MLB daily · NFL weekly · Live since April 2026

Every pick tracked. Every day graded. Every result published.

Sim cards, HRR, strikeouts, value bets, parlays and the Explorer — the full MLB slate before first pitch, plus a weekly NFL slate. One subscription.

— games graded — favored ML hit rate — +2.5 safety rate
Model track record

MLB lifetime accuracy · — days tracked

Every number below pulled live from our public accuracy log — updated after every game day. These are MLB results; NFL plays are graded every week on the NFL tab's Results section.

—Alt Over K rate
—Hit/game rate
—Sim favored ML
—Sim +2.5 safety
Recent form

Last — game days

Rolling 7-day window — refreshes each time the model grades a new slate. Same live source as lifetime numbers above.

—Alt Over K rate
—Hit/game rate
—Sim favored ML
—Sim +2.5 safety
What's inside · MLB

Fifteen betting categories, one card

Every game day, 1–2 hours before first pitch, our model pulls fresh MLB data, weather, ballpark factors, and sportsbook odds to build a full cheat sheet ready to bet.

Sim Cards

Monte Carlo simulation per game — win probability, F5, NRFI, run line, +2.5 safety, Under 1.5 first inning. Calibrated on —+ graded games.

— Sim ML lifetime

HRR Top 10

Best batters likely to go Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. Flagship pick category since launch — surfaces the day's highest-conviction batter opportunities.

— Top-10 lifetime hit rate

Daily Parlays

Three diversified 3-leg parlays every day — K Duo (pitchers), HRR Safe Trio (batters Over 0.5), Hit Stack (batters Over 1.5). Auto-deduped, zero overlap.

Hit Stack: +142% lifetime ROI

Strikeout Alt Ladder

Full alt-K ladder for every starter (3+, 5+, 7+, 9+, 11+). MAE just 1.9 K — the sharpest prop line on the slate.

— Alt Over lifetime

HR Model Top 10

Gradient-boosted HR predictions using Statcast, arsenal matchups, park factors, and bullpen exposure. Edge picks against sportsbook lines.

+37.8% ROI on tracked edge picks

Hits per Game

One top hit pick per team per game — the batter most likely to record a hit tonight, scored on career vs starter, platoon splits, hot/cold streaks, and pitcher K profile.

— lifetime hit rate
What's inside · NFL

Six NFL categories, every week

Thursday, Sunday and Monday slates on the NFL tab, built the same way: model versus market, best price across the books, every play graded after the week. New for 2026 — hit rates publish as the sample builds.

Game Sims

A sim card per game — win probability, spread, total, and the total-points distribution behind the number.

Spread · Total · Distribution

Plays by Prop

Passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, passing TDs and tackles — each with the model's hit chance, the edge in points, and the best price.

Core = validated edge band · 3+ books

Anytime TD

Touchdown scorers priced against every book, surfaced only inside the edge band that has held up in testing.

Edge band 3–8 pts

Alt Lines — Favourites

Safer alternate spreads for the week's favourites, with the sim's cover probability at each rung.

Cover probability by rung

6-Point Teaser Legs

Underdogs at +1.5 to +2.5 teased through the 3 and the 7 — selected by rule, never by the sim, so the legs stay honest.

Through the 3 and the 7

Weekly Results

Every play graded after the week and published on the NFL tab, win or lose. Hit rates appear here once there's a season's worth to stand on.

Graded in public · rates coming
Live example

One sim card, everything at a glance

Each game gets a full simulation card — win probabilities, expected runs, distribution, NRFI / F5 / RL / +2.5 / U1.5 — all in one view. This is what members see.

Sample
NYY @ CHC
7:05 PM ET
10K
SIMS
NYY
Max Fried
32%
3.9 R
VS
CHC
Colin Rea
68%
5.2 R
Expected total
9.1 R
NRFI
44%
U1.5 1st
73%
Inside the app

Built to be bet from.

Not a spreadsheet. Every number comes with the case behind it, priced against the books you already use.

Pricing

Simple pricing

Same cheat sheet, the Explorer and the NFL slate on both plans. Cancel anytime.

Weekly
$10 /week
New users: 7 days free — no charge until day 8.
  • Full daily cheat sheet
  • Sim Cards · HRR · HR Model · Strikeouts · Value Bets · Parlays
  • Explorer — every batter, model vs market
  • NFL weekly slate included
  • Delivered 1–2 hours before first pitch
  • Daily accuracy grading
  • Rolling 7-day + lifetime stats
  • Mobile responsive
Monthly
$25 /month
Save ~40% vs paying weekly.
  • Full daily cheat sheet
  • Sim Cards · HRR · HR Model · Strikeouts · Value Bets · Parlays
  • Explorer — every batter, model vs market
  • NFL weekly slate included
  • Delivered 1–2 hours before first pitch
  • Daily accuracy grading
  • Rolling 7-day + lifetime stats
  • Mobile responsive
Common questions

FAQ

When are the picks delivered?
MLB: every game day, 1–2 hours before the first pitch. The model waits until lineups and odds are locked in, then publishes the full cheat sheet — usually mid-afternoon Pacific for standard evening slates, earlier for day games. NFL: one slate a week, published ahead of the week's first kickoff.
Do you guarantee wins?
No — no one honest does. Sports betting has variance. We share the model, the numbers, and lifetime tracked results. Bet responsibly.
What sports do you cover?
MLB and NFL — both included in your subscription, at one price. MLB runs daily all season and through the postseason; NFL is a weekly slate on the NFL tab, live since Week 1 of the 2026 season. The accuracy numbers on this page are MLB's tracked record; NFL plays are graded every week and published on the NFL tab's Results section, win or lose.
What is the Explorer?
A members-only page with every batter on tonight's MLB slate. Open a hitter and you get his props priced against the book with the reasons, the five-pillar HR matchup behind the Great HR Matchup badge, and his form, count tendencies and zones. It rebuilds through the afternoon as lineups post.
Do you send notifications?
Optional browser push, off by default. Turn it on from the bell in the app and you get up to three pings a day: the night-before preview, the official slate before first pitch, and a lineup refresh when the day's lineups post. Nothing else, ever.
Where can I see results?
Every MLB pick is graded after the last game of the day and published on our public results page and in the app's Results tab, including the days we lose. NFL results are graded weekly on the NFL tab. Nothing is edited after the fact.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. Cancel from your Memberstack dashboard any time. If you're on the Weekly plan and within your 7-day free trial, you're not charged.
What's the difference between Weekly and Monthly?
Same cheat sheet, same picks, same delivery time. Weekly ($10) is best if you want to try it without a long commitment. Monthly ($25) saves you ~40% vs paying weekly — best if you know you want daily picks.
Can I switch plans later?
Yes. Change plans any time from your Memberstack dashboard. Changes take effect at your next billing cycle.
Do I need a sportsbook account to use this?
The card shows suggested picks with the best available book prices. You'll need your own account at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, or wherever you bet.
What's the refund policy?
New Weekly users get 7 days free — no card charged until day 8, cancel any time before then to avoid any charge. Monthly bills on day one. After billing starts, cancellations end future charges but past periods aren't refunded unless there's a service issue.