Projections, sim cards, player props and the Explorer across three sports — model against market, best price across the books, every play graded in public afterwards. Free to read, no account, nothing to pay.
Every number below pulled live from our public accuracy log — updated after every game day. These are MLB results; NFL plays are graded every week on the NFL tab's Results section.
Rolling 7-day window — refreshes each time the model grades a new slate. Same live source as lifetime numbers above.
Every game day, 1–2 hours before first pitch, our model pulls fresh MLB data, weather, ballpark factors, and sportsbook odds to build a full cheat sheet ready to bet.
Monte Carlo simulation per game — win probability, F5, NRFI, run line, +2.5 safety, Under 1.5 first inning. Calibrated on —+ graded games.
— Sim ML lifetimeBest batters likely to go Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. Flagship pick category since launch — surfaces the day's highest-conviction batter opportunities.
— Top-10 lifetime hit rateThree diversified 3-leg parlays every day — K Duo (pitchers), HRR Safe Trio (batters Over 0.5), Hit Stack (batters Over 1.5). Auto-deduped, zero overlap.
Hit Stack: +142% lifetime ROIFull alt-K ladder for every starter (3+, 5+, 7+, 9+, 11+). MAE just 1.9 K — the sharpest prop line on the slate.
— Alt Over lifetimeGradient-boosted HR predictions using Statcast, arsenal matchups, park factors, and bullpen exposure. Edge picks against sportsbook lines.
+37.8% ROI on tracked edge picksOne top hit pick per team per game — the batter most likely to record a hit tonight, scored on career vs starter, platoon splits, hot/cold streaks, and pitcher K profile.
— lifetime hit rateThursday, Sunday and Monday slates on the NFL tab, built the same way: model versus market, best price across the books, every play graded after the week. New for 2026 — hit rates publish as the sample builds.
A sim card per game — win probability, spread, total, and the total-points distribution behind the number.
Spread · Total · DistributionPassing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions, passing TDs and tackles — each with the model's hit chance, the edge in points, and the best price.
Core = validated edge band · 3+ booksTouchdown scorers priced against every book, surfaced only inside the edge band that has held up in testing.
Edge band 3–8 ptsSafer alternate spreads for the week's favourites, with the sim's cover probability at each rung.
Cover probability by rungUnderdogs at +1.5 to +2.5 teased through the 3 and the 7 — selected by rule, never by the sim, so the legs stay honest.
Through the 3 and the 7Every play graded after the week and published on the NFL tab, win or lose. Hit rates appear here once there's a season's worth to stand on.
Graded in public · rates comingThe board rebuilds through the morning and again about an hour before the first tip, as injuries land and lineups firm up. Same discipline as the other two: model against market, best price across the books, every play graded the next morning — the losing nights published with the winning ones.
A card per game: win probability, the sim's spread and total, who is out, and which teammates absorb their minutes and usage.
Sim · Outs · RotationsPoints, rebounds, assists, threes, PRA and double-doubles — each with our chance at the posted line, the edge, and the best price across eight books.
Six markets · 8 booksThe part that is actually ours: when a starter sits, who picks up the minutes and the shots. Every projection is conditional on the player taking the floor.
Teammates-out redistributionA small number of tickets a night, with the legs' graded record beside them. Nothing is sized for you — the record is there so you can judge it.
Graded, win or loseWho opens the scoring, from jump-ball rates and each player's share of his team's first shots. Labelled for fun and graded for its own record — never a value claim.
For fun · graded anywayEvery player we price: the full distribution at any line you type, game logs against the line posted that night, splits with and without teammates, and a shot chart.
Check any lineEach game gets a full simulation card — win probabilities, expected runs, distribution, NRFI / F5 / RL / +2.5 / U1.5 — all in one view. This is what members see.
Not a spreadsheet. Every number comes with the case behind it, priced against the books you already use.
Sharp Nine used to be a subscription. It is not any more — every page is open, there is no login, no card, and nothing held back from you that a paying reader would have seen.
NBA nightly, NFL weekly, MLB daily in season — plus both Explorers. There is no reduced free tier; this is the same product that was behind the paywall.
Every play is graded after the games and published with the losses included. That was the point when it cost money and it is still the point now.
Not tips, not advice, and not a promise. It is a model's opinion next to the market's, with the honest disagreement shown. Bet your own money on your own judgment.
Free, no account, nothing to pay. Every play graded in public afterwards.
Open the app