 4.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 0 projection we are 9pp higher · 3 books
59%
lean · ours
+110
BetOnline.ag
LV @ NYJ1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Dane Belton NYJ — Under 7.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 12 projection we are 35pp higher · 3 books
88%
lean · ours
−121
DraftKings
2
Jeremy Chinn LV — Under 6.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 10 projection we are 30pp higher · 3 books
79%
lean · ours
−108
DraftKings
3
Jamien Sherwood NYJ — Under 7.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 14 projection we are 32pp higher · 2 books
77%
lean · ours
+112
DraftKings
4
Nakobe Dean LV — Under 9.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 11 projection we are 22pp higher · 3 books
76%
lean · ours
−128
DraftKings
5
Demario Davis NYJ — Under 7.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 7 projection we are 21pp higher · 2 books
65%
lean · ours
+112
DraftKings
MIN @ DET1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 4 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Blake Cashman MIN — Under 10.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 10 projection we are 34pp higher · 2 books
89%
lean · ours
−139
BetOnline.ag
2
Jack Campbell DET — Under 8.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 3 projection we are 40pp higher · 3 books
85%
lean · ours
+113
DraftKings
3
Josh Metellus MIN — Under 6.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 13 projection we are 29pp higher · 3 books
78%
lean · ours
−106
BetOnline.ag
4
Chuck Clark DET — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 3 projection we are 13pp higher · 3 books
68%
lean · ours
−139
DraftKings
5
Brian Branch DET — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 3 projection we are 8pp higher · 3 books
61%
lean · ours
−122
DraftKings
TEN @ CIN1:00 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Kevin Winston Jr. TEN — Under 7.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 8 projection we are 22pp higher · 3 books
74%
lean · ours
−117
DraftKings
2
Barrett Carter CIN — Under 7.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 8 projection we are 23pp higher · 2 books
71%
lean · ours
−107
DraftKings
3
Amani Hooker TEN — Under 6.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 6 projection we are 13pp higher · 3 books
69%
lean · ours
−147
DraftKings
4
Dax Hill CIN — Over 4.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 4 projection we are 15pp higher · 3 books
60%
lean · ours
+114
BetRivers
5
Bryan Cook CIN — Under 4.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 5 projection we are 8pp higher · 3 books
57%
lean · ours
−108
DraftKings
LAC @ LA4:05 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 4 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Tony Jefferson LAC — Under 5.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 19pp higher · 3 books
76%
lean · ours
−156
DraftKings
2
Elijah Molden LAC — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 1 projection we are 19pp higher · 3 books
71%
lean · ours
−123
BetOnline.ag
3
Daiyan Henley LAC — Under 6.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 5 projection we are 17pp higher · 3 books
67%
lean · ours
−114
BetOnline.ag
4
Nate Landman LA — Under 7.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 7 projection we are 18pp higher · 2 books
63%
lean · ours
+113
DraftKings
5
Kamren Curl LA — Under 4.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 19pp higher · 3 books
62%
lean · ours
+124
DraftKings
KC @ DEN4:25 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 3 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Justin Strnad DEN — Over 3.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 2 projection we are 17pp higher · 2 books
74%
lean · ours
−154
DraftKings
2
Nick Bolton KC — Under 8.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 9 projection we are 9pp higher · 3 books
59%
lean · ours
−111
DraftKings
3
Nohl Williams KC — Under 4.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 9pp higher · 3 books
57%
lean · ours
−105
DraftKings
4
Riley Moss DEN — Over 3.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 4 projection book agrees · 3 books
56%
lean · ours
−136
BetRivers
5
Drue Tranquill KC — Under 7.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 5 projection book agrees · 2 books
55%
lean · ours
−152
DraftKings
NE @ MIA4:25 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 2 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Dante Trader Jr. MIA — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 4 projection we are 34pp higher · 2 books
82%
lean · ours
−104
DraftKings
2
Jordyn Brooks MIA — Under 8.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 11 projection we are 34pp higher · 2 books
79%
lean · ours
+114
DraftKings
3
Zach Sieler MIA — Under 3.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 6 projection we are 16pp higher · 2 books
76%
lean · ours
−174
DraftKings
4
Kevin Byard NE — Under 5.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 7 projection we are 16pp higher · 3 books
70%
lean · ours
−118
DraftKings
5
Craig Woodson NE — Under 5.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 5 projection we are 19pp higher · 3 books
69%
lean · ours
−119
DraftKings
PHI @ WAS8:20 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans · 1 of 5 hit our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Sonny Styles WAS — Under 7.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 8 projection we are 34pp higher · 3 books
81%
lean · ours
−101
DraftKings
2
Frankie Luvu WAS — Under 6.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 8 projection we are 22pp higher · 3 books
76%
lean · ours
−126
DraftKings
3
Zack Baun PHI — Under 8.5 Tackles
HIT · actual 7 projection we are 16pp higher · 2 books
64%
lean · ours
−102
DraftKings
4
Nick Cross WAS — Under 5.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 9 projection we are 15pp higher · 3 books
61%
lean · ours
+103
DraftKings
5
Andrew Mukuba PHI — Under 4.5 Tackles
MISS · actual 9 projection we are 13pp higher · 2 books
59%
lean · ours
+105
DraftKings
Mon Nov 2
CHI @ SEA · first kickoff 8:15 PM ET · 9 plays · 5 held
One game tonight. The rule gives one to three plays on a single-game night, so the night itself is close to a coin flip even when the plays are right — the week's record is made on Sunday. Treat these as small adds; the slips below stack the night's best legs across venues.
Tonight's slips the night's floor legs stacked, at most four legs and two per team on a single game; receiving-yards and passing-TD legs need a real 80% before any log lift · more on the 🎟 tab
Books · safe
safe−192our chance 60%3 legs · 1u
safe ticketone unit · 80%+ legs that have hit their line all season, by a margin
−192
3 legs · stake 1u
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR
Over 4.5 Receptions · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 83% → 89%
−586DraftKings
89% to hit
89% to hit
D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB
Over 29.5 Rushing Yds · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 84% → 86%
−890DraftKings
86% to hit
86% to hit
Rome OdunzeCHI · WR
Over 1.5 Receptions · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 78% → 84%
−595DraftKings
78% to hit
78% to hit
our chance 60%fair price −147book pays −192
PrizePicks · 2-pick power play
2-pick power play+200our chance 35%2 legs · 0.5u
2-pick power play tickethalf a unit · pays 3x · our two likeliest More/Less picks at PrizePicks' own lines, one per team
+200
2 legs · stake 0.5u
Colston LovelandCHI · TE
Under 4 Receptions · last 5 1/5 · last 10 4/10 · this season 3/7
LessPrizePicks
59% to hit
59% to hit
AJ BarnerSEA · TE
Under 8 Fantasy Score · last 5 3/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 5/7
LessPrizePicks
58% to hit
58% to hit
our chance 35%fair price +188book pays +200
Plays by prop
Only groups with a profitable record are shown (trimmed 2026-10-06 on four graded weeks): core = rushing-yards unders and receptions overs where we differ from the book by 15–25 points, and anytime TDs 3–6 points above the blended price; big gap = receptions unders 25+ points apart; rookie path = rookie rushing-yards unders. Each group's record is in the Results tab. Everything else that cleared the filters is held — graded, reason on the row, shown under Held plays — until it earns a record. Hold groups with a losing record are not listed at all; their record stays in the Results tab.
14 plays
Best value · every prop, by game, biggest edge first
CHI @ SEA8:20 PM ET9 plays · 9 core · 5 held
1
Cooper Kupp SEA — Under 29.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +21pp · 4 books
70%
hit · ours
−111
BetOnline.ag
2
Roschon Johnson CHI — Under 3.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +20pp · 5 books VOID RISK 57% to play
71%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
3
Tory Horton SEA — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +19pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
69%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
4
D'Andre Swift CHI — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +13pp · 4 books
63%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
5
Sam Darnold SEA — Under 5.5 Rushing Yds
rush under edge +11pp · 2 books
64%
hit · ours
−120
BetMGM
6
D'Andre Swift CHI — Under 50.5 Rushing Yds
rush under edge +10pp · 1 book
47%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
7
Zach Charbonnet SEA — Under 7.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +9pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
58%
hit · ours
−112
BetRivers
8
Emanuel Wilson SEA — Anytime TD
core edge +5pp · 7 books VOID RISK 65% to play
32%
hit · ours
+360
BetMGM
9
Caleb Williams CHI — Under 15.5 Rushing Yds
rush under edge +5pp · 1 book
34%
hit · ours
+225
Bovada
5 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
10
Colston Loveland CHI — Under 33.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +45pp · 1 book
82%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
11
AJ Barner SEA — Under 20.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +45pp · 1 book
79%
hit · ours
+180
Bovada
12
Rome Odunze CHI — Under 30.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 1 book
58%
hit · ours
+160
Bovada
13
Luther Burden III CHI — Under 43.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 1 book
50%
hit · ours
+145
Bovada
14
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — Under 80.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +4pp · 1 book
37%
hit · ours
+185
Bovada
Anytime TD · 1 core
CHI @ SEA8:20 PM ET1 play · 1 core · 5 projections
1
Emanuel Wilson SEA — Anytime TD
core edge +5pp · 7 books VOID RISK 65% to play
32%
hit · ours
+360
BetMGM
Most likely to score our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — Anytime TD
projection book is 3pp higher · 7 books
56%
score · ours
−105
FanDuel
3
D'Andre Swift CHI — Anytime TD
projection book is 7pp higher · 7 books
54%
score · ours
−115
DraftKings
4
Zach Charbonnet SEA — Anytime TD
projection book agrees · 7 books VOID RISK 65% to play
47%
score · ours
+140
BetMGM
5
Kyle Monangai CHI — Anytime TD
projection book is 29pp higher · 1 book VOID RISK 0% to play
29%
score · ours
−125
BetOnline.ag
6
Luther Burden III CHI — Anytime TD
projection book is 6pp higher · 7 books
28%
score · ours
+230
DraftKings
Passing Yds
No passing yds play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
CHI @ SEA8:20 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Sam Darnold SEA — Over 237.5 Passing Yds
projection we are 8pp higher · 2 books
58%
lean · ours
−113
DraftKings
Passing TDs
No passing tds play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
CHI @ SEA8:20 PM ET1 projection
Where our projection leans our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Caleb Williams CHI — Under 1.5 Passing TDs
projection we are 6pp higher · 7 books
65%
lean · ours
−159
BetOnline.ag
Receptions
No receptions play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
CHI @ SEA8:20 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Jadarian Price SEA — Under 1.5 Receptions
projection we are 43pp higher · 1 book VOID RISK 0% to play
100%
lean · ours
−154
BetOnline.ag
2
Colston Loveland CHI — Under 4.5 Receptions
projection we are 37pp higher · 6 books
93%
lean · ours
−142
DraftKings
3
AJ Barner SEA — Under 3.5 Receptions
projection we are 34pp higher · 6 books
92%
lean · ours
−156
BetOnline.ag
4
Kalif Raymond CHI — Over 2.5 Receptions
projection we are 39pp higher · 5 books
78%
lean · ours
+147
DraftKings
5
Rome Odunze CHI — Under 3.5 Receptions
projection we are 16pp higher · 6 books
75%
lean · ours
−162
DraftKings
Rushing Yds · 3 core
CHI @ SEA8:20 PM ET3 plays · 3 core · 3 projections
1
Sam Darnold SEA — Under 5.5 Rushing Yds
rush under edge +11pp · 2 books
64%
hit · ours
−120
BetMGM
2
D'Andre Swift CHI — Under 50.5 Rushing Yds
rush under edge +10pp · 1 book
47%
hit · ours
+150
Bovada
3
Caleb Williams CHI — Under 15.5 Rushing Yds
rush under edge +5pp · 1 book
34%
hit · ours
+225
Bovada
Where our projection leans our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
4
Jadarian Price SEA — Under 27.5 Rushing Yds
projection we are 50pp higher · 2 books VOID RISK 0% to play
100%
lean · ours
−110
Bovada
5
Emanuel Wilson SEA — Over 21.5 Rushing Yds
projection we are 27pp higher · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
77%
lean · ours
−110
Bovada
6
Roschon Johnson CHI — Under 10.5 Rushing Yds
projection we are 16pp higher · 5 books VOID RISK 57% to play
65%
lean · ours
−108
DraftKings
Receiving Yds · 5 core · 5 held
CHI @ SEA8:20 PM ET5 plays · 5 core · 3 projections · 5 held
1
Cooper Kupp SEA — Under 29.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +21pp · 4 books
70%
hit · ours
−111
BetOnline.ag
2
Roschon Johnson CHI — Under 3.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +20pp · 5 books VOID RISK 57% to play
71%
hit · ours
−110
DraftKings
3
Tory Horton SEA — Under 23.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +19pp · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
69%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
4
D'Andre Swift CHI — Under 21.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +13pp · 4 books
63%
hit · ours
−113
FanDuel
5
Zach Charbonnet SEA — Under 7.5 Receiving Yds
night · tracking edge +9pp · 4 books VOID RISK 65% to play
58%
hit · ours
−112
BetRivers
Where our projection leans our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
6
Jadarian Price SEA — Under 9.5 Receiving Yds
projection we are 50pp higher · 1 book VOID RISK 0% to play
100%
lean · ours
−112
BetOnline.ag
7
Kalif Raymond CHI — Over 17.5 Receiving Yds
projection we are 36pp higher · 3 books
85%
lean · ours
−109
DraftKings
8
Eric Saubert SEA — Under 4.5 Receiving Yds
projection book agrees · 1 book VOID RISK 65% to play
60%
lean · ours
−174
FanDuel
5 held plays — clear the filters but we would not bet them; the tag on each says why
9
Colston Loveland CHI — Under 33.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +45pp · 1 book
82%
hit · ours
+155
Bovada
10
AJ Barner SEA — Under 20.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +45pp · 1 book
79%
hit · ours
+180
Bovada
11
Rome Odunze CHI — Under 30.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +22pp · 1 book
58%
hit · ours
+160
Bovada
12
Luther Burden III CHI — Under 43.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +12pp · 1 book
50%
hit · ours
+145
Bovada
13
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — Under 80.5 Receiving Yds
held — negative-EV backtest edge +4pp · 1 book
37%
hit · ours
+185
Bovada
Tackles
No tackles play we would bet on this day — what is under each game is projection only.
CHI @ SEA8:20 PM ET5 projections
Where our projection leans our probability, price ignored — a projection, not a bet
1
Austin Booker CHI — Under 2.5 Tackles
projection we are 24pp higher · 2 books VOID RISK 57% to play
71%
lean · ours
+110
BetOnline.ag
2
Devin Bush CHI — Under 7.5 Tackles
projection we are 15pp higher · 1 book VOID RISK 57% to play
71%
lean · ours
−144
DraftKings
3
Ty Okada SEA — Under 4.5 Tackles
projection we are 9pp higher · 3 books VOID RISK 50% to play
65%
lean · ours
−147
BetOnline.ag
4
Julian Love SEA — Over 3.5 Tackles
projection book agrees · 2 books VOID RISK 50% to play
62%
lean · ours
−162
DraftKings
5
Nick Emmanwori SEA — Under 5.5 Tackles
projection we are 12pp higher · 3 books VOID RISK 57% to play
62%
lean · ours
+100
BetOnline.ag
Alt lines — favourites
Alternate rungs chosen for how often they hit, not for edge: a blended chance of 80% or better (the market's number plus a fifth of our disagreement — the figure that has matched the hit rate within a point in every band), three or more books. The price already carries the book's hold, so these are legs for slips, not value bets. Overs only — the feed posts no alternate unders.
tracking
Tracking, season to date: the rungs shown here are 564–129 (81%, -45.58u flat). Every rung the books posted, shown or not, has hit 27% of the time across 52,193 graded rungs. The label comes off once a few hundred rungs per prop hold their stated band.
Parlay legs on the same player or the same offence rise and fall together, so a slip that stacks them is riskier than the percentages multiplied. Star rungs to build a slip in My picks.
Thu Oct 29 · 12 rungs · 11–1 +0.20u · odds pulled 2026-10-29 19:03 UTC
Passing Yds 1 rungs
1
Jordan Love GB — Over 199.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 288 · main line 262.5 · edge -3pp · 6 books
82%
hit · blended
−575
Fanatics
Receptions 5 rungs
1
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — Over 2.5 Receptions
WON actual 6 · main line 5.5 · edge -5pp · 5 books
87%
hit · blended
−1250
Caesars
2
Jalen Coker CAR — Over 2.5 Receptions
LOST actual 2 · main line 4.5 · edge +3pp · 5 books
87%
hit · blended
−950
Caesars
3
Tucker Kraft GB — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 6 · main line 4.5 · edge -25pp · 3 books
85%
hit · blended
−1600
DraftKings
4
Christian Watson GB — Over 2.5 Receptions
WON actual 8 · main line 4.5 · edge +2pp · 5 books
84%
hit · blended
−750
Caesars
5
Matthew Golden GB — Over 2.5 Receptions
WON actual 7 · main line 4.5 · edge -7pp · 5 books
81%
hit · blended
−600
FanDuel
Receiving Yds 4 rungs
1
Christian Watson GB — Over 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 113 · main line 70.5 · edge +5pp · 3 books
89%
hit · blended
−870
DraftKings
2
Matthew Golden GB — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 79 · main line 58.5 · edge +0pp · 3 books
88%
hit · blended
−1060
DraftKings
3
Jalen Coker CAR — Over 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 36 · main line 60.5 · edge +3pp · 3 books
88%
hit · blended
−970
DraftKings
4
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — Over 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 58 · main line 72.5 · edge -0pp · 4 books
86%
hit · blended
−730
DraftKings
Rushing Yds 2 rungs
1
Josh Jacobs GB — Over 24.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 39 · main line 58.5 · edge -9pp · 3 books
88%
hit · blended
−1460
DraftKings
2
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Over 29.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 81 · main line 67.5 · edge -13pp · 3 books
86%
hit · blended
−1450
Caesars
Sun Nov 1 · 129 rungs · 108–21 -7.47u · odds pulled 2026-11-01 17:12 UTC
Passing Yds 14 rungs
1
Michael Penix Jr. ATL — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
LOST actual 125 · main line 225.5 · edge +0pp · 4 books
87%
hit · blended
−1000
Fanatics
2
Patrick Mahomes KC — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 321 · main line 223.5 · edge -1pp · 4 books
86%
hit · blended
−800
FanDuel
3
Geno Smith NYJ — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 290 · main line 225.5 · edge -2pp · 3 books
85%
hit · blended
−900
FanDuel
4
Kyler Murray MIN — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 210 · main line 221.5 · edge -7pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−1000
FanDuel
5
Dak Prescott DAL — Over 199.5 Passing Yds
LOST actual 195 · main line 271.5 · edge -5pp · 5 books
84%
hit · blended
−700
FanDuel
6
Aaron Rodgers PIT — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 172 · main line 214.5 · edge -2pp · 4 books
84%
hit · blended
−650
FanDuel
7
Deshaun Watson CLE — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 324 · main line 207.5 · edge +5pp · 5 books
83%
hit · blended
−525
Fanatics
8
Justin Herbert LAC — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 257 · main line 205.5 · edge +9pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−490
FanDuel
9
Baker Mayfield TB — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
LOST actual 0 · main line 212.5 · edge -9pp · 4 books
82%
hit · blended
−670
FanDuel
10
Tanner McKee PHI — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 212 · main line 204.5 · edge +8pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−470
FanDuel
11
Joe Burrow CIN — Over 199.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 462 · main line 272.5 · edge -22pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−900
FanDuel
12
Bo Nix DEN — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 222 · main line 208.5 · edge -6pp · 5 books
81%
hit · blended
−575
Fanatics
13
Jayden Daniels WAS — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 217 · main line 198.5 · edge +5pp · 5 books
80%
hit · blended
−440
FanDuel
14
Kirk Cousins LV — Over 174.5 Passing Yds
WON actual 247 · main line 231.5 · edge +3pp · 3 books
80%
hit · blended
−440
FanDuel
Receptions 46 rungs
1
Travis Kelce KC — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 5 · main line 4.5 · edge +2pp · 4 books
90%
hit · blended
−1700
Caesars
2
Sam LaPorta DET — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 4.5 · edge -4pp · 3 books
90%
hit · blended
−2000
Caesars
3
DK Metcalf PIT — Over 1.5 Receptions
LOST actual 1 · main line 4.5 · edge -0pp · 3 books
90%
hit · blended
−1700
Caesars
4
Michael Wilson ARI — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 8 · main line 4.5 · edge -4pp · 3 books
90%
hit · blended
−2000
Caesars
5
Stefon Diggs WAS — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 4.5 · edge -1pp · 4 books
88%
hit · blended
−1450
Caesars
6
Malik Washington MIA — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 5 · main line 4.5 · edge -3pp · 3 books
88%
hit · blended
−1430
BetRivers
7
Jaylen Waddle DEN — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 3.5 · edge +4pp · 4 books
88%
hit · blended
−1200
Caesars
8
Khalil Shakir BUF — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 5 · main line 4.5 · edge -5pp · 4 books
88%
hit · blended
−1250
Caesars
9
Dalton Kincaid BUF — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 4 · main line 3.5 · edge +6pp · 5 books
88%
hit · blended
−950
Fanatics
10
Brock Bowers LV — Over 2.5 Receptions
WON actual 7 · main line 5.5 · edge -17pp · 3 books
88%
hit · blended
−2000
Caesars
11
Bijan Robinson ATL — Over 1.5 Receptions
LOST actual 0 · main line 3.5 · edge -5pp · 4 books
88%
hit · blended
−1600
FanDuel
12
Hunter Henry NE — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 4.5 · edge -11pp · 4 books
87%
hit · blended
−1450
Caesars
13
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 2 · main line 4.5 · edge -6pp · 4 books
87%
hit · blended
−1240
DraftKings
14
Puka Nacua LA — Over 4.5 Receptions
WON actual 11 · main line 7.5 · edge -6pp · 5 books
87%
hit · blended
−1120
DraftKings
15
Ashton Jeanty LV — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 3.5 · edge -2pp · 5 books
86%
hit · blended
−1000
FanDuel
16
Tre Tucker LV — Over 1.5 Receptions
LOST actual 0 · main line 3.5 · edge -3pp · 5 books
86%
hit · blended
−1180
DraftKings
17
Parker Washington JAX — Over 2.5 Receptions
LOST actual 1 · main line 4.5 · edge +7pp · 5 books
86%
hit · blended
−800
DraftKings
18
Garrett Wilson NYJ — Over 2.5 Receptions
WON actual 6 · main line 5.5 · edge -11pp · 5 books
86%
hit · blended
−1120
DraftKings
19
Ladd McConkey LAC — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 4 · main line 3.5 · edge -11pp · 4 books VOID RISK 73% to play
86%
hit · blended
−1160
DraftKings
20
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 10 · main line 3.5 · edge -7pp · 5 books
86%
hit · blended
−1040
DraftKings
21
Tee Higgins CIN — Over 2.5 Receptions
WON actual 10 · main line 5.5 · edge -7pp · 5 books
85%
hit · blended
−850
Caesars
22
CeeDee Lamb DAL — Over 3.5 Receptions
WON actual 7 · main line 6.5 · edge -14pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−1200
Caesars
23
Chris Godwin TB — Over 1.5 Receptions
LOST actual 0 · main line 4.5 · edge -27pp · 3 books
85%
hit · blended
−2000
Caesars
24
Kendrick Bourne ARI — Over 1.5 Receptions
LOST actual 1 · main line 3.5 · edge -9pp · 5 books
85%
hit · blended
−1000
Caesars
25
Cade Otton TB — Over 1.5 Receptions
LOST actual 0 · main line 3.5 · edge -5pp · 5 books
84%
hit · blended
−910
BetRivers
26
Mark Andrews BAL — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 3.5 · edge +7pp · 5 books
84%
hit · blended
−670
FanDuel
27
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Over 3.5 Receptions
WON actual 11 · main line 6.5 · edge -30pp · 4 books
83%
hit · blended
−1450
Caesars
28
Trey McBride ARI — Over 4.5 Receptions
WON actual 7 · main line 7.5 · edge -12pp · 5 books
83%
hit · blended
−770
BetRivers
29
Josh Downs IND — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 4 · main line 3.5 · edge +9pp · 5 books
83%
hit · blended
−490
FanDuel
30
Ryan Flournoy DAL — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 3.5 · edge -4pp · 5 books
83%
hit · blended
−715
BetRivers
31
Zay Flowers BAL — Over 3.5 Receptions
LOST actual 0 · main line 6.5 · edge -10pp · 5 books
83%
hit · blended
−850
Caesars
32
Xavier Worthy KC — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 3.5 · edge -1pp · 5 books
83%
hit · blended
−680
DraftKings
33
Chase Brown CIN — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 8 · main line 3.5 · edge -10pp · 5 books
83%
hit · blended
−750
FanDuel
34
DJ Moore BUF — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 4 · main line 4.5 · edge -37pp · 3 books VOID RISK 72% to play
82%
hit · blended
−1700
Caesars
35
Jameson Williams DET — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 4 · main line 3.5 · edge -11pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−800
Caesars
36
Denzel Boston CLE — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 6 · main line 3.5 · edge +4pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−620
DraftKings
37
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET — Over 4.5 Receptions
WON actual 7 · main line 7.5 · edge -4pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−650
FanDuel
38
KC Concepcion CLE — Over 2.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 4.5 · edge -13pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−750
Caesars
39
Kenneth Walker III KC — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 4 · main line 3.5 · edge +4pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−550
FanDuel
40
Brenton Strange JAX — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 2 · main line 3.5 · edge -34pp · 4 books
81%
hit · blended
−1160
DraftKings
41
George Pickens DAL — Over 2.5 Receptions
LOST actual 2 · main line 4.5 · edge -7pp · 5 books
81%
hit · blended
−670
FanDuel
42
DeMario Douglas NE — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 3.5 · edge -17pp · 5 books
81%
hit · blended
−750
FanDuel
43
Chig Okonkwo WAS — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 2 · main line 3.5 · edge -12pp · 5 books
81%
hit · blended
−690
DraftKings
44
Courtland Sutton DEN — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 4 · main line 3.5 · edge -14pp · 5 books
81%
hit · blended
−670
FanDuel
45
Jordan Addison MIN — Over 1.5 Receptions
WON actual 3 · main line 3.5 · edge -9pp · 5 books
80%
hit · blended
−625
Caesars
46
Tyler Warren IND — Over 2.5 Receptions
WON actual 4 · main line 4.5 · edge -11pp · 5 books
80%
hit · blended
−559
DraftKings
Receiving Yds 45 rungs
1
Parker Washington JAX — Over 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST actual 16 · main line 68.5 · edge +6pp · 3 books
90%
hit · blended
−1160
DraftKings
2
Jaylen Waddle DEN — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 39 · main line 38.5 · edge +9pp · 4 books
89%
hit · blended
−1200
Caesars
3
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 154 · main line 34.5 · edge +2pp · 4 books
88%
hit · blended
−1120
DraftKings
4
Ryan Flournoy DAL — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 38 · main line 37.5 · edge -1pp · 4 books
87%
hit · blended
−1040
DraftKings
5
Michael Wilson ARI — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 111 · main line 60.5 · edge -5pp · 3 books
87%
hit · blended
−1250
Caesars
6
Keenan Allen IND — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 67 · main line 34.5 · edge -1pp · 4 books
87%
hit · blended
−1080
DraftKings
7
Kendrick Bourne ARI — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 29 · main line 38.5 · edge -4pp · 3 books
87%
hit · blended
−1250
Caesars
8
Cade Otton TB — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST actual 0 · main line 33.5 · edge +3pp · 4 books
87%
hit · blended
−920
DraftKings
9
Bijan Robinson ATL — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST actual 0 · main line 31.5 · edge +1pp · 4 books
86%
hit · blended
−900
DraftKings
10
Josh Downs IND — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 23 · main line 32.5 · edge +13pp · 5 books
86%
hit · blended
−670
FanDuel
11
Jordan Addison MIN — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 66 · main line 37.5 · edge +0pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−740
DraftKings
12
George Pickens DAL — Over 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 48 · main line 65.5 · edge -11pp · 3 books
85%
hit · blended
−1020
DraftKings
13
Tee Higgins CIN — Over 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 155 · main line 72.5 · edge -3pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−960
DraftKings
14
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET — Over 39.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 46 · main line 77.5 · edge +2pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−900
DraftKings
15
Zay Flowers BAL — Over 39.5 Receiving Yds
LOST actual 0 · main line 89.5 · edge -12pp · 3 books
85%
hit · blended
−1100
DraftKings
16
DK Metcalf PIT — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST actual 4 · main line 53.5 · edge +2pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−600
DraftKings
17
Caleb Douglas MIA — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 43 · main line 35.5 · edge +2pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−740
DraftKings
18
Mark Andrews BAL — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 14 · main line 28.5 · edge +14pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−588
DraftKings
19
Courtland Sutton DEN — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 53 · main line 37.5 · edge -7pp · 4 books
85%
hit · blended
−1000
Caesars
20
DeMario Douglas NE — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 76 · main line 37.5 · edge -12pp · 3 books
85%
hit · blended
−1120
DraftKings
21
Puka Nacua LA — Over 49.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 80 · main line 92.5 · edge -2pp · 5 books
85%
hit · blended
−710
DraftKings
22
Travis Kelce KC — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 67 · main line 45.5 · edge +8pp · 4 books
84%
hit · blended
−630
DraftKings
23
CeeDee Lamb DAL — Over 39.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 58 · main line 84.5 · edge -11pp · 4 books
84%
hit · blended
−820
DraftKings
24
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST actual 0 · main line 41.5 · edge -9pp · 4 books
84%
hit · blended
−780
DraftKings
25
Chig Okonkwo WAS — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 32 · main line 34.5 · edge -6pp · 4 books
84%
hit · blended
−770
DraftKings
26
Xavier Worthy KC — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 13 · main line 29.5 · edge +6pp · 4 books
84%
hit · blended
−670
DraftKings
27
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 15 · main line 30.5 · edge +1pp · 4 books
84%
hit · blended
−750
FanDuel
28
Trey McBride ARI — Over 39.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 72 · main line 74.5 · edge -2pp · 4 books
83%
hit · blended
−730
DraftKings
29
Antonio Williams WAS — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 54 · main line 35.5 · edge -12pp · 4 books VOID RISK 73% to play
83%
hit · blended
−800
DraftKings
30
Ashton Jeanty LV — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 64 · main line 27.5 · edge +1pp · 4 books
83%
hit · blended
−590
Caesars
31
Dalton Kincaid BUF — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 86 · main line 43.5 · edge +14pp · 4 books
83%
hit · blended
−471
DraftKings
32
Sam LaPorta DET — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 33 · main line 45.5 · edge -1pp · 4 books
82%
hit · blended
−586
DraftKings
33
Quentin Johnston LAC — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 37 · main line 31.5 · edge +7pp · 4 books
82%
hit · blended
−509
DraftKings
34
KC Concepcion CLE — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 37 · main line 46.5 · edge -7pp · 4 books
82%
hit · blended
−750
Fanatics
35
Tre Tucker LV — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST actual 0 · main line 48.5 · edge +1pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−670
DraftKings
36
Brock Bowers LV — Over 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 92 · main line 70.5 · edge -20pp · 4 books
82%
hit · blended
−780
DraftKings
37
Tre Harris LAC — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 31 · main line 33.5 · edge -2pp · 4 books
82%
hit · blended
−584
DraftKings
38
Elic Ayomanor TEN — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 34 · main line 33.5 · edge -2pp · 5 books
82%
hit · blended
−530
DraftKings
39
Ted Hurst III TB — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST actual 0 · main line 30.5 · edge +7pp · 4 books
81%
hit · blended
−520
DraftKings
40
Denzel Boston CLE — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 37 · main line 47.5 · edge +4pp · 5 books
81%
hit · blended
−530
BetRivers
41
Michael Mayer LV — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 53 · main line 25.5 · edge +7pp · 5 books
81%
hit · blended
−400
DraftKings
42
Garrett Wilson NYJ — Over 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 83 · main line 63.5 · edge -9pp · 4 books
81%
hit · blended
−530
DraftKings
43
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Over 39.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 141 · main line 83.5 · edge -27pp · 4 books
80%
hit · blended
−810
DraftKings
44
Stefon Diggs WAS — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 38 · main line 42.5 · edge +3pp · 5 books
80%
hit · blended
−475
DraftKings
45
Jameson Williams DET — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON actual 70 · main line 51.5 · edge -16pp · 4 books
80%
hit · blended
−740
DraftKings
Rushing Yds 24 rungs
1
Chase Brown CIN — Over 24.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 55 · main line 59.5 · edge +6pp · 3 books
91%
hit · blended
−1200
DraftKings
2
Omarion Hampton LAC — Over 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 20 · main line 34.5 · edge +11pp · 3 books
90%
hit · blended
−1000
Caesars
3
Ashton Jeanty LV — Over 19.5 Rushing Yds
LOST actual 9 · main line 50.5 · edge +3pp · 3 books
89%
hit · blended
−1400
FanDuel
4
Aaron Jones MIN — Over 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 22 · main line 27.5 · edge +14pp · 3 books
88%
hit · blended
−850
Caesars
5
Jordan Mason MIN — Over 19.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 20 · main line 49.5 · edge +1pp · 3 books
88%
hit · blended
−1250
Caesars
6
Rico Dowdle PIT — Over 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 56 · main line 31.5 · edge -2pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
87%
hit · blended
−1000
Caesars
7
James Cook BUF — Over 39.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 80 · main line 83.5 · edge -8pp · 3 books
87%
hit · blended
−1300
DraftKings
8
Quinshon Judkins CLE — Over 19.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 25 · main line 46.5 · edge -4pp · 3 books
86%
hit · blended
−950
Caesars
9
Derrick Henry BAL — Over 39.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 53 · main line 77.5 · edge -3pp · 3 books
86%
hit · blended
−1100
FanDuel
10
J.K. Dobbins DEN — Over 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 13 · main line 30.5 · edge +10pp · 4 books VOID RISK 73% to play
86%
hit · blended
−625
BetOnline.ag
11
Blake Corum LA — Over 19.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 73 · main line 46.5 · edge +2pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
86%
hit · blended
−810
DraftKings
12
Jaylen Warren PIT — Over 29.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 143 · main line 64.5 · edge -13pp · 3 books
86%
hit · blended
−1440
DraftKings
13
Jonathan Taylor IND — Over 19.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 23 · main line 48.5 · edge +16pp · 3 books
86%
hit · blended
−670
FanDuel
14
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Over 49.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 153 · main line 87.5 · edge -1pp · 5 books
86%
hit · blended
−850
FanDuel
15
Kenneth Walker III KC — Over 49.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 69 · main line 85.5 · edge +2pp · 5 books
85%
hit · blended
−750
FanDuel
16
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX — Over 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 41 · main line 31.5 · edge -10pp · 3 books VOID RISK 65% to play
85%
hit · blended
−950
Caesars
17
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — Over 24.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 82 · main line 59.5 · edge -27pp · 3 books
85%
hit · blended
−1450
FanDuel
18
Tony Pollard TEN — Over 29.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 117 · main line 65.5 · edge -16pp · 3 books
84%
hit · blended
−1250
Caesars
19
Saquon Barkley PHI — Over 19.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 30 · main line 52.5 · edge -16pp · 3 books VOID RISK 73% to play
84%
hit · blended
−1200
DraftKings
20
Bijan Robinson ATL — Over 39.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 76 · main line 80.5 · edge -20pp · 3 books
84%
hit · blended
−1250
Caesars
21
Kyren Williams LA — Over 29.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 56 · main line 60.5 · edge -12pp · 4 books
83%
hit · blended
−900
FanDuel
22
Bucky Irving TB — Over 39.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 170 · main line 70.5 · edge +0pp · 4 books
83%
hit · blended
−591
DraftKings
23
Jeremiyah Love ARI — Over 19.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 23 · main line 44.5 · edge -6pp · 4 books VOID RISK 73% to play
83%
hit · blended
−675
Caesars
24
Javonte Williams DAL — Over 39.5 Rushing Yds
WON actual 56 · main line 75.5 · edge -20pp · 4 books
82%
hit · blended
−1000
Caesars
Mon Nov 2 · 7 rungs · odds pulled 2026-11-02 22:20 UTC
Passing Yds 1 rungs
1
Caleb Williams CHI — Over 149.5 Passing Yds
main line 227.5 · edge +3pp · 4 books
87%
hit · blended
−900
FanDuel
Receptions 1 rungs
1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — Over 4.5 Receptions
main line 7.5 · edge -1pp · 4 books
83%
hit · blended
−586
DraftKings
Receiving Yds 3 rungs
1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — Over 49.5 Receiving Yds
main line 100.5 · edge -1pp · 4 books
87%
hit · blended
−1040
DraftKings
2
Rome Odunze CHI — Over 9.5 Receiving Yds
main line 40.5 · edge -8pp · 3 books
85%
hit · blended
−1200
FanDuel
3
Luther Burden III CHI — Over 19.5 Receiving Yds
main line 53.5 · edge -4pp · 3 books
84%
hit · blended
−770
DraftKings
Rushing Yds 2 rungs
1
D'Andre Swift CHI — Over 24.5 Rushing Yds
main line 60.5 · edge -5pp · 3 books
89%
hit · blended
−1620
DraftKings
2
Zach Charbonnet SEA — Over 9.5 Rushing Yds
main line 27.5 · edge +2pp · 3 books VOID RISK 65% to play
83%
hit · blended
−580
FanDuel
Parlays — place and forget
Pick a day, then a venue. Each slip is one line — tap it for the legs. "Our chance" is the number to trust.
tracking
How these slips are built · show
Up to four slips per game day, priced four ways — switch under each date: Books = the sportsbooks' best price, Poly = Polymarket, Kalshi = Kalshi, PP = PrizePicks (More/Less at their lines, flat payouts by slip size). SAFE takes only 80%+ legs whose own game log has hit that line all season and by a margin, however many qualify. MAIN stacks the legs most likely to hit until it pays at least even money; MID stacks further to +300 or so. TD slips (new 2026-10-11): the two or three likeliest scorers on a quarter-unit, and a four-leg long shot — anytime-TD legs are coin-flips, so even the short slip hits about one week in four. A leg's chance starts from the market's number plus a fifth of our disagreement; a leg whose own game log is clean (last 5, last 10, every game this season, by a margin) is lifted toward what such legs have actually hit — 93% against 80% said over the graded record — shrunk while the sample is small. Our chance is the product of each leg's probability, with a haircut on every extra leg from the same team because those rise and fall together; the fair price is what that chance is worth.
Season to dateSAFE 8/21 · +2.57uMAIN 6/14 · -1.10uMID 3/6 · +3.55uTD 5/14 · +1.15u2-PICK 4/7 · +2.50u3-PICK 1/3 · +0.50u4-PICK 0/3 · -0.75u5-PICK 0/3 · -0.30uFLEX 3 2/3 · +0.25uFLEX 4 1/3 · -0.38uFLEX 5 1/3 · -0.25uFLEX 6 2/3 · -0.22u
best price we found across the sportsbooks; shop the leg at yours
Touchdowns
TD+223our chance 24%2 legs · 0.25uWON +0.56u
TD ticketquarter-unit · the two or three likeliest scorers on the slate, priced half our model / half the market
+223
2 legs · stake 0.25u WON +0.56u
Josh JacobsGB
Anytime TD · actual 1
−137BetRivers
53% to score
53% to score
Chuba HubbardCAR
Anytime TD · actual 1
−115DraftKings
45% to score
45% to score
our chance 24%fair price +318book pays +223
Kalshi's own thresholds and asks — buy YES on the Over at the price shown
Safe & Main
safe−140our chance 60%3 legs · 1uWON +0.71u
safe ticketone unit · 80%+ legs that have hit their line all season, by a margin
−140
3 legs · stake 1u WON +0.71u
Tucker KraftGB · TE
Over 1.5 Receptions · actual 6 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 84% → 91%
−809Kalshi · 89¢
91% to hit
91% to hit
Bryce YoungCAR · QB
Over 0.5 Passing TDs · actual 1 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 9/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 82% → 82%
−456Kalshi · 82¢
82% to hit
82% to hit
Christian WatsonGB · WR
Over 2.5 Receptions · actual 8 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 9/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 81% → 88%
−400Kalshi · 80¢
81% to hit
81% to hit
our chance 60%fair price −151book pays −140
PrizePicks' own lines — More or Less at their number; Power Play pays 3x / 5x / 10x / 20x for 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 picks. Their lines sit on the market's median, so most picks are near 55%: a 2-pick at 3x needs one in three to cash. Flex plays pay on most-but-not-all, so they cash more often for less. Fantasy score is priced from our own ladders drawn jointly (catches, yards and touchdowns rise together) and is new — tracking until graded. The chance shown is ours.
Power Play
2-pick power play+200our chance 50%2 legs · 0.5uWON +1.00u
2-pick power play tickethalf a unit · pays 3x · our two likeliest More/Less picks at PrizePicks' own lines, one per team
+200
2 legs · stake 0.5u WON +1.00u
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR
Over 42.5 Receiving Yds · actual 58 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
78% to hit
78% to hit
Savion WilliamsGB · WR
Under 6.5 Fantasy Score · actual 3.3 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 0/2
LessPrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
our chance 50%fair price +101book pays +200
Their standard lines, Goblins, Demons and fantasy lines with our chance on each are on the 🧩 PrizePicks board.
best price we found across the sportsbooks; shop the leg at yours
Safe & Main
safe+264our chance 33%10 legs · 1uLOST -1.00u
safe ticketone unit · 80%+ legs that have hit their line all season, by a margin
+264
10 legs · stake 1u LOST -1.00u
Denzel BostonCLE · WR
Over 14.5 Receiving Yds · actual 37 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 7/7 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 86% → 91%
−840DraftKings
91% to hit
91% to hit
Josh DownsIND · WR
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 23 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 86% → 91%
−670FanDuel
91% to hit
91% to hit
Stefon DiggsWAS · WR
Over 14.5 Receiving Yds · actual 38 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 5/5 · clean log: 85% → 91%
−740DraftKings
91% to hit
91% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 9.5 Rushing Yds · actual 20 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 90% → 90%
−1000Caesars
90% to hit
90% to hit
Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR
Over 1.5 Receptions · actual 3 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 83% → 90%
−715BetRivers
90% to hit
90% to hit
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 1.5 Receptions · actual 8 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 83% → 90%
−750FanDuel
90% to hit
90% to hit
Jameson WilliamsDET · WR
Over 1.5 Receptions · actual 4 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 82% → 89%
−800Caesars
89% to hit
89% to hit
Aaron JonesMIN · RB
Over 9.5 Rushing Yds · actual 22 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 88% → 89%
−850Caesars
89% to hit
89% to hit
Tre TuckerLV · WR
Over 19.5 Receiving Yds · actual 0 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 82% → 88%
−670DraftKings
88% to hit
88% to hit
Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 35 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 80% → 85%
−468DraftKings
85% to hit
85% to hit
our chance 33%fair price +207book pays +264
Touchdowns
TD+245our chance 26%3 legs · 0.25uLOST -0.25u
TD ticketquarter-unit · the two or three likeliest scorers on the slate, priced half our model / half the market
+245
3 legs · stake 0.25u LOST -0.25u
Javonte WilliamsDAL
Anytime TD · actual 0
−235Caesars
65% to score
65% to score
Jahmyr GibbsDET
Anytime TD · actual 1
−235BetMGM
63% to score
63% to score
Chase BrownCIN
Anytime TD · actual 0
−143BetRivers
63% to score
63% to score
our chance 26%fair price +291book pays +245
Polymarket's own thresholds and asks — buy the Over at the price shown; the slip's price is the combo of its legs
Safe & Main
safe+288our chance 35%8 legs · 1uLOST -1.00u
safe ticketone unit · 80%+ legs that have hit their line all season, by a margin
+288
8 legs · stake 1u LOST -1.00u
Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB
Over 0.5 Receptions · actual 2 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 90% → 96%
−900Polymarket · 90¢
96% to hit
96% to hit
Greg DulcichMIA · TE
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 43 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 5/5 · clean log: 82% → 87%
−567Polymarket · 85¢
87% to hit
87% to hit
Jared GoffDET · QB
Over 0.5 Passing TDs · actual 1 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 87% → 87%
−669Polymarket · 87¢
87% to hit
87% to hit
Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 35 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 81% → 86%
−400Polymarket · 80¢
86% to hit
86% to hit
Brock BowersLV · TE
Over 3.5 Receptions · actual 7 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 5/5 · clean log: 79% → 85%
−525Polymarket · 84¢
85% to hit
85% to hit
Drew SampleCIN · TE
Over 0.5 Receptions · actual 0 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 4/4 · clean log: 79% → 85%
−488Polymarket · 83¢
85% to hit
85% to hit
Dawson KnoxBUF · TE
Over 0.5 Receptions · actual 1 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 77% → 84%
−355Polymarket · 78¢
84% to hit
84% to hit
Zay FlowersBAL · WR
Over 39.5 Receiving Yds · actual 0 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 9/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 86% → 92%
−809Polymarket · 89¢
92% to hit
92% to hit
our chance 35%fair price +184book pays +288
main+109our chance 60%4 legs · 1uLOST -1.00u
main ticketone unit · the surest legs we can find
+109
4 legs · stake 1u LOST -1.00u
Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB
Over 0.5 Receptions · actual 2 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 90% → 96%
−900Polymarket · 90¢
96% to hit
96% to hit
Ashton JeantyLV · RB
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 64 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 9/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 83% → 89%
−488Polymarket · 83¢
89% to hit
89% to hit
Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 35 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 81% → 86%
−400Polymarket · 80¢
86% to hit
86% to hit
Ted Hurst IIITB · WR
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 0
−400Polymarket · 80¢
81% to hit
81% to hit
our chance 60%fair price −149book pays +109
Mid
mid+301our chance 25%8 legs · 0.5uLOST -0.50u
mid tickethalf a unit · the same legs, stacked further
+301
8 legs · stake 0.5u LOST -0.50u
Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB
Over 0.5 Receptions · actual 2 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 90% → 96%
−900Polymarket · 90¢
96% to hit
96% to hit
Ashton JeantyLV · RB
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 64 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 9/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 83% → 89%
−488Polymarket · 83¢
89% to hit
89% to hit
Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 35 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 81% → 86%
−400Polymarket · 80¢
86% to hit
86% to hit
Ted Hurst IIITB · WR
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 0
−400Polymarket · 80¢
81% to hit
81% to hit
Jared GoffDET · QB
Over 0.5 Passing TDs · actual 1 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 87% → 87%
−669Polymarket · 87¢
87% to hit
87% to hit
Bucky IrvingTB · RB
Over 39.5 Rushing Yds · actual 170 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 9/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 82% → 83%
−456Polymarket · 82¢
76% to hit
76% to hit
Kirk CousinsLV · QB
Over 0.5 Passing TDs · actual 3 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 84% → 84%
−488Polymarket · 83¢
77% to hit
77% to hit
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 154
−733Polymarket · 88¢
81% to hit
81% to hit
our chance 25%fair price +303book pays +301
Touchdowns
TD+273our chance 23%3 legs · 0.25uLOST -0.25u
TD ticketquarter-unit · the two or three likeliest scorers on the slate, priced half our model / half the market
+273
3 legs · stake 0.25u LOST -0.25u
Javonte WilliamsDAL
Anytime TD · actual 0
−203Polymarket · 67¢
63% to score
63% to score
Jahmyr GibbsDET
Anytime TD · actual 1
−223Polymarket · 69¢
61% to score
61% to score
Chase BrownCIN
Anytime TD · actual 0
−138Polymarket · 58¢
60% to score
60% to score
our chance 23%fair price +333book pays +273
Kalshi's own thresholds and asks — buy YES on the Over at the price shown
Safe & Main
safe+294our chance 38%10 legs · 1uLOST -1.00u
safe ticketone unit · 80%+ legs that have hit their line all season, by a margin
+294
10 legs · stake 1u LOST -1.00u
Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB
Over 1.5 Receptions · actual 2 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 88% → 95%
−900Kalshi · 90¢
95% to hit
95% to hit
Puka NacuaLA · WR
Over 4.5 Receptions · actual 11 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 5/5 · clean log: 87% → 94%
−733Kalshi · 88¢
94% to hit
94% to hit
Tre TuckerLV · WR
Over 1.5 Receptions · actual 0 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 86% → 93%
−669Kalshi · 87¢
93% to hit
93% to hit
Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 38 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 88% → 93%
−733Kalshi · 88¢
93% to hit
93% to hit
Stefon DiggsWAS · WR
Over 14.5 Receiving Yds · actual 38 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 5/5 · clean log: 87% → 93%
−669Kalshi · 87¢
93% to hit
93% to hit
Denzel BostonCLE · WR
Over 14.5 Receiving Yds · actual 37 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 7/7 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 87% → 92%
−614Kalshi · 86¢
92% to hit
92% to hit
Josh DownsIND · WR
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 23 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 86% → 92%
−525Kalshi · 84¢
92% to hit
92% to hit
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 1.5 Receptions · actual 8 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 84% → 91%
−614Kalshi · 86¢
91% to hit
91% to hit
Tony PollardTEN · RB
Over 29.5 Rushing Yds · actual 117 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 85% → 86%
−809Kalshi · 89¢
86% to hit
86% to hit
Jared GoffDET · QB
Over 0.5 Passing TDs · actual 1 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 87% → 87%
−669Kalshi · 87¢
80% to hit
80% to hit
our chance 38%fair price +163book pays +294
main+152our chance 59%6 legs · 1uLOST -1.00u
main ticketone unit · the surest legs we can find
+152
6 legs · stake 1u LOST -1.00u
Josh DownsIND · WR
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 23 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 86% → 92%
−525Kalshi · 84¢
92% to hit
92% to hit
Denzel BostonCLE · WR
Over 14.5 Receiving Yds · actual 37 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 7/7 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 87% → 92%
−614Kalshi · 86¢
92% to hit
92% to hit
Stefon DiggsWAS · WR
Over 14.5 Receiving Yds · actual 38 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 5/5 · clean log: 87% → 93%
−669Kalshi · 87¢
93% to hit
93% to hit
Tre TuckerLV · WR
Over 14.5 Receiving Yds · actual 0 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 87% → 92%
−614Kalshi · 86¢
92% to hit
92% to hit
Travis KelceKC · TE
Over 1.5 Receptions · actual 5 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 9/10 · this season 6/6 · clean log: 93% → 96%
−1329Kalshi · 93¢
96% to hit
96% to hit
Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE
Over 9.5 Receiving Yds · actual 35 · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 80% → 86%
−376Kalshi · 79¢
86% to hit
86% to hit
our chance 59%fair price −146book pays +152
PrizePicks' own lines — More or Less at their number; Power Play pays 3x / 5x / 10x / 20x for 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 picks. Their lines sit on the market's median, so most picks are near 55%: a 2-pick at 3x needs one in three to cash. Flex plays pay on most-but-not-all, so they cash more often for less. Fantasy score is priced from our own ladders drawn jointly (catches, yards and touchdowns rise together) and is new — tracking until graded. The chance shown is ours.
Power Play
2-pick power play+200our chance 40%2 legs · 0.5uLOST -0.50u
2-pick power play tickethalf a unit · pays 3x · our two likeliest More/Less picks at PrizePicks' own lines, one per team
+200
2 legs · stake 0.5u LOST -0.50u
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 15.5 Fantasy Score · actual 18.1 · last 5 1/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 2/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 7 Fantasy Score · actual 4.7 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 8/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
our chance 40%fair price +152book pays +200
3-pick power play+400our chance 25%3 legs · 0.25uLOST -0.25u
3-pick power play ticketquarter-unit · pays 5x · the same picks plus the next likeliest
+400
3 legs · stake 0.25u LOST -0.25u
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 15.5 Fantasy Score · actual 18.1 · last 5 1/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 2/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 7 Fantasy Score · actual 4.7 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 8/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Efton Chism IIINE · WR
Under 6.5 Fantasy Score · actual 8.7
LessPrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
our chance 25%fair price +301book pays +400
4-pick power play+900our chance 15%4 legs · 0.25uLOST -0.25u
4-pick power play ticketquarter-unit · pays 10x · four picks, all must hit
+900
4 legs · stake 0.25u LOST -0.25u
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 15.5 Fantasy Score · actual 18.1 · last 5 1/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 2/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 7 Fantasy Score · actual 4.7 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 8/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Efton Chism IIINE · WR
Under 6.5 Fantasy Score · actual 8.7
LessPrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR
Under 5.5 Receptions · actual 6 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 5/7
LessPrizePicks
62% to hit
62% to hit
our chance 15%fair price +550book pays +900
5-pick power play+1900our chance 9%5 legs · 0.1uLOST -0.10u
5-pick power play ticketa tenth of a unit · pays 20x · five picks, all must hit
+1900
5 legs · stake 0.1u LOST -0.10u
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 15.5 Fantasy Score · actual 18.1 · last 5 1/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 2/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 7 Fantasy Score · actual 4.7 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 8/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Efton Chism IIINE · WR
Under 6.5 Fantasy Score · actual 8.7
LessPrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR
Under 5.5 Receptions · actual 6 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 5/7
LessPrizePicks
62% to hit
62% to hit
Drake LondonATL · WR
Under 6 Receptions · actual 1 · last 5 2/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 4/7
LessPrizePicks
60% to hit
60% to hit
our chance 9%fair price +980book pays +1900
Flex Play
3-pick flex+125all hit 25% · pays 69%3 legs · 0.5uLOST -0.50u
3-pick flex tickethalf a unit · 3 of 3 pays 2.25x, 2 of 3 pays 1.25x
+125
3 legs · stake 0.5u LOST -0.50u
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 15.5 Fantasy Score · actual 18.1 · last 5 1/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 2/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 7 Fantasy Score · actual 4.7 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 8/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Efton Chism IIINE · WR
Under 6.5 Fantasy Score · actual 8.7
LessPrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
all hit 25%any payout 69%fair price +301book pays +125
4-pick flex+400all hit 15% · pays 52%4 legs · 0.25uLOST -0.25u
4-pick flex ticketquarter-unit · 4 of 4 pays 5x, 3 of 4 pays 1.5x
+400
4 legs · stake 0.25u LOST -0.25u
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 15.5 Fantasy Score · actual 18.1 · last 5 1/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 2/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 7 Fantasy Score · actual 4.7 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 8/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Efton Chism IIINE · WR
Under 6.5 Fantasy Score · actual 8.7
LessPrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR
Under 5.5 Receptions · actual 6 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 5/7
LessPrizePicks
62% to hit
62% to hit
all hit 15%any payout 52%fair price +550book pays +400
5-pick flex+900all hit 9% · pays 72%5 legs · 0.25uLOST -0.25u
5-pick flex ticketquarter-unit · 5 of 5 pays 10x, 4 of 5 pays 2x, 3 of 5 pays 0.4x
+900
5 legs · stake 0.25u LOST -0.25u
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 15.5 Fantasy Score · actual 18.1 · last 5 1/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 2/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 7 Fantasy Score · actual 4.7 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 8/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Efton Chism IIINE · WR
Under 6.5 Fantasy Score · actual 8.7
LessPrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR
Under 5.5 Receptions · actual 6 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 5/7
LessPrizePicks
62% to hit
62% to hit
Drake LondonATL · WR
Under 6 Receptions · actual 1 · last 5 2/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 4/7
LessPrizePicks
60% to hit
60% to hit
all hit 9%any payout 72%fair price +980book pays +900
6-pick flex+2400all hit 5% · pays 58%6 legs · 0.1uLOST -0.10u
6-pick flex ticketa tenth of a unit · 6 of 6 pays 25x, 5 of 6 pays 2x, 4 of 6 pays 0.4x
+2400
6 legs · stake 0.1u LOST -0.10u
Chase BrownCIN · RB
Over 15.5 Fantasy Score · actual 18.1 · last 5 1/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 2/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Omarion HamptonLAC · RB
Over 7 Fantasy Score · actual 4.7 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 8/10 · this season 4/6
MorePrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Efton Chism IIINE · WR
Under 6.5 Fantasy Score · actual 8.7
LessPrizePicks
63% to hit
63% to hit
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR
Under 5.5 Receptions · actual 6 · last 5 3/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 5/7
LessPrizePicks
62% to hit
62% to hit
Drake LondonATL · WR
Under 6 Receptions · actual 1 · last 5 2/5 · last 10 7/10 · this season 4/7
LessPrizePicks
60% to hit
60% to hit
Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR
Under 4.5 Receptions · actual 0
LessPrizePicks
59% to hit
59% to hit
all hit 5%any payout 58%fair price +1746book pays +2400
Their standard lines, Goblins, Demons and fantasy lines with our chance on each are on the 🧩 PrizePicks board.
best price we found across the sportsbooks; shop the leg at yours
Safe & Main
safe−192our chance 60%3 legs · 1u
safe ticketone unit · 80%+ legs that have hit their line all season, by a margin
−192
3 legs · stake 1u
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR
Over 4.5 Receptions · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 83% → 89%
−586DraftKings
89% to hit
89% to hit
D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB
Over 29.5 Rushing Yds · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 84% → 86%
−890DraftKings
86% to hit
86% to hit
Rome OdunzeCHI · WR
Over 1.5 Receptions · last 5 5/5 · last 10 10/10 · this season 7/7 · clean log: 78% → 84%
−595DraftKings
78% to hit
78% to hit
our chance 60%fair price −147book pays −192
Touchdowns
TD+265our chance 30%2 legs · 0.25u
TD ticketquarter-unit · the two or three likeliest scorers on the slate, priced half our model / half the market
+265
2 legs · stake 0.25u
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA
Anytime TD
−105FanDuel
56% to score
56% to score
D'Andre SwiftCHI
Anytime TD
−115DraftKings
54% to score
54% to score
our chance 30%fair price +234book pays +265
PrizePicks' own lines — More or Less at their number; Power Play pays 3x / 5x / 10x / 20x for 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 picks. Their lines sit on the market's median, so most picks are near 55%: a 2-pick at 3x needs one in three to cash. Flex plays pay on most-but-not-all, so they cash more often for less. Fantasy score is priced from our own ladders drawn jointly (catches, yards and touchdowns rise together) and is new — tracking until graded. The chance shown is ours.
Power Play
2-pick power play+200our chance 35%2 legs · 0.5u
2-pick power play tickethalf a unit · pays 3x · our two likeliest More/Less picks at PrizePicks' own lines, one per team
+200
2 legs · stake 0.5u
Colston LovelandCHI · TE
Under 4 Receptions · last 5 1/5 · last 10 4/10 · this season 3/7
LessPrizePicks
59% to hit
59% to hit
AJ BarnerSEA · TE
Under 8 Fantasy Score · last 5 3/5 · last 10 6/10 · this season 5/7
LessPrizePicks
58% to hit
58% to hit
our chance 35%fair price +188book pays +200
Their standard lines, Goblins, Demons and fantasy lines with our chance on each are on the 🧩 PrizePicks board.
A leg whose player does not take a snap is voided and the slip re-priced on the remaining legs, as the books do. Prices are the best we found at pull time; shop the legs at your book before placing.
PrizePicks board — their lines, our chance
Every PrizePicks line we can price, ranked by our chance of the pick. Standard lines are More or Less at their number; a Goblin is a lower line (the app pays less), a Demon a higher one (it pays more); fantasy score is priced from our own ladders drawn together. The slips built from these are on the 🎟 Parlays tab.
tracking
season, every board line gradedStandard 195–183 (52% · said 53%)Fantasy 125–131 (49% · said 54%)Goblins 92–34 (73% · said 81%)Demons 77–144 (35% · said 42%)
Every line on this board is graded against the box score once its game is final — shown or not, slipped or not. Read each chip as hit rate against the chance we stated: a Goblin we call 80% should land near 80%. The record starts 2026-10-19; earlier boards were not kept.
this dayStandard 9–8 (53% · said 55%)Fantasy 6–4 (60% · said 54%)Goblins 9–2 (82% · said 78%)Demons 15–25 (38% · said 39%)
Standard lines More or Less at PrizePicks' number, ranked by our chance · 17 lines
1
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — More 42.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
78%
chance of More · ours
2
Savion Williams GB — Less 25.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 5 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
59%
chance of Less · ours
3
Savion Williams GB — Less 2.5 Receptions
WON · actual 1 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
58%
chance of Less · ours
4
Tucker Kraft GB — Less 43.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
55%
chance of Less · ours
5
Mitchell Evans CAR — Less 8.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 22 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
55%
chance of Less · ours
6
Josh Jacobs GB — Less 61.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 39 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
55%
chance of Less · ours
7
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Less 16.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 38 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
54%
chance of Less · ours
8
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Less 67.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 81 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
54%
chance of Less · ours
9
Chuba Hubbard CAR — Less 2.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 7 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
54%
chance of Less · ours
10
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — More 5 Receptions
WON · actual 6 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
52%
chance of More · ours
11
Josh Jacobs GB — Less 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 13 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
52%
chance of Less · ours
12
Jalen Coker CAR — More 5 Receptions
LOST · actual 2 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
51%
chance of More · ours
5 more · show
13
Jalen Coker CAR — Less 62.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 36 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
51%
chance of Less · ours
14
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — Less 71.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
51%
chance of Less · ours
15
Tommy Tremble CAR — Less 15.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 19 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
50%
chance of Less · ours
16
Josh Jacobs GB — Less 2.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 6 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
50%
chance of Less · ours
17
Christian Watson GB — More 70.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 113 Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
50%
chance of More · ours
Fantasy score priced from our ladders — catches, yards and touchdowns drawn together · new, tracking · 10 lines
1
Savion Williams GB — Less 6.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 3.3 our median 4.8 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
63%
chance of Less · ours
2
Tucker Kraft GB — Less 11 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 17.3 our median 9.4 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
60%
chance of Less · ours
3
Tommy Tremble CAR — Less 5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 2.9 our median 4.2 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
56%
chance of Less · ours
4
Christian Watson GB — More 14 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 19.3 our median 15 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
55%
chance of More · ours
5
Jordan Love GB — Less 18 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 23.52 our median 17.5 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
53%
chance of Less · ours
6
Jalen Coker CAR — More 13 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 11.6 our median 13.5 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
52%
chance of More · ours
7
Chuba Hubbard CAR — More 14 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 24.9 our median 14.3 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
52%
chance of More · ours
8
Josh Jacobs GB — Less 15 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 23.2 our median 14.8 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
51%
chance of Less · ours
9
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — Less 14.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 11.8 our median 14.3 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
51%
chance of Less · ours
10
Bryce Young CAR — Less 17 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 12.36 our median 16.9 · Carolina Panthers@Green Bay Packers
50%
chance of Less · ours
👺 Goblins PrizePicks' LOWER lines — easier to clear, the app pays less for them · 11 lines · ranked by our chance of More
1
Matthew Golden GB — More 2.5 Receptions
WON · actual 7 standard line 4.5 · 2 catches under it
83%
chance of More · ours
2
Jalen Coker CAR — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 36 standard line 62.5 · 33 yards under it
82%
chance of More · ours
3
Matthew Golden GB — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 79 standard line 58.5 · 29 yards under it
82%
chance of More · ours
4
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 standard line 71.5 · 32 yards under it
81%
chance of More · ours
5
Christian Watson GB — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 113 standard line 70.5 · 31 yards under it
80%
chance of More · ours
6
Tucker Kraft GB — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 53 standard line 43.5 · 24 yards under it
79%
chance of More · ours
7
Chuba Hubbard CAR — More 39.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 81 standard line 67.5 · 28 yards under it
77%
chance of More · ours
8
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — More 3.5 Receptions
WON · actual 6 standard line 5 · 1.5 catches under it
76%
chance of More · ours
9
Darren Waller CAR — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 11 standard line 20.5 · 11 yards under it
73%
chance of More · ours
10
Jalen Coker CAR — More 3.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 2 standard line 5 · 1.5 catches under it
73%
chance of More · ours
1 more goblins · show
11
Jalen Coker CAR — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 36 standard line 62.5 · 23 yards under it
73%
chance of More · ours
😈 Demons PrizePicks' HIGHER lines — harder to clear, the app pays more for them · 40 lines · ranked by our chance of More
1
Christian Watson GB — More 75.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 113 standard line 70.5 · 5 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
2
Jalen Coker CAR — More 66.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 36 standard line 62.5 · 4 yards over it
45%
chance of More · ours
3
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — More 5.5 Receptions
WON · actual 6 standard line 5 · 0.5 catches over it
45%
chance of More · ours
4
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — More 77.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 58 standard line 71.5 · 6 yards over it
44%
chance of More · ours
5
Matthew Golden GB — More 63.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 79 standard line 58.5 · 5 yards over it
44%
chance of More · ours
6
Chuba Hubbard CAR — More 69.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 81 standard line 67.5 · 2 yards over it
44%
chance of More · ours
7
Josh Jacobs GB — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 13 standard line 17.5 · 2 yards over it
44%
chance of More · ours
8
Jalen Coker CAR — More 5.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 2 standard line 5 · 0.5 catches over it
44%
chance of More · ours
9
Tetairoa McMillan CAR — More 78.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 58 standard line 71.5 · 7 yards over it
44%
chance of More · ours
10
Josh Jacobs GB — More 63.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 39 standard line 61.5 · 2 yards over it
43%
chance of More · ours
30 more demons · show
11
Jalen Coker CAR — More 69.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 36 standard line 62.5 · 7 yards over it
42%
chance of More · ours
12
Christian Watson GB — More 79.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 113 standard line 70.5 · 9 yards over it
42%
chance of More · ours
13
Mitchell Evans CAR — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 22 standard line 8.5 · 1 yards over it
42%
chance of More · ours
14
Tommy Tremble CAR — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 19 standard line 15.5 · 4 yards over it
41%
chance of More · ours
15
John Metchie III CAR — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 14 standard line 16.5 · 3 yards over it
41%
chance of More · ours
16
Darren Waller CAR — More 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 11 standard line 20.5 · 4 yards over it
41%
chance of More · ours
17
Chuba Hubbard CAR — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 38 standard line 16.5 · 3 yards over it
41%
chance of More · ours
18
Tucker Kraft GB — More 49.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 53 standard line 43.5 · 6 yards over it
40%
chance of More · ours
19
Savion Williams GB — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 5 standard line 25.5 · 4 yards over it
39%
chance of More · ours
20
Chuba Hubbard CAR — More 76.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 81 standard line 67.5 · 9 yards over it
39%
chance of More · ours
21
Matthew Golden GB — More 69.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 79 standard line 58.5 · 11 yards over it
39%
chance of More · ours
22
Tucker Kraft GB — More 52.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 53 standard line 43.5 · 9 yards over it
38%
chance of More · ours
23
Josh Jacobs GB — More 69.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 39 standard line 61.5 · 8 yards over it
38%
chance of More · ours
24
Jordan Love GB — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 5.5 · 4 yards over it
38%
chance of More · ours
25
Brycen Tremayne CAR — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 11 standard line 5.5 · 4 yards over it
37%
chance of More · ours
26
Savion Williams GB — More 3.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 1 standard line 2.5 · 1 catches over it
37%
chance of More · ours
27
Savion Williams GB — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 5 standard line 25.5 · 14 yards over it
36%
chance of More · ours
28
MarShawn Lloyd GB — More 29.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 7 standard line 17.5 · 12 yards over it
36%
chance of More · ours
29
Bryce Young CAR — More 14.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 9.5 · 5 yards over it
36%
chance of More · ours
30
Trevor Etienne CAR — More 14.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 1 standard line 8.5 · 6 yards over it
35%
chance of More · ours
31
Savion Williams GB — More 4.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 1 standard line 2.5 · 2 catches over it
35%
chance of More · ours
32
Matthew Golden GB — More 5.5 Receptions
WON · actual 7 standard line 4.5 · 1 catches over it
35%
chance of More · ours
33
Darren Waller CAR — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 11 standard line 20.5 · 9 yards over it
34%
chance of More · ours
34
Josh Jacobs GB — More 3.5 Receptions
WON · actual 6 standard line 2.5 · 1 catches over it
34%
chance of More · ours
35
Jordan Love GB — More 19.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 5.5 · 14 yards over it
34%
chance of More · ours
36
MarShawn Lloyd GB — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 9 standard line 4.5 · 5 yards over it
33%
chance of More · ours
37
Chuba Hubbard CAR — More 3.5 Receptions
WON · actual 7 standard line 2.5 · 1 catches over it
33%
chance of More · ours
38
Bo Melton GB — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 4.5 · 5 yards over it
32%
chance of More · ours
39
Bryce Young CAR — More 19.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 9.5 · 10 yards over it
30%
chance of More · ours
40
Brycen Tremayne CAR — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 11 standard line 5.5 · 14 yards over it
30%
chance of More · ours
Goblin and Demon payouts are set per pick in the PrizePicks app and are not in our feed, so these are listed with our chance only and never placed on a slip. A Goblin is worth it when our chance beats what the reduced payout needs; a Demon when the boost pays for the lower chance.
4 lines we do not price yet — rush + rec yards · show
Chuba Hubbard — rush + rec yds 89.5
CAR@GB
Josh Jacobs — rush + rec yds 81.5
CAR@GB
Savion Williams — rush + rec yds 30.5
CAR@GB
MarShawn Lloyd — rush + rec yds 26.5
CAR@GB
this dayStandard 88–84 (51% · said 53%)Fantasy 50–67 (43% · said 54%)Goblins 29–11 (72% · said 84%)Demons 10–29 (26% · said 47%)
Standard lines More or Less at PrizePicks' number, ranked by our chance · 174 lines
1
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN — Less 5.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 6 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
62%
chance of Less · ours
2
Drake London ATL — Less 6 Receptions
WON · actual 1 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
60%
chance of Less · ours
3
Efton Chism III NE — Less 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 37 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
59%
chance of Less · ours
4
Omarion Hampton LAC — More 31.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 20 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
59%
chance of More · ours
5
Efton Chism III NE — Less 2.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 5 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
59%
chance of Less · ours
6
Chris Godwin Jr. TB — Less 4.5 Receptions
WON · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
59%
chance of Less · ours
7
Isaiah Williams NYJ — More 0.5 Receptions
WON · actual 1 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
58%
chance of More · ours
8
Drake London ATL — Less 79.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 8 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
58%
chance of Less · ours
9
Aaron Jones MIN — More 27.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 22 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
58%
chance of More · ours
10
Mason Taylor NYJ — Less 22.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 19 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
58%
chance of Less · ours
11
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN — Less 48.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 57 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
58%
chance of Less · ours
12
DeMario Douglas NE — Less 41.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 76 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
58%
chance of Less · ours
162 more · show
13
Rashee Rice KC — Less 4.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 7 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
58%
chance of Less · ours
14
Brenton Strange JAX — Less 41.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 55 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
57%
chance of Less · ours
15
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Less 7 Receptions
LOST · actual 11 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
57%
chance of Less · ours
16
Adonai Mitchell NYJ — More 25.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 142 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
57%
chance of More · ours
17
Makai Lemon PHI — Less 43.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 57 Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
57%
chance of Less · ours
18
Darnell Washington PIT — Less 21.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 94 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
57%
chance of Less · ours
19
Makai Lemon PHI — Less 4.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 6 Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
57%
chance of Less · ours
20
DeMario Douglas NE — Less 3.5 Receptions
WON · actual 3 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
57%
chance of Less · ours
21
Germie Bernard PIT — Less 4.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 5 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
56%
chance of Less · ours
22
Kyren Williams LA — Less 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 3 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
56%
chance of Less · ours
23
Aaron Jones MIN — Less 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 18 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
56%
chance of Less · ours
24
Chris Godwin Jr. TB — Less 41.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
56%
chance of Less · ours
25
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Less 83.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 141 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
56%
chance of Less · ours
26
Rashod Bateman BAL — More 2 Receptions
LOST · actual 1 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
56%
chance of More · ours
27
Tyler Allgeier ARI — More 13.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 147 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
56%
chance of More · ours
28
Brenton Strange JAX — Less 4 Receptions
WON · actual 2 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
56%
chance of Less · ours
29
Chase Brown CIN — More 57.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 55 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
56%
chance of More · ours
30
Rashee Rice KC — Less 50.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
56%
chance of Less · ours
31
Josh Downs IND — More 3 Receptions
WON · actual 4 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
56%
chance of More · ours
32
Isaiah Williams NYJ — More 0.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 18 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
56%
chance of More · ours
33
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — Less 59.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 82 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
55%
chance of Less · ours
34
Jauan Jennings MIN — More 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 11 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
55%
chance of More · ours
35
Brock Bowers LV — Less 69.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 92 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
55%
chance of Less · ours
36
Hunter Henry NE — Less 45.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
55%
chance of Less · ours
37
Noah Gray KC — Less 14.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 15 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
55%
chance of Less · ours
38
Greg Dulcich MIA — Less 28.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 43 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
55%
chance of Less · ours
39
Bhayshul Tuten JAX — Less 14.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 55 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
55%
chance of Less · ours
40
Javonte Williams DAL — Less 76.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 56 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
55%
chance of Less · ours
41
Mark Andrews BAL — More 27.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 14 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
55%
chance of More · ours
42
Noah Gray KC — Less 1.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 2 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
55%
chance of Less · ours
43
Rashod Bateman BAL — More 25.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 22 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
55%
chance of More · ours
44
Keenan Allen IND — Less 37.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 67 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
55%
chance of Less · ours
45
Evan Engram DEN — Less 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
55%
chance of Less · ours
46
Josh Downs IND — More 32.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 23 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
55%
chance of More · ours
47
Dyami Brown WAS — More 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
54%
chance of More · ours
48
Brock Bowers LV — Less 6 Receptions
LOST · actual 7 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
54%
chance of Less · ours
49
Bijan Robinson ATL — Less 80.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 76 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
54%
chance of Less · ours
50
Jameson Williams DET — Less 51.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 70 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
54%
chance of Less · ours
51
Courtland Sutton DEN — Less 38.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 53 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
54%
chance of Less · ours
52
Jordan Mason MIN — Less 3.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 clean log · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
54%
chance of Less · ours
53
Jonathan Taylor IND — More 50.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 23 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
54%
chance of More · ours
54
Evan Engram DEN — Less 2.5 Receptions
WON · actual 0 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
54%
chance of Less · ours
55
Kenneth Walker III KC — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 15 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
54%
chance of More · ours
56
Adam Trautman DEN — Less 3.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 30 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
54%
chance of Less · ours
57
Jaylen Warren PIT — Less 65.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 143 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
54%
chance of Less · ours
58
Jauan Jennings MIN — More 1.5 Receptions
WON · actual 2 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
54%
chance of More · ours
59
Konata Mumpfield LA — Less 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
54%
chance of Less · ours
60
Travis Kelce KC — More 4 Receptions
WON · actual 5 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
54%
chance of More · ours
61
Ryan Flournoy DAL — Less 3.5 Receptions
WON · actual 3 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
54%
chance of Less · ours
62
T.J. Hockenson MIN — Less 4.5 Receptions
WON · actual 4 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
54%
chance of Less · ours
63
James Cook BUF — More 1.5 Receptions
WON · actual 2 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
54%
chance of More · ours
64
Germie Bernard PIT — Less 43.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
54%
chance of Less · ours
65
Reggie Virgil ARI — Less 11.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
54%
chance of Less · ours
66
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL — Less 31.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 13 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
53%
chance of Less · ours
67
Tony Pollard TEN — Less 12.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
53%
chance of Less · ours
68
Charlie Kolar LAC — Less 17.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 20 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
53%
chance of Less · ours
69
Tony Pollard TEN — Less 64.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 117 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
53%
chance of Less · ours
70
DK Metcalf PIT — More 4 Receptions
LOST · actual 1 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
53%
chance of More · ours
71
Tre Harris LAC — Less 34.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 31 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
53%
chance of Less · ours
72
Kyren Williams LA — Less 60.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 56 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
53%
chance of Less · ours
73
Puka Nacua LA — Less 8 Receptions
LOST · actual 11 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
53%
chance of Less · ours
74
CeeDee Lamb DAL — Less 84.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
53%
chance of Less · ours
75
Chase Brown CIN — Less 3.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 8 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
53%
chance of Less · ours
76
Jerry Jeudy CLE — Less 21.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
53%
chance of Less · ours
77
Tyler Warren IND — Less 4.5 Receptions
WON · actual 4 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
53%
chance of Less · ours
78
CeeDee Lamb DAL — Less 6.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 7 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
53%
chance of Less · ours
79
Quinshon Judkins CLE — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 24 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
53%
chance of More · ours
80
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ — Less 41.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
53%
chance of Less · ours
81
James Cook BUF — Less 83.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 80 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
53%
chance of Less · ours
82
Bhayshul Tuten JAX — Less 67.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 104 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
53%
chance of Less · ours
83
Justin Jefferson MIN — Less 6 Receptions
WON · actual 5 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
53%
chance of Less · ours
84
Garrett Wilson NYJ — Less 63.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 83 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
53%
chance of Less · ours
85
Tee Higgins CIN — Less 5 Receptions
LOST · actual 10 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
53%
chance of Less · ours
86
Zay Flowers BAL — Less 88.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
53%
chance of Less · ours
87
Jaylen Warren PIT — Less 22.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
53%
chance of Less · ours
88
Laquon Treadwell IND — Less 23.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 18 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
53%
chance of Less · ours
89
Drew Sample CIN — Less 8.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
53%
chance of Less · ours
90
Jordan Addison MIN — Less 38.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 66 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
53%
chance of Less · ours
91
Parker Washington JAX — More 67.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 16 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
53%
chance of More · ours
92
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — Less 23.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 8 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
53%
chance of Less · ours
93
Pat Freiermuth PIT — Less 3 Receptions
WON · actual 2 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
53%
chance of Less · ours
94
Justin Jefferson MIN — Less 76.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 33 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
53%
chance of Less · ours
95
Derrick Henry BAL — More 6.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 7 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
53%
chance of More · ours
96
Kendrick Bourne ARI — Less 38.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 29 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
53%
chance of Less · ours
97
Ashton Jeanty LV — More 49.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 9 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
52%
chance of More · ours
98
Quentin Johnston LAC — Less 33.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 37 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
52%
chance of Less · ours
99
T.J. Hockenson MIN — Less 42.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 58 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
52%
chance of Less · ours
100
Ashton Jeanty LV — Less 28.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 64 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
52%
chance of Less · ours
101
Javonte Williams DAL — More 11.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 1 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
52%
chance of More · ours
102
Jake Ferguson DAL — More 2 Receptions
LOST · actual 0 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
52%
chance of More · ours
103
Denzel Boston CLE — Less 49.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 37 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
52%
chance of Less · ours
104
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Less 30.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 15 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
52%
chance of Less · ours
105
Caleb Douglas MIA — Less 36.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 43 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
52%
chance of Less · ours
106
Javonte Williams DAL — More 2 Receptions
LOST · actual 1 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
52%
chance of More · ours
107
Kenneth Walker III KC — Less 89.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 69 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
52%
chance of Less · ours
108
Derrick Henry BAL — Less 78.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 53 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
52%
chance of Less · ours
109
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Less 4 Receptions
WON · actual 2 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
52%
chance of Less · ours
110
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — Less 4 Receptions
WON · actual 2 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
52%
chance of Less · ours
111
Bijan Robinson ATL — Less 31.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
52%
chance of Less · ours
112
Elic Ayomanor TEN — Less 32.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 34 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
52%
chance of Less · ours
113
DK Metcalf PIT — Less 54.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 4 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
52%
chance of Less · ours
114
Konata Mumpfield LA — Less 1.5 Receptions
WON · actual 0 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
52%
chance of Less · ours
115
Ryan Flournoy DAL — Less 37.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 38 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
52%
chance of Less · ours
116
KC Concepcion CLE — Less 46.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 37 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
52%
chance of Less · ours
117
Tyler Warren IND — Less 40.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 18 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
52%
chance of Less · ours
118
Sam LaPorta DET — Less 45.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 33 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
52%
chance of Less · ours
119
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL — Less 2.5 Receptions
WON · actual 1 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
52%
chance of Less · ours
120
Trey McBride ARI — Less 7.5 Receptions
WON · actual 7 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
52%
chance of Less · ours
121
Tyler Allgeier ARI — Less 6.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 44 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
51%
chance of Less · ours
122
Khalil Shakir BUF — Less 4 Receptions
LOST · actual 5 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
51%
chance of Less · ours
123
Jonathan Taylor IND — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 24 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
51%
chance of More · ours
124
Xavier Worthy KC — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 13 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
51%
chance of More · ours
125
Chig Okonkwo WAS — Less 32.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 32 Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
51%
chance of Less · ours
126
Isaac TeSlaa DET — More 17.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
51%
chance of More · ours
127
Michael Mayer LV — More 25.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 53 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
51%
chance of More · ours
128
Pat Freiermuth PIT — More 24.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 35 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
51%
chance of More · ours
129
Tre Tucker LV — More 3.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 0 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
51%
chance of More · ours
130
Michael Wilson ARI — Less 58.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 111 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
51%
chance of Less · ours
131
Bucky Irving TB — Less 3 Receptions
WON · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
51%
chance of Less · ours
132
James Cook BUF — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 21 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
51%
chance of More · ours
133
Bucky Irving TB — More 69.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 170 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
51%
chance of More · ours
134
Cade Otton TB — Less 3.5 Receptions
WON · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
51%
chance of Less · ours
135
Hunter Henry NE — Less 4 Receptions
WON · actual 3 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
51%
chance of Less · ours
136
Stefon Diggs WAS — Less 4 Receptions
WON · actual 3 Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
51%
chance of Less · ours
137
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — More 86.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 153 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
51%
chance of More · ours
138
Zay Flowers BAL — Less 6 Receptions
WON · actual 0 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
51%
chance of Less · ours
139
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE — Less 34.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 154 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
51%
chance of Less · ours
140
Quinshon Judkins CLE — Less 46.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 25 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
51%
chance of Less · ours
141
Malik Washington MIA — More 4 Receptions
WON · actual 5 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
51%
chance of More · ours
142
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET — More 7 Receptions
VOID · actual 7 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
51%
chance of More · ours
143
Bijan Robinson ATL — Less 4 Receptions
WON · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
51%
chance of Less · ours
144
Laquon Treadwell IND — Less 2 Receptions
WON · actual 1 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
51%
chance of Less · ours
145
Trey McBride ARI — More 72.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 72 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
51%
chance of More · ours
146
Chase Brown CIN — More 20.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 46 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
51%
chance of More · ours
147
Gunnar Helm TEN — Less 21.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 76 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
51%
chance of Less · ours
148
Travis Kelce KC — More 46.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 67 Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
51%
chance of More · ours
149
Ted Hurst III TB — More 30.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
51%
chance of More · ours
150
Bucky Irving TB — More 16.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
51%
chance of More · ours
151
Dawson Knox BUF — More 7.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 6 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
51%
chance of More · ours
152
Jake Ferguson DAL — More 17.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
51%
chance of More · ours
153
Omarion Hampton LAC — Less 5.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 7 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
51%
chance of Less · ours
154
Tee Higgins CIN — Less 70.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 155 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
51%
chance of Less · ours
155
Gunnar Helm TEN — More 2.5 Receptions
WON · actual 5 Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
51%
chance of More · ours
156
Michael Wilson ARI — More 4.5 Receptions
WON · actual 8 Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
51%
chance of More · ours
157
Jahan Dotson ATL — Less 22.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 95 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
50%
chance of Less · ours
158
Tre Tucker LV — Less 48.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
50%
chance of Less · ours
159
Cade Otton TB — Less 33.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 0 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
50%
chance of Less · ours
160
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE — More 3.5 Receptions
WON · actual 10 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
50%
chance of More · ours
161
KC Concepcion CLE — Less 4.5 Receptions
WON · actual 3 Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
50%
chance of Less · ours
162
Stefon Diggs WAS — More 42.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 38 Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
50%
chance of More · ours
163
Keon Coleman BUF — Less 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 4 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
50%
chance of Less · ours
164
Michael Mayer LV — Less 3 Receptions
LOST · actual 5 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
50%
chance of Less · ours
165
Parker Washington JAX — More 5 Receptions
LOST · actual 1 Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
50%
chance of More · ours
166
Puka Nacua LA — More 91.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 80 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
50%
chance of More · ours
167
Quentin Johnston LAC — More 2.5 Receptions
WON · actual 4 Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
50%
chance of More · ours
168
Isaac TeSlaa DET — Less 1.5 Receptions
WON · actual 0 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
50%
chance of Less · ours
169
Jordan Mason MIN — More 49.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 20 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
50%
chance of More · ours
170
Malik Washington MIA — More 41.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 40 New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
50%
chance of More · ours
171
Khalil Shakir BUF — Less 41.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 64 Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
50%
chance of Less · ours
172
Jalen Nailor LV — More 17.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 38 Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
50%
chance of More · ours
173
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET — More 78.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 46 Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
50%
chance of More · ours
174
Jahan Dotson ATL — Less 2 Receptions
VOID · actual 2 Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
50%
chance of Less · ours
Fantasy score priced from our ladders — catches, yards and touchdowns drawn together · new, tracking · 117 lines
1
Chase Brown CIN — More 15.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 18.1 our median 18.2 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
63%
chance of More · ours
2
Efton Chism III NE — Less 6.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 8.7 our median 4.8 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
63%
chance of Less · ours
3
Omarion Hampton LAC — More 7 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 4.7 our median 9 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
63%
chance of More · ours
4
Justin Jefferson MIN — Less 15.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 14.3 our median 12.9 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
62%
chance of Less · ours
5
Noah Gray KC — Less 3.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 9.5 our median 2.7 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
60%
chance of Less · ours
6
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN — Less 11.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 17.7 our median 9.9 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
60%
chance of Less · ours
7
Mason Taylor NYJ — Less 6 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 4.9 our median 4.8 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
60%
chance of Less · ours
8
Darnell Washington PIT — Less 6 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 12.4 our median 4.6 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
60%
chance of Less · ours
9
Ashton Jeanty LV — More 14.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 10.3 our median 16.5 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
60%
chance of More · ours
10
Bucky Irving TB — More 14.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 23 our median 16.3 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
60%
chance of More · ours
11
Adonai Mitchell NYJ — More 5.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 27.2 our median 6.8 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
59%
chance of More · ours
12
Greg Dulcich MIA — Less 7.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 8.3 our median 6.2 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
59%
chance of Less · ours
105 more · show
13
Aaron Jones MIN — More 7 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 6 our median 8.4 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
59%
chance of More · ours
14
Drake London ATL — Less 16.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 1.8 our median 14.8 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
58%
chance of Less · ours
15
Rashod Bateman BAL — More 5.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 3.2 our median 6.8 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
58%
chance of More · ours
16
Charlie Kolar LAC — Less 5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 3 our median 4.1 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
58%
chance of Less · ours
17
Bhayshul Tuten JAX — More 13.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 29.9 our median 14.8 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
57%
chance of More · ours
18
Rashee Rice KC — Less 11 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 18.3 our median 9.9 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
57%
chance of Less · ours
19
Parker Washington JAX — More 14.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 3.6 our median 16 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
57%
chance of More · ours
20
Tanner McKee PHI — More 11.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 10.98 our median 12.4 · Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
57%
chance of More · ours
21
Laquon Treadwell IND — Less 5.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 2.8 our median 4.7 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
57%
chance of Less · ours
22
Dawson Knox BUF — Less 3 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 1.6 our median 2.4 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
56%
chance of Less · ours
23
Jonathan Taylor IND — More 12.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 8.7 our median 13.6 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
56%
chance of More · ours
24
Germie Bernard PIT — Less 10.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 8 our median 9.4 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
56%
chance of Less · ours
25
Makai Lemon PHI — Less 10 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 11.7 our median 9 · Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
56%
chance of Less · ours
26
Drew Sample CIN — Less 3 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 0 our median 2.6 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
56%
chance of Less · ours
27
Courtland Sutton DEN — Less 9 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 9.3 our median 8 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
56%
chance of Less · ours
28
Jerry Jeudy CLE — Less 5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 0 our median 4.3 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
56%
chance of Less · ours
29
Jordan Mason MIN — More 8.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 2 our median 9.3 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
56%
chance of More · ours
30
Jameson Williams DET — Less 10.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 17 our median 9.5 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
56%
chance of Less · ours
31
Josh Allen BUF — More 23.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 28.56 our median 24.8 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
55%
chance of More · ours
32
Brenton Strange JAX — Less 9.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 7.5 our median 8.7 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
55%
chance of Less · ours
33
Jake Ferguson DAL — More 5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 0 our median 6 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
55%
chance of More · ours
34
Konata Mumpfield LA — Less 4.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 0 our median 3.8 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
55%
chance of Less · ours
35
Chris Godwin TB — Less 10 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 0 our median 9.2 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
55%
chance of Less · ours
36
Kenneth Walker III KC — More 18 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 12.4 our median 19.1 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
55%
chance of More · ours
37
CeeDee Lamb DAL — More 18 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 12.8 our median 19.3 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
55%
chance of More · ours
38
Jordan Addison MIN — Less 8.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 9.6 our median 7.7 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
55%
chance of Less · ours
39
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET — More 17.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 12.6 our median 18.6 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
55%
chance of More · ours
40
DeMario Douglas NE — Less 9 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 16.6 our median 8.2 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
55%
chance of Less · ours
41
Geno Smith NYJ — More 15.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 20 our median 16.4 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
55%
chance of More · ours
42
Hunter Henry NE — Less 11 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 6 our median 10.3 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
54%
chance of Less · ours
43
Dak Prescott DAL — More 21 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 19.8 our median 21.8 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
54%
chance of More · ours
44
Evan Engram DEN — Less 6 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 0 our median 5.4 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
54%
chance of Less · ours
45
Keenan Allen IND — Less 9 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 13.7 our median 8.4 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
54%
chance of Less · ours
46
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE — Less 8.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 25.4 our median 7.9 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
54%
chance of Less · ours
47
Cam Ward TEN — More 12 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 24.26 our median 12.6 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
54%
chance of More · ours
48
Tee Higgins CIN — More 14.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 37.5 our median 15.4 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
54%
chance of More · ours
49
Tony Pollard TEN — Less 13 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 28.7 our median 12.4 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
54%
chance of Less · ours
50
Patrick Mahomes KC — More 15 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 25.44 our median 15.6 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
54%
chance of More · ours
51
Quinshon Judkins CLE — More 10 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 6.9 our median 10.5 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
53%
chance of More · ours
52
Caleb Douglas MIA — Less 8 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 8.3 our median 7.5 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
53%
chance of Less · ours
53
Josh Downs IND — More 7.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 12.3 our median 8 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
53%
chance of More · ours
54
Jauan Jennings MIN — More 3.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 3.1 our median 3.8 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
53%
chance of More · ours
55
Javonte Williams DAL — More 16.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 6.7 our median 17.2 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
53%
chance of More · ours
56
Jacoby Brissett ARI — More 18 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 5.46 our median 18.5 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
53%
chance of More · ours
57
Chig Okonkwo WAS — Less 8 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 5.2 our median 7.6 · Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
53%
chance of Less · ours
58
Kyren Williams LA — More 15.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 12.9 our median 16.1 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
53%
chance of More · ours
59
Michael Penix Jr. ATL — More 14 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 6.1 our median 14.5 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
53%
chance of More · ours
60
Jayden Daniels WAS — More 18 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 14.98 our median 18.5 · Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
53%
chance of More · ours
61
Deshaun Watson CLE — More 15 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 13.16 our median 15.4 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
53%
chance of More · ours
62
Puka Nacua LA — More 20.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 25 our median 21.2 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
53%
chance of More · ours
63
Brock Bowers LV — Less 15.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 28.2 our median 15 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
52%
chance of Less · ours
64
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ — Less 9 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 0 our median 8.6 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
52%
chance of Less · ours
65
Ryan Flournoy DAL — More 8.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 13.1 our median 8.9 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
52%
chance of More · ours
66
Joe Burrow CIN — Less 21.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 45.48 our median 21.1 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
52%
chance of Less · ours
67
Bo Nix DEN — More 14.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 17.28 our median 14.9 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
52%
chance of More · ours
68
KC Concepcion CLE — Less 10.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 6.7 our median 10.1 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
52%
chance of Less · ours
69
Kirk Cousins LV — More 15.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 28.18 our median 15.8 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
52%
chance of More · ours
70
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL — Less 7 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 2.3 our median 6.7 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
52%
chance of Less · ours
71
Isaac TeSlaa DET — Less 4.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 0 our median 4.2 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
52%
chance of Less · ours
72
Jahan Dotson ATL — Less 5.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 11.5 our median 5.2 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
52%
chance of Less · ours
73
Trey McBride ARI — More 18 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 20.2 our median 18.5 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
52%
chance of More · ours
74
Drake Maye NE — More 19.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 22.46 our median 19.8 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
52%
chance of More · ours
75
Malik Washington MIA — Less 10 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 15 our median 9.7 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
52%
chance of Less · ours
76
Derrick Henry BAL — More 15.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 14 our median 15.9 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
52%
chance of More · ours
77
Elic Ayomanor TEN — More 6.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 6.4 our median 6.8 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
52%
chance of More · ours
78
Pat Freiermuth PIT — More 6.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 11.6 our median 6.8 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
52%
chance of More · ours
79
Khalil Shakir BUF — More 9.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 11.4 our median 9.8 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
52%
chance of More · ours
80
Jaylen Warren PIT — Less 15 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 21.3 our median 14.7 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
52%
chance of Less · ours
81
Justin Herbert LAC — More 15.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 11.78 our median 15.8 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
52%
chance of More · ours
82
Rhamondre Stevenson NE — More 15 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 12 our median 15.3 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
52%
chance of More · ours
83
Malik Willis MIA — Less 14.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 16.64 our median 14.2 · New England Patriots@Miami Dolphins
52%
chance of Less · ours
84
Cade Otton TB — More 8 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 0 our median 8.2 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
52%
chance of More · ours
85
Zay Flowers BAL — Less 17.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 0 our median 17.1 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
52%
chance of Less · ours
86
Daniel Jones IND — More 12 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 10.46 our median 12.2 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
52%
chance of More · ours
87
Tyler Warren IND — Less 10 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 5.8 our median 9.8 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
52%
chance of Less · ours
88
Gunnar Helm TEN — Less 5.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 12.6 our median 5.3 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
52%
chance of Less · ours
89
Michael Mayer LV — More 6.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 10.3 our median 6.7 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
51%
chance of More · ours
90
Matthew Stafford LA — Less 18 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 10.28 our median 17.8 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
51%
chance of Less · ours
91
T.J. Hockenson MIN — Less 10 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 15.8 our median 9.8 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
51%
chance of Less · ours
92
Jared Goff DET — More 17 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 11.04 our median 17.2 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
51%
chance of More · ours
93
Aaron Rodgers PIT — Less 14.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 6.88 our median 14.3 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
51%
chance of Less · ours
94
Lamar Jackson BAL — More 19.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 0 our median 19.7 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
51%
chance of More · ours
95
Kendrick Bourne ARI — Less 8.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 3.9 our median 8.4 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
51%
chance of Less · ours
96
Denzel Boston CLE — Less 9.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 9.7 our median 9.3 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
51%
chance of Less · ours
97
Jahmyr Gibbs DET — More 22 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 24.8 our median 22.2 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
51%
chance of More · ours
98
James Cook BUF — More 16 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 18.1 our median 16.2 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
51%
chance of More · ours
99
Dyami Brown WAS — More 3.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 0 our median 3.6 · Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
51%
chance of More · ours
100
Kyler Murray MIN — Less 17.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 19.9 our median 17.4 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
51%
chance of Less · ours
101
Michael Wilson ARI — Less 12.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 26.8 our median 12.4 · Arizona Cardinals@Dallas Cowboys
51%
chance of Less · ours
102
Stefon Diggs WAS — More 10.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 12.8 our median 10.6 · Philadelphia Eagles@Washington Commanders
51%
chance of More · ours
103
Mark Andrews BAL — More 8 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 4.4 our median 8.1 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
51%
chance of More · ours
104
Garrett Wilson NYJ — Less 13.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 14.3 our median 13.4 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
51%
chance of Less · ours
105
Travis Kelce KC — More 10.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 11.7 our median 10.6 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
51%
chance of More · ours
106
Bijan Robinson ATL — More 20 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 7.6 our median 20.1 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
51%
chance of More · ours
107
Baker Mayfield TB — More 16 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 1.4 our median 16.1 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
50%
chance of More · ours
108
Tre Tucker LV — More 10 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 0 our median 10.1 · Las Vegas Raiders@New York Jets
50%
chance of More · ours
109
Xavier Worthy KC — More 7.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 4.3 our median 7.6 · Kansas City Chiefs@Denver Broncos
50%
chance of More · ours
110
Ja'Marr Chase CIN — Less 18 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 31.1 our median 17.9 · Tennessee Titans@Cincinnati Bengals
50%
chance of Less · ours
111
Ted Hurst III TB — More 7 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 0 our median 7 · Atlanta Falcons@Tampa Bay Buccaneers
50%
chance of More · ours
112
Trevor Lawrence JAX — Less 19.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 21.4 our median 19.5 · Indianapolis Colts@Jacksonville Jaguars
50%
chance of Less · ours
113
Sam LaPorta DET — Less 10.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 6.5 our median 10.5 · Minnesota Vikings@Detroit Lions
50%
chance of Less · ours
114
Tre Harris LAC — Less 7 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 6.1 our median 7 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
50%
chance of Less · ours
115
DK Metcalf PIT — More 11.5 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 1.4 our median 11.5 · Cleveland Browns@Pittsburgh Steelers
50%
chance of More · ours
116
Keon Coleman BUF — Less 6.5 Fantasy Score
WON · actual 1.4 our median 6.5 · Baltimore Ravens@Buffalo Bills
50%
chance of Less · ours
117
Quentin Johnston LAC — Less 7 Fantasy Score
LOST · actual 7.7 our median 7 · Los Angeles Chargers@Los Angeles Rams
50%
chance of Less · ours
👺 Goblins PrizePicks' LOWER lines — easier to clear, the app pays less for them · 40 lines · ranked by our chance of More
1
Tre Harris LAC — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 31 standard line 34.5 · 25 yards under it
88%
chance of More · ours
2
Ashton Jeanty LV — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 64 standard line 28.5 · 19 yards under it
88%
chance of More · ours
3
Elic Ayomanor TEN — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 34 standard line 32.5 · 23 yards under it
88%
chance of More · ours
4
Sam LaPorta DET — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 33 standard line 45.5 · 26 yards under it
87%
chance of More · ours
5
Trey McBride ARI — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 72 standard line 72.5 · 33 yards under it
87%
chance of More · ours
6
Tre Tucker LV — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 48.5 · 29 yards under it
86%
chance of More · ours
7
Jameson Williams DET — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 70 standard line 51.5 · 32 yards under it
86%
chance of More · ours
8
George Pickens DAL — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 48 standard line 65.5 · 36 yards under it
85%
chance of More · ours
9
Lamar Jackson BAL — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 24.5 · 15 yards under it
85%
chance of More · ours
10
Quentin Johnston LAC — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 37 standard line 33.5 · 24 yards under it
85%
chance of More · ours
30 more goblins · show
11
Denzel Boston CLE — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 37 standard line 49.5 · 30 yards under it
85%
chance of More · ours
12
Jayden Daniels WAS — More 16.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 23 standard line 35.5 · 19 yards under it
85%
chance of More · ours
13
Malik Willis MIA — More 12.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 2 standard line 33.5 · 21 yards under it
85%
chance of More · ours
14
Ted Hurst III TB — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 30.5 · 21 yards under it
85%
chance of More · ours
15
Hunter Henry NE — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 30 standard line 45.5 · 26 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
16
Josh Allen BUF — More 18.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 30 standard line 35.5 · 17 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
17
Travis Kelce KC — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 67 standard line 46.5 · 27 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
18
Keon Coleman BUF — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 4 standard line 29.5 · 20 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
19
Kyler Murray MIN — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 35 standard line 24.5 · 15 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
20
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 154 standard line 34.5 · 20 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
21
T.J. Hockenson MIN — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 58 standard line 42.5 · 23 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
22
Kendrick Bourne ARI — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 29 standard line 38.5 · 24 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
23
Greg Dulcich MIA — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 43 standard line 28.5 · 19 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
24
DK Metcalf PIT — More 24.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 4 standard line 54.5 · 30 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
25
Jordan Addison MIN — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 66 standard line 38.5 · 24 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
26
Jeremiyah Love ARI — More 20.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 23 standard line 45.5 · 25 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
27
Ladd McConkey LAC — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 86 standard line 47.5 · 28 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
28
Ryan Flournoy DAL — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 38 standard line 37.5 · 23 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
29
Drake Maye NE — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 5 standard line 22.5 · 13 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
30
Cade Otton TB — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 33.5 · 19 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
31
Tez Johnson TB — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 31.5 · 22 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
32
Josh Allen BUF — More 19.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 30 standard line 35.5 · 16 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
33
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET — More 4.5 Receptions
WON · actual 7 standard line 7 · 2.5 catches under it
83%
chance of More · ours
34
Michael Mayer LV — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 53 standard line 25.5 · 16 yards under it
82%
chance of More · ours
35
Bucky Irving TB — More 39.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 170 standard line 69.5 · 30 yards under it
82%
chance of More · ours
36
Zay Flowers BAL — More 49.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 88.5 · 39 yards under it
82%
chance of More · ours
37
Michael Wilson ARI — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 111 standard line 58.5 · 29 yards under it
82%
chance of More · ours
38
George Pickens DAL — More 2.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 2 standard line 4.5 · 2 catches under it
82%
chance of More · ours
39
Courtland Sutton DEN — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 53 standard line 38.5 · 24 yards under it
82%
chance of More · ours
40
Pat Freiermuth PIT — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 35 standard line 24.5 · 15 yards under it
82%
chance of More · ours
😈 Demons PrizePicks' HIGHER lines — harder to clear, the app pays more for them · 40 lines · ranked by our chance of More
1
Dalton Kincaid BUF — More 46.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 86 standard line 41.5 · 5 yards over it
50%
chance of More · ours
2
Rashod Bateman BAL — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 22 standard line 25.5 · 4 yards over it
49%
chance of More · ours
3
Michael Carter TEN — More 14.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 11.5 · 3 yards over it
49%
chance of More · ours
4
Michael Carter TEN — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 7.5 · 2 yards over it
49%
chance of More · ours
5
Chase Brown CIN — More 64.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 55 standard line 57.5 · 7 yards over it
49%
chance of More · ours
6
Isaiah Williams NYJ — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 18 standard line 0.5 · 29 yards over it
48%
chance of More · ours
7
Rachaad White WAS — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 5 standard line 13.5 · 1 yards over it
48%
chance of More · ours
8
Rashod Bateman BAL — More 2.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 1 standard line 2 · 0.5 catches over it
48%
chance of More · ours
9
Sean Tucker TB — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
VOID standard line 6.5 · 3 yards over it
48%
chance of More · ours
10
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 12 standard line 10.5 · 9 yards over it
48%
chance of More · ours
30 more demons · show
11
Josh Downs IND — More 3.5 Receptions
WON · actual 4 standard line 3 · 0.5 catches over it
47%
chance of More · ours
12
Josh Downs IND — More 38.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 23 standard line 32.5 · 6 yards over it
47%
chance of More · ours
13
Michael Carter TEN — More 19.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 11.5 · 8 yards over it
47%
chance of More · ours
14
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 4 standard line 8.5 · 11 yards over it
47%
chance of More · ours
15
Justin Jefferson MIN — More 79.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 33 standard line 76.5 · 3 yards over it
47%
chance of More · ours
16
Travis Kelce KC — More 49.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 67 standard line 46.5 · 3 yards over it
47%
chance of More · ours
17
Blake Corum LA — More 49.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 73 standard line 47.5 · 2 yards over it
47%
chance of More · ours
18
Jake Ferguson DAL — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 17.5 · 2 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
19
Jonathan Taylor IND — More 58.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 23 standard line 50.5 · 8 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
20
Dalton Kincaid BUF — More 49.5 Receiving Yds
WON · actual 86 standard line 41.5 · 8 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
21
Isaiah Williams NYJ — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 18 standard line 0.5 · 39 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
22
Sam LaPorta DET — More 47.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 33 standard line 45.5 · 2 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
23
Josh Downs IND — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 23 standard line 32.5 · 7 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
24
Stefon Diggs WAS — More 46.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 38 standard line 42.5 · 4 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
25
Justin Jefferson MIN — More 6.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 5 standard line 6 · 0.5 catches over it
46%
chance of More · ours
26
Travis Kelce KC — More 4.5 Receptions
WON · actual 5 standard line 4 · 0.5 catches over it
46%
chance of More · ours
27
Michael Penix Jr. ATL — More 4.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 11 standard line 2.5 · 2 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
28
Emmett Johnson KC — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 15 standard line 7.5 · 2 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
29
Ashton Jeanty LV — More 55.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 9 standard line 49.5 · 6 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
30
Justin Jefferson MIN — More 89.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 33 standard line 76.5 · 13 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
31
Tre Harris LAC — More 35.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 31 standard line 34.5 · 1 yards over it
46%
chance of More · ours
32
Corey Kiner NE — More 1.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 0.5 · 1 yards over it
45%
chance of More · ours
33
KC Concepcion CLE — More 49.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 37 standard line 46.5 · 3 yards over it
45%
chance of More · ours
34
Saquon Barkley PHI — More 52.5 Rushing Yds
LOST · actual 30 standard line 48.5 · 4 yards over it
45%
chance of More · ours
35
Zachariah Branch ATL — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
LOST · actual 0 standard line 8.5 · 1 yards over it
45%
chance of More · ours
36
Michael Carter TEN — More 2.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 0 standard line 1.5 · 1 catches over it
45%
chance of More · ours
37
DK Metcalf PIT — More 4.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 1 standard line 4 · 0.5 catches over it
45%
chance of More · ours
38
Tanner McKee PHI — More 4.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 25 standard line 2.5 · 2 yards over it
45%
chance of More · ours
39
Tony Pollard TEN — More 66.5 Rushing Yds
WON · actual 117 standard line 64.5 · 2 yards over it
45%
chance of More · ours
40
Will Mallory IND — More 1.5 Receptions
LOST · actual 0 standard line 0.5 · 1 catches over it
45%
chance of More · ours
Goblin and Demon payouts are set per pick in the PrizePicks app and are not in our feed, so these are listed with our chance only and never placed on a slip. A Goblin is worth it when our chance beats what the reduced payout needs; a Demon when the boost pays for the lower chance.
39 lines we do not price yet — rush + rec yards · show
Jahmyr Gibbs — rush + rec yds 125.5
MIN@DET
Bijan Robinson — rush + rec yds 118.5
ATL@TB
Kenneth Walker III — rush + rec yds 109.5
KC@DEN
Puka Nacua — rush + rec yds 101.5
LAC@LA
James Cook — rush + rec yds 99.5
BAL@BUF
Braelon Allen — rush + rec yds 97.5
LV@NYJ
Jaylen Warren — rush + rec yds 94.5
CLE@PIT
Bucky Irving — rush + rec yds 92.5
ATL@TB
Derrick Henry — rush + rec yds 92.5
BAL@BUF
Javonte Williams — rush + rec yds 91.5
ARI@DAL
Kyren Williams — rush + rec yds 89.5
LAC@LA
Bhayshul Tuten — rush + rec yds 86.5
IND@JAX
Chase Brown — rush + rec yds 85.5
TEN@CIN
Rhamondre Stevenson — rush + rec yds 85.5
NE@MIA
Ashton Jeanty — rush + rec yds 84.5
LV@NYJ
Tony Pollard — rush + rec yds 83.5
TEN@CIN
Ollie Gordon II — rush + rec yds 75.5
NE@MIA
Saquon Barkley — rush + rec yds 70.5
PHI@WAS
Jonathan Taylor — rush + rec yds 68.5
IND@JAX
Jonah Coleman — rush + rec yds 68.5
KC@DEN
Jeremiyah Love — rush + rec yds 60.5
ARI@DAL
Quinshon Judkins — rush + rec yds 60.5
CLE@PIT
Blake Corum — rush + rec yds 59.5
LAC@LA
Rachaad White — rush + rec yds 58.5
PHI@WAS
Rico Dowdle — rush + rec yds 51.5
CLE@PIT
Malik Washington — rush + rec yds 49.5
NE@MIA
Omarion Hampton — rush + rec yds 44.5
LAC@LA
Aaron Jones — rush + rec yds 43.5
MIN@DET
Corey Kiner — rush + rec yds 41.5
NE@MIA
Samaje Perine — rush + rec yds 34.5
TEN@CIN
Kimani Vidal — rush + rec yds 34.5
LAC@LA
Dylan Sampson — rush + rec yds 32.5
CLE@PIT
Kenny Gainwell — rush + rec yds 29.5
ATL@TB
Keaton Mitchell — rush + rec yds 26.5
LAC@LA
Justice Hill — rush + rec yds 25.5
BAL@BUF
Michael Carter — rush + rec yds 23.5
TEN@CIN
Ty Johnson — rush + rec yds 21.5
BAL@BUF
Emmett Johnson — rush + rec yds 17.5
KC@DEN
Connor Heyward — rush + rec yds 0.5
LV@NYJ
Standard lines More or Less at PrizePicks' number, ranked by our chance · 14 lines
1
Colston Loveland CHI — Less 4 Receptions
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
59%
chance of Less · ours
2
Kalif Raymond CHI — More 16.5 Receiving Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
58%
chance of More · ours
3
AJ Barner SEA — Less 30.5 Receiving Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
58%
chance of Less · ours
4
Colston Loveland CHI — Less 42.5 Receiving Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
57%
chance of Less · ours
5
Cooper Kupp SEA — Less 29.5 Receiving Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
54%
chance of Less · ours
6
Rome Odunze CHI — Less 40.5 Receiving Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
54%
chance of Less · ours
7
Rome Odunze CHI — Less 3 Receptions
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
53%
chance of Less · ours
8
D'Andre Swift CHI — Less 21.5 Receiving Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
53%
chance of Less · ours
9
D'Andre Swift CHI — Less 60.5 Rushing Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
52%
chance of Less · ours
10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — More 7 Receptions
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
52%
chance of More · ours
11
D'Andre Swift CHI — Less 3 Receptions
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
51%
chance of Less · ours
12
Luther Burden III CHI — Less 52.5 Receiving Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
51%
chance of Less · ours
2 more · show
13
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — More 99.5 Receiving Yds
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
50%
chance of More · ours
14
Luther Burden III CHI — More 4 Receptions
Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
50%
chance of More · ours
Fantasy score priced from our ladders — catches, yards and touchdowns drawn together · new, tracking · 10 lines
1
AJ Barner SEA — Less 8 Fantasy Score
our median 6.8 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
58%
chance of Less · ours
2
Colston Loveland CHI — Less 10 Fantasy Score
our median 8.8 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
58%
chance of Less · ours
3
Rome Odunze CHI — Less 9 Fantasy Score
our median 8 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
56%
chance of Less · ours
4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — More 20.5 Fantasy Score
our median 22 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
56%
chance of More · ours
5
Sam Darnold SEA — More 16 Fantasy Score
our median 16.9 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
55%
chance of More · ours
6
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 15 Fantasy Score
our median 15.8 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
54%
chance of More · ours
7
Caleb Williams CHI — More 17 Fantasy Score
our median 17.7 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
54%
chance of More · ours
8
Kalif Raymond CHI — More 5 Fantasy Score
our median 5.4 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
53%
chance of More · ours
9
Cooper Kupp SEA — Less 7 Fantasy Score
our median 6.5 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
53%
chance of Less · ours
10
Luther Burden III CHI — Less 11.5 Fantasy Score
our median 11 · Chicago Bears@Seattle Seahawks
53%
chance of Less · ours
👺 Goblins PrizePicks' LOWER lines — easier to clear, the app pays less for them · 16 lines · ranked by our chance of More
1
Caleb Williams CHI — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 22.5 · 13 yards under it
86%
chance of More · ours
2
Rome Odunze CHI — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 40.5 · 26 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
3
Zach Charbonnet SEA — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 28.5 · 19 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
4
Luther Burden III CHI — More 24.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 52.5 · 28 yards under it
84%
chance of More · ours
5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — More 59.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 99.5 · 40 yards under it
83%
chance of More · ours
6
Cooper Kupp SEA — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 29.5 · 20 yards under it
81%
chance of More · ours
7
Rome Odunze CHI — More 1.5 Receptions
standard line 3 · 1.5 catches under it
79%
chance of More · ours
8
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 1.5 Receptions
standard line 3 · 1.5 catches under it
78%
chance of More · ours
9
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 21.5 · 12 yards under it
77%
chance of More · ours
10
Luther Burden III CHI — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 52.5 · 23 yards under it
77%
chance of More · ours
6 more goblins · show
11
Luther Burden III CHI — More 2.5 Receptions
standard line 4 · 1.5 catches under it
77%
chance of More · ours
12
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — More 69.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 99.5 · 30 yards under it
75%
chance of More · ours
13
Rome Odunze CHI — More 19.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 40.5 · 21 yards under it
75%
chance of More · ours
14
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 38.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 60.5 · 22 yards under it
74%
chance of More · ours
15
AJ Barner SEA — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 30.5 · 21 yards under it
73%
chance of More · ours
16
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 39.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 60.5 · 21 yards under it
73%
chance of More · ours
😈 Demons PrizePicks' HIGHER lines — harder to clear, the app pays more for them · 39 lines · ranked by our chance of More
1
Kalif Raymond CHI — More 24.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 16.5 · 8 yards over it
47%
chance of More · ours
2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — More 7.5 Receptions
standard line 7 · 0.5 catches over it
46%
chance of More · ours
3
Eric Saubert SEA — More 1.5 Receptions
standard line 0.5 · 1 catches over it
45%
chance of More · ours
4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — More 109.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 99.5 · 10 yards over it
44%
chance of More · ours
5
Luther Burden III CHI — More 58.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 52.5 · 6 yards over it
44%
chance of More · ours
6
Roschon Johnson CHI — More 12.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 10.5 · 2 yards over it
44%
chance of More · ours
7
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 65.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 60.5 · 5 yards over it
43%
chance of More · ours
8
Luther Burden III CHI — More 59.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 52.5 · 7 yards over it
43%
chance of More · ours
9
Emanuel Wilson SEA — More 29.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 21.5 · 8 yards over it
43%
chance of More · ours
10
Roschon Johnson CHI — More 4.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 3.5 · 1 yards over it
43%
chance of More · ours
29 more demons · show
11
Zach Charbonnet SEA — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 7.5 · 2 yards over it
42%
chance of More · ours
12
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 24.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 21.5 · 3 yards over it
42%
chance of More · ours
13
Luther Burden III CHI — More 4.5 Receptions
standard line 4 · 0.5 catches over it
42%
chance of More · ours
14
Rome Odunze CHI — More 45.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 40.5 · 5 yards over it
42%
chance of More · ours
15
Caleb Williams CHI — More 29.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 22.5 · 7 yards over it
41%
chance of More · ours
16
Kalif Raymond CHI — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 16.5 · 13 yards over it
41%
chance of More · ours
17
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 3.5 Receptions
standard line 3 · 0.5 catches over it
40%
chance of More · ours
18
Zach Charbonnet SEA — More 34.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 28.5 · 6 yards over it
40%
chance of More · ours
19
Eric Saubert SEA — More 4.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 0.5 · 4 yards over it
40%
chance of More · ours
20
Colston Loveland CHI — More 48.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 42.5 · 6 yards over it
40%
chance of More · ours
21
AJ Barner SEA — More 35.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 30.5 · 5 yards over it
40%
chance of More · ours
22
Colston Loveland CHI — More 49.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 42.5 · 7 yards over it
39%
chance of More · ours
23
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 69.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 60.5 · 9 yards over it
39%
chance of More · ours
24
Rome Odunze CHI — More 49.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 40.5 · 9 yards over it
38%
chance of More · ours
25
Tory Horton SEA — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 22.5 · 7 yards over it
38%
chance of More · ours
26
Rome Odunze CHI — More 3.5 Receptions
standard line 3 · 0.5 catches over it
38%
chance of More · ours
27
AJ Barner SEA — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 30.5 · 9 yards over it
38%
chance of More · ours
28
Sam Roush CHI — More 14.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 9.5 · 5 yards over it
37%
chance of More · ours
29
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA — More 119.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 99.5 · 20 yards over it
37%
chance of More · ours
30
Colston Loveland CHI — More 4.5 Receptions
standard line 4 · 0.5 catches over it
37%
chance of More · ours
31
Cooper Kupp SEA — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 29.5 · 10 yards over it
37%
chance of More · ours
32
D'Andre Swift CHI — More 29.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 21.5 · 8 yards over it
35%
chance of More · ours
33
Zach Charbonnet SEA — More 39.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 28.5 · 11 yards over it
33%
chance of More · ours
34
Colston Loveland CHI — More 5.5 Receptions
standard line 4 · 1.5 catches over it
33%
chance of More · ours
35
Roschon Johnson CHI — More 19.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 10.5 · 9 yards over it
32%
chance of More · ours
36
Sam Darnold SEA — More 9.5 Rushing Yds
standard line 4.5 · 5 yards over it
32%
chance of More · ours
37
Cooper Kupp SEA — More 49.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 29.5 · 20 yards over it
30%
chance of More · ours
38
Tory Horton SEA — More 39.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 22.5 · 17 yards over it
30%
chance of More · ours
39
Roschon Johnson CHI — More 9.5 Receiving Yds
standard line 3.5 · 6 yards over it
30%
chance of More · ours
Goblin and Demon payouts are set per pick in the PrizePicks app and are not in our feed, so these are listed with our chance only and never placed on a slip. A Goblin is worth it when our chance beats what the reduced payout needs; a Demon when the boost pays for the lower chance.
4 lines we do not price yet — rush + rec yards · show
D'Andre Swift — rush + rec yds 86.5
CHI@SEA
Luther Burden III — rush + rec yds 61.5
CHI@SEA
Zach Charbonnet — rush + rec yds 40.5
CHI@SEA
Roschon Johnson — rush + rec yds 17.5
CHI@SEA
Payouts: Power Play 3x / 5x / 10x / 20x for 2–5 picks, Flex pays on most-but-not-all; Goblin and Demon boosts are set per pick in the app and are not in our feed. Lines are as of the last pull; check them in the app.
Results
Every published play graded, and every held play graded beside it so the holds can be judged.
week 8
Week 8 so far
3 of 8tracked groups above break-even
every play graded against the box score at the line and price shown · Thu Oct 29, Sun Nov 1
Published plays
10–9
+5.00 units · ROI +26%
Core plays
10–9
+5.00 units
Also clears
—
Season 2026
8weeks graded
weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 · the cards below carry this week and the season side by side
Published plays
353–370
+20.08 units · ROI +3%
Core plays
214–201
+53.18 units
Also clears
139–169
-33.10 units
Published, by tier
Core plays
This week
53% 10/19 · +5.00u
Season
52%214/415 · +53.18u
Also clears
This week
—
Season
45%139/308 · -33.10u
Held plays, by reason
Held — tackles (held since week 1)
This week
39%30/77 · -18.07u
Season
50%180/358 · -14.04u
Held — negative-EV backtest
This week
46%53/116 · -3.64u
Season
50%443/894 · +30.05u
Held — rookie prior
This week
75%3/4 · +1.63u
Season
53% 39/73 · +6.28u
Held — model/book gap 15pp+ (old rule, wk 1-2)
This week
—
Season
49%72/148 · +8.88u
Held — model/book gap 25pp+
This week
41%21/51 · -8.80u
Season
49%115/237 · +10.63u
Held — yardage overs run cold
This week
41%28/69 · -12.51u
Season
46%169/366 · -31.16u
Held — no consistent record
This week
—
Season
51%82/160 · +11.12u
Held — passing yards, no record
This week
—
Season
33%4/12 · -2.23u
Held — passing yards, no record
This week
—
Season
6%1/17 · -14.15u
Held — no consistent record
This week
—
Season
52%56/107 · +1.88u
Held — passing yards, no record
This week
62%5/8 · +2.16u
Season
51%20/39 · +1.83u
Held — passing yards, no record
This week
56% 9/16 · +5.37u
Season
37%22/59 · -8.48u
Held — no consistent record
This week
50%61/122 · -5.12u
Season
51%177/348 · -0.96u
By prop
Anytime TD
This week
0%0/3 · -3.00u
Season
31%11/35 · +6.90u
Passing Yds
This week
58% 14/24 · +7.52u
Season
42%85/201 · -22.05u
Passing TDs
This week
60%3/5 · +0.19u
Season
53% 46/86 · +6.30u
Receptions
This week
50%71/143 · -8.67u
Season
51%557/1099 · +0.78u
Receiving Yds
This week
44%68/155 · -12.96u
Season
49%570/1167 · +3.68u
Rushing Yds
This week
45%34/75 · +1.01u
Season
48%284/595 · +38.16u
Tackles
This week
39%30/77 · -18.07u
Season
50%180/358 · -14.04u
Flat one unit per play at the price on the row; voids excluded. Since the 2026-10-06 trim, core = the shown groups (rushing-yards unders and receptions overs 15–25 points from the price, anytime TDs 3–6 points above the blended price, big-gap receptions unders, rookie rushing unders); before that, core meant every 15–25 point gap (and before 2026-09-28 the 5–12 band). Also clears = the old thin edge, under 15, now held. Held plays are shown so the holds themselves are on the record.
How to read this
Start with the Plan tab; the rest explains what each tab is and what the numbers mean.
Start on 📋 Plan. It lists every product on this sheet with its graded record at the stated stake, in order of return, and a stake calculator (a unit is 3% of your bankroll). Profit here is edge × volume × stake: the edge is in the shown props, the volume is what the trim allows, the stake is your lever. One unit on every shown play, the same unit every week — never size up a play you like.
The sheet shows only groups with a record. Every priced play is graded, but only the groups that have been profitable in essentially every week of this season are shown (core, night · tracking, rookie path, rush under). The badge on a row is its group; the Results tab and each day's panel carry the record. rush under is the backbone: rushing-yards unders where our number sits under 15 points from the book's, or 17.5–20 points under it. core on a TD row is an anytime-TD price 3–6 points better than the blended chance. night · tracking shows only on a one-game night and is new — bet it or skip it, it is graded either way. Everything else that clears the filters is held with its reason; holds with a positive record sit under the Held-plays filter, losing groups are not rendered at all. The allowlist is reviewed every Tuesday and changes only on the graded table (last review 2026-10-19).
Sunday is the week. Most games are Sunday, so that is where 22–36 plays and the week's record come from. A Thursday or Monday has one game and one to three plays; the night itself is close to a coin flip even when the plays are right. On those nights the day tab opens with the night's slips, and the props are small adds.
🎟 Parlays: four slips, honest chances. Under each date, pick a venue (Books / Poly / Kalshi / PP). Each slip is one line — tap it for the legs. SAFE stacks 80%+ floor legs whose own game log is clean; MAIN stacks the surest legs to even money; MID stacks further to about +300; the TD ticket is the two or three likeliest scorers. A leg's chance starts from the market plus a fifth of our disagreement and is lifted when its game log is clean, because such legs have hit about 93% against 80% said. "Our chance" is the number to trust; the fair price is what that chance is worth. On a one-game night SAFE caps at four legs, two per team, and yards legs need a real 80% before any lift. Lotto, super-lotto and TD long-shot slips were removed from the page on 2026-10-19 — they are still graded, and the Plan tab shows their record.
🎲 Sims: the teaser is the bet; the rest is shape. The simulator starts from the market's own line, so it does not claim to pick winners better than the book — the win percentages are the book's favourites priced honestly, and we never bet a favourite moneyline straight. The card at the top is the one game-side bet with a record: six-point teaser legs chosen by rule (underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 teased through 3 and 7), built into three-leg tickets at +160 or better, or a two-leg at −120 when only two legs are left. Shop the price — at +140 the three-leg loses its edge.
🪜 Alt lines and 🧩 PrizePicks are lines, not slips. Alt lines are the deep floors (80%+ by the blended chance) that make good legs and poor straight bets. The PrizePicks board lists their standard lines, fantasy score, Goblins and Demons with our chance of the pick on every row; the slips built from them sit on the Parlays tab under PP.
Probabilities are conditional on the player taking the field. Every book voids a player prop and returns your stake if the player does not play a snap, so these are the odds given he suits up. A VOID RISK badge means a scratch is a live possibility. Out and Doubtful players never reach the sheet; a Questionable player's status is only settled on the inactives list 90 minutes before kickoff, after the morning build.
Results fill in day by day, under today's rules. Each day's record appears on its tab once its games are final and the stats are published. Rows are marked won or lost at the line and price shown, flat one unit per play; voids are excluded. Day panels regrade every day under the rules in force today, so the shown record is what the current allowlist would have produced; held plays are graded beside it so each hold can be judged.
Edge is against the de-vigged market; we never publish a projected stat line. The book's price with its margin removed, compared to our probability; two-sided props against their own paired side, anytime touchdown normalised against the scorers its game total implies. Our point estimates run high on exactly the headline players books post lines for while the probabilities at those lines are calibrated — so we price the probability and show you that instead. The book count is how many books post that exact line; a lone line is usually stale, not generous.
486 plays withheld this week. They cleared the filters but are held back: 4 passing tds overs, 2 passing tds unders, 26 receptions overs, 86 receptions unders, 11 rushing yards unders — no consistent record — this group was not profitable in 5 of 6 graded weeks (2026 wk1-6, trim 2026-10-19); graded, not shown; 6 receptions overs, 30 receptions unders, 20 rushing yards unders — the model and the book disagree by 25+ points; at that size it has been a role change the book knew about (2026 wk1-3: said 79%, hit 52%); 17 passing yards unders — passing yards — no record: unders 30–49 −15.9u over 2026 wk1-5; held until the model earns one; 41 receiving yards overs, 31 rushing yards overs — yardage over — books shade these lines up and the prior misses a shrinking role; model-favoured overs hit 39% (rec yds) and 33% (rush) vs a 53% break-even, 2026 wk1-3, negative every week; 116 receiving yards unders — measured negative EV (realised 46.8% vs a 53.3% break-even, n=124); 19 tackles overs, 64 tackles unders — first week this market has posted; never priced against a book before, held until graded; 1 receptions over, 3 receptions unders — no NFL history — projected from the depth chart alone, a prior whose level swings 15% between seasons; held until graded weeks say otherwise; 9 passing yards overs — passing yards — no record: overs 24–26 −1.1u over 2026 wk1-5; held until the model earns one. The graded record, not the backtest, decides what shows — and each day's tab shows how the held plays actually did.
Generated 2026-11-02 23:19 UTC · 3981 projections priced by the market, 519 cleared the filters · odds pulled 2026-11-02T22:19:25+00:00 · Model probabilities are conditional on participation.
Not affiliated with the NFL or any sportsbook. For entertainment; bet responsibly.
Not affiliated with the NFL or any sportsbook. For entertainment; bet responsibly.