Tonight's props Model vs market — up to 5 offerings

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HR matchup Model P(HR) tonight · five factor pillars · market odds as information

HR matchup data unavailable — the HR model had no row for this batter.
How to read this card · what each number means, in plain English
Model P(HR)
Our chance he homers tonight. A typical batter is about 11%. 15%+ is strong, 18%+ is elite. The line under it shows how often batters given a similar number actually homered.
Market
The best sportsbook price to homer and the chance that price implies. +300 means about a 25% chance; the longer the odds, the less the book expects it. Reference only, not a recommendation.
Edge vs book
Our chance minus the book's. Positive means we like him more than the book does. Negative means the book is more bullish than we are.
Lineup
Confirmed means he is definitely playing. Batting 1st through 5th means more trips to the plate. Projected means wait for lineups before betting.
ISO vs LHP / RHP
Isolated power: extra bases per at-bat against pitchers who throw with tonight's hand. League average .150; .200+ is real power; .250+ is elite. Below .120 is a weak fit.
Barrel%
How often he hits the ball hard at a home-run angle. League average 8%; 12%+ is a slugger. The last-14-day number is form: 12%+ on 10+ batted balls counts as hot and lowers the badge's model bar from 18% to 17%.
Pitcher HR/9 · barrel% allowed
Homers tonight's pitcher allows per nine innings, and how often hitters barrel him. League average 1.20 HR/9; 1.40+ is homer-prone, under 0.90 is tough.
Park HR factor
How the ballpark plays for hitters on his side of the plate. 1.00 is neutral; 1.05+ helps, 0.95 and below hurts.
Temp · wind · air
Warm air, wind blowing out and thin air all add carry. 1.05+ is a good night for homers; 0.95 and below is not. Air density under 1.00 means the ball carries better than a cool, still day.
Opp bullpen HR/9
Homers allowed by the relievers he may face late. 1.30+ is a leaky bullpen, a bonus if he gets a fourth or fifth at-bat.
Green pillar
That factor is better than league average for hitting a homer. Grey means exactly neutral: no help, no harm. 3 or more green out of 5 is a matchup worth a look even without the badge.
… if he plays
Projected batters carry a discount because scratches happen. This is the same model number with that discount removed — what he'd show once the lineup confirms him.
⚠️ Close
A confirmed batter who missed the badge by one thing, either a model chance just under his bar (18%, or 17% with hot form) or only 2 of 5 pillars green. The label says which. Worth a look, but these are not badges and are not graded.
🚀 Watch
A projected batter who would earn the badge on his "if he plays" number. Becomes the full badge automatically once his lineup posts; stays a watch if he sits.
🚀 Great HR matchup
All three at once: model chance 18%+ (17%+ if his last 14 days are hot, 12%+ barrels), confirmed lineup, 3 of 5 pillars green. In a 54-day test those batters homered 19% of the time vs 11% for everyone; hot batters in the 17-18% band homered 22%. Roughly double the odds, never a guarantee.

Power profile Season contact quality · last 14 days · splits vs LHP / RHP (season-long, not head-to-head)

Power profile unavailable for this batter.

Pitch arsenal Batter whiff and K% vs each of tonight's pitcher's pitches

Arsenal data unavailable for this matchup.

Count progression Pitcher's top pitch + batter's whiff rate per count

Count-progression data unavailable for this matchup.

Damage × Location Season-long zones (not head-to-head) — where the batter crushes vs where tonight's pitcher throws

Zone data unavailable — need at least 15 batted balls + 100 pitcher pitches on record.

Career H2H Every prior at-bat between them

No prior at-bats on record vs tonight's starter — pure blind matchup.

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Explorer — model vs market for every batter on tonight's slate. Props, matchup and history update each morning when the slate publishes.